Summer 2009 off to a rocky start?

Am I the only one that thinks this summer is looking to be kind of a dissapointment? The year started off huge with movies like Gran Torino, Paul Blart, Taken, He's Just Not That Into You, Friday the 13th, Madea Goes to Jail, Knowing, I Love You Man, Monsters Vs Aliens, Haunting in Connecticut, Fast and Furious, Hannah Montana, and Obsessed all exceeding or meeting expectations and bringing in a lot of money for that time of year. It left many, myself included, expecting a huge summer. But that has not been the case if you look at may's releases

X Men Wolverine- Opened on the low end of expectations and saw a huge 2nd weekend drop of 69%, it has since recovered slightly but has lost any chance of crossing 200 million

Ghosts of Girlfriends Past was suppossed to be sold counter programing like What Happens in Vegas (20.1mill opening, 80mill total), but it stumbled with a 15 million start despite the presence of McCounghey. Despite good legs it still going to finish well below what was expected.

Star Trek- The only may release so far to exceed expectations. It looks to be one of the only movies in may to cross 200million.

Next Day Air- The usually reliable urban audience didnt show up for this...it didt even make the top 5

Angels and Demons- the sequel to the huge hit The Davinci Code couldnt even muster 50million on opening weekend, despite the return of Hanks and Howard, a prime release date, and no competing new releases. Alot of excuses have been made about how many copies of the book were sold and how it was never going to match the Davinci Code but the studio would not have greenlit this for a 150 million budget if it was only going to do about 140 million.

Terminator Salvation- At one was being thought to make over 120 million over its 5day debut, instead it is now fighting to stay above 70million for the 5 days. With negative buzz already building it is not likely to have legs and will struggle to make it past 150 million.

Night at the Museam 2- It is going to win the memorial day weekend but it wont even top 70 million for the 4 day. With alot of family competition coming up it needed alot more than that to come close to the originals 250million

Dance Flick- with the other releases faltering this one had a chance to breakout but it failed and now will stuggle to finish its entire run with 30 million.

Those are not good numbers. Only one movie so far can really be called a hit, and that is Star Trek. The only movies left in may are Up and Drag Me to Hell. Both have great early reviews but Up has a 60 million ceiling for its opening and Drag Me to Hell would be the first horror film in several years to cross 100million (no I am not including I Am Legend as a horror film).
So that means that Star Trek and maybe Up will be the only films in May to cross 200 million. 2008 had 2 pass 300 million, and 2007 had 3 pass 300 million.

So I ask is this just a case of to high expectation? Are the movies in May just not appealing? Why are they not living up to the hype?

And what does this mean to the rest of the summer?

It's a mixture of the things you mention. First, this summer's blockbusters suck ass. Star Trek is the lone bright spot so far, and everything else has been even worse than expected. Even the counter programming was better last year (Vegas, Made of Honor, The Strangers, etc).

Second, probably because the first quarter was so huge, we thought that would translate to a huge summer. When possibly the opposite is in effect: people are all movie'd out by now.

Might this be the first year in which the Jan-Apr period outgrosses the summer?

(Probably not, with Transformers and Harry Potter.)

I'd say it's the combination of two reasons:

-The recession and people simply wanting to escape from turmoil and cold weather. That is why Paul Blart: Mall Cop, Gran Torino, Taken, Coraline, Hotel For Dogs, Knowing and many others are performing way above expectations. In any other year, they probably would have done half of the numbers. Now that it is warmer and morale is slightly higher, people are going to find other ways to kill time (such as doing things outdoors and recreational activities).

-The 2007 WGA strike and the eventual work stoppage. This caused many projects to become delayed or canned all together along with many other people either refusing to work until a decision was made or others simply not being able to work due to the strike. Only now are we seeing the effects of that strike. This is also why films that normally wouldn't open in the summer (such as The Hangover, Imagine That, Drag Me To Hell, I Love You Beth Cooper and Next Day Air) are receiving summer releases. The studios need to fill that void left by the strike.

May's not over yet. Well, in my opinion, can't call something a dud until it actually is a dud.

agreed with jacko, and so there arent going to be any $300M+ films, I bet by the end of the month that the total amount of money made in may will be one, if not the highest, may amounts ever. So far the percentages have been better than last year for the past three weekends.

I don't think the summer will be bad money wise, perhaps down a little year over year, but I do believe that it fall within a small margin of last years numbers. Less 300M makers, but still good money all around. And there certainly are things that could surprise us, last year I would have never guessed that Hancock would do as well as it did.

Also, on your Angels and Demons comment, I think that the studio would still have green light the film knowing that it'd gross over 300million worldwide (DHD just said that by Tuesday it will have reached that number). Just because it's under performing in N.A. compared to The Da Vinci Code doesn't make it a bomb.

I do think you should notice that this May will most likely be the biggest May ever. I really want to see how Up an Drag Me to Hell do before judging May, but I think you are exaggerating. Dance Flick was never going to break out, Night at the Museum 2 was not supposed to come close to the original's total, and Wolverine did not open on the low end of expectations.

J-Man wrote: Just because it's under performing in N.A. compared to The Da Vinci Code doesn't make it a bomb.

I never said Angels and Demons was a bomb, a movie can underwhelm without being a bomb.

J.I. wrote:I do think you should notice that this May will most likely be the biggest May ever

Im referring to the individual perforance of the movies, not the overall numbers

J.I. wrote:Dance Flick was never going to break out, Night at the Museum 2 was neer supposed to come close to the original's total, and Wolverine did not open on the low end of expectations.

Dance Flick would not have been given a memorial day release and the marketing blitz that it did if it was only going to open with 11 million. The studio wanted more

Night at the Museam is not a bomb by any means, but with Up, Land of the Lost, and Imagine That going for the same audience it needed a stronger start to keep from falling off in the coming weekends.

Also im pretty sure that Wolverine is being regarded as more of a disappointment than a success.

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=11640


this article helps demonstrate my point

I think this May is far superior to last May in terms of quality, if nothing else.

SpiderMan 3 and Indiana Jones were big successes despite the fact that they were widely considered to be inferior sequels. Speed Racer was bad, and though I loved Prince Caspian, I'm in the minority. I hated The Strangers and won't even see Sex in the City.

This year, while Wolverine has disappointed, I liked it. I also liked Angels & Demons and Terminator. I fully expect to LOVE Up, and Star Trek was absolutely stellar.

Don't know what that means, but I've really enjoyed myself more this year.

June, however? That's another story entirely. Last June had Get Smart, Incredible Hulk and Wall-E. This year? Only Pelham and Transformers look good to me.

This was the 19th biggest weekend of all time.

And nickb, never mention Box Office Prophets on this website. Its almost as accurate as using IMDB's forums as box office trackers.

shryke didnt spiderman come out in 2007? but yes a good point i too am very happy with the quality of films this summer which UP should continue next week. i dont think june looks all that bad. i personally love jack black and will ferral though so that might have something to do with it.

I agree with Shryke. I dragged myself to watch May films last year, and that was back when I could watch them for free. Now while I haven't fell in love with of the big tentpoles yet, they are a lot better then last year.

And Land of the Lost is rated PG-13. Not exactly the same type of audience as NATM 2.

Shrykespeare wrote:
June, however? That's another story entirely. Last June had Get Smart, Incredible Hulk and Wall-E. This year? Only Pelham and Transformers look good to me.

im actually looking forward to a lot in june, hangover, proposal, year one, transformers, hurt locker

nickb1016 wrote:I never said Angels and Demons was a bomb, a movie can underwhelm without being a bomb.

Not to play quote wars, but I took your statement as the movie bombing when you claimed it didn't make enough money to justify it's existence (which is from your statement that it wouldn't have been green-lighted), and that is my definition of a movie bombing. I was just pointing out it's doing fantastic on a worldwide basis, enough that Sony would have green-lighted it regardless of its underwhelming NA gross.

June is looking good. July and especially August are looking weak. June has Pelham,Hangover,Year One, Land Of The Lost and of course that little Transformers film

To me, June looks weaker than May. The only sure things are Pelham and Transformers. Everything else can go either way.

Examples:
Land Of The Lost can be either Elf or Speed Racer
The Hangover can be Wedding Crashers or Very Bad Things
My Life In Ruins can be How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days or Connie and Carla
Imagine That can be Daddy Day Care or Meet Dave
Year One can be Superbad or The Love Guru
The Proposal can be What Happens In Vegas or New In Town
My Sister's Keeper can be The Notebook or Running With Scissors (best recent title I could think of here)

I don't think Pelham is a sure thing...the trailer looks awful...is there any reviews for it yet? It disappoints me that a movie w/ Travolta and Washington looks so shitty...it looks like the same plot I've seen in a ton of movies.

The Hangover will be either Superbad or Obsessed. Either way, pick it up.
Transformers will be worth the price, though I'm not sure exactly how big it will be.
Pelham looks awful and though advertised well those advertisements are vague and awful. The best chance its got is to be worth its price, which is really not what I'm looking for. Maybe in a league where you try to hit a $500 M target it would be a good pick (hey that's an idea)...
Bullock + Reynolds is a no-brainer for the Proposal.
Imagine That will at the very least be worth the price.
Land of the Lost might be worth the price, but there are better options.
My Life in Ruins hasn't been promoted and will die a quick death.
My Sisters Keeper should have been straight to DVD like other films that are like it.
Stay away from Year One, though it could catch on the chances are awful.

Catch my BO Bonanza in "Free for All" I already said all of this...

brockman81 wrote:I don't think Pelham is a sure thing...the trailer looks awful...is there any reviews for it yet? It disappoints me that a movie w/ Travolta and Washington looks so shitty...it looks like the same plot I've seen in a ton of movies.

I said that too, last night...

brockman81 wrote:I don't think Pelham is a sure thing...the trailer looks awful...is there any reviews for it yet? It disappoints me that a movie w/ Travolta and Washington looks so shitty...it looks like the same plot I've seen in a ton of movies.

Like maybe in the original Taking of Pelham 123?

Like maybe in the original Taking of Pelham 123?

Exactly!

Shryke I think Imagine That has its box office locked in. Nickelodeon movies without a big pull normally get $70 million.

Well, May looks to end with a bang.

Trek vs. Up vs. NATM 2 for the May crown?

JackO wrote:Well, May looks to end with a bang.

Trek vs. Up vs. NATM 2 for the May crown?

I think NATM 2 might edge this one. Depends totally on how it drops against Up! in the upcoming weeks though.

Trek would be a worthy winner, but i was hoping the winner would have a 300M+ total for May.