W's Guest Columnist Presents September 4th: Buscemi, Not Steve

Before today, it had always been just Shryke doing the weekly new releases column. But W (who has taken Mr. I's place on the column totem pole) decided that it would be a great idea to get a revolving series of columnists to double the Fantaverse weekly reading pleasure. Therefore, I signed up to do the first of this series of columns (along with the first column of the next three months).

Originally, I was going to do a recap for the weekend but I shall do something similar to Mr. I's Studs and Duds list (my Pros and Cons series is different than this). And here we go.

September 4th

Take It: Gamer

Though it will probably be a one-week wonder, it should be worth a few Top 5 points, $25 million at the box office and an IMDb rating of 6. In a weak weekend, this is your pick.

Don't Take It: Carriers

This long-delayed thriller is being dumped into select markets by the now-defunct Paramount Vantage. And if you didn't see the box office numbers on the last Paramount Vantage dump (The Marc Pease Experience), please look right now.

Think Beforehand: Amreeka

This was a hit at Sundance and could manage some PTA points but the distributor (National Geographic) seems to only do well when they distribute an IMAX film. I still don't know how they will sell it to an audience wanting a comedy rather than a National Geographic-type film. Take it only if you need something cheap.

September 11th

Take It: Sorority Row

For its low price, Sorority Row could have some firepower and bring in an audience wanting some early Fall scares. It should have no problem making back its number and will likely be a top pick for September.

Don't Take It: Beyond A Reasonable Doubt

Anchor Bay is distributing. That basically means a dump into 10 to 75 theatres, a middling PTA and a DVD release in three months. Avoid.

Think Beforehand: Whiteout

It's got Kate Beckinsale and is based on a Eisner Award winning graphic novel but the multiple delays and competition could hurt it at the box office. I expect about $30 million, a Top 5 point and an IMDb rating of 6.5-7 but think beforehand.

September 18th

Take It: Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs

Let's see: animated, 3-D, based on a beloved children's book. Take it or be killed.

Don't Take It: Jennifer's Body

Let's see: horror comedy, from a now-defunct studio, starring a tabloid item. Take it and be killed (he, he, he).

Think Beforehand: Paris

The film was a big hit in international release but you can't be sure with the American waters when films hit here long after the international success. It could win the PTA title or it could curl up and die. Who knows.

September 25th

Take It: Capitalism: A Love Story

Love him or hate him, Michael Moore has done a lot for the documentary genre. His Fahrenheit 9/11 is the highest grossing documentary of all-time and Sicko is the fourth highest grossing documentary of all-time. For his newest film, he will focus on the recent economic crisis. Some will shocked. Some will be offended. But others will flock to see it. Expect some high per theatre averages on opening weekend and even some Top 5 points on its October 2nd wide expansion.

Don't Take It: I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell

There is only one audience for this film: drunken frat boys. And do you expect this audience to take a break from buying mass quantities of Keystone Light to see this potentially half-assed adaptation of the drunken frat boys Bible? I sure don't.

Think Beforehand: Pandorum

The film looks entertaining when you see the trailers and the posters and could have been the #1 film this week had they kept the old release date. But now at this date, can it find an audience? You will probably get a decent IMDb rating and one Top 5 point but probably not much else. Choose at your risk.

I would have said Take it: Nothing on the first weekend, though I have Gamer on a couple of slates. Amreeka could get some PTA and that would be enough for me considering its low price.

I'm starting to think about Sorority Row, though Whiteout has always looked DOA to me considering its price (for $5 I might have taken it)

Still not sure about JB, but you hate it enough that it might do well

Pandorum looks DOA as well because of the lack of marketing. Lastly, and possibly the biggest thing, isn't Capitalism a wide release? Or is there something I'm not getting here?

Good column. Impressive for a first time. I thought we were going to get 10 paragraphs about Jennifer's Body when I saw it was a monthly preview type column.

Capitalism will be in New York and Los Angeles on the first week and then wide on October 2nd. And in New York and Los Angeles, Michael Moore's films usually have monster PTA's.

Good first go Boosh. There are a few of those I am on the fence with. Gamer is the most relevant since I need to decide whether or not I will have it in my leagues and it opens this week. I guess for $9 being a 'one-week wonder' won't be a bad thing in the end.

What else are you on the fence on?

Sorority Row and Jennifers Body. I'm thinking of picking up one of them and can't decide yet.

Take Sorority Row. Straight horror always does better than horror comedy. Also the ad campaign should be a lot better.

I've seen spots for Sorority, but not JB. I think I've pretty much dumped both from my slates.

Yep. Just did my slates and neither featured. Gamer didn't feature in it either. Talk about jumping off the fence

Yep, I dumped all of my Gamers and a few Surrogates, though I still have 9 Surrogates left...

I still prefer No Impact Man over Amreeka. But that's just me.

I picked Amreeka because I figured a culture comedy would have better expansion possibilities and appeal than an obscure documentary.

Shrykespeare wrote:I still prefer No Impact Man over Amreeka. But that's just me.

As you know, I moved NIM to a couple of slates earlier today.

I've seen some JB spots, mostly on MTV. I saw 3 alone during The Real World. Still think it'll do 25M total, but most of that will be extremely front-loaded. Could be #2 or #3 its OW, but #8 the next. Who knows...

Looks like you got 2/3 for the first week.

It won't be a Top 5 film, Banks. All three other openers and at least two holdovers will cause that.

I think Boush would have been dead on if he switched Amreeka and Gamer.