The most competitive weekend of the summer...maybe ever

The upcoming memorial weekend is one of the most exciting in recent memory as 2 films with the potential to open with over 100million over the holiday frame open head to head, along with 2 strong holdovers. Terminator Salvation vs. Night at the Museam vs. Star Trek vs. Angels and Demons alone could bring in over 200million over just the 3 day portion this weekend. With so many big movies at once can they all make it?


As far as the huge competition between Museaum and Terminater I think we should look back to the weekend of Wanted and Wall-E, and that of Shrek 2 and The Day After Tomorrow

The Top 10
Wall-E vs Wanted
1. Wall-E 63.1
2. Wanted 50.9
3. Get Smart 20.2
4. Panda 11.7
5. Hulk 9.6
6. Love Guru 5.3
7. Indiana 5.1
8. Happening 3.9
9. Sex 3.8
10. Zohan 3.2

This is a perfect comparison weekend...a family film against an action film. WallE was animated and Night a the Museam is live action, but they both appealed to younger and older audiences. Wanted was a suprise hit and not a sequel but it is evidence that an action film and a family film can both post huge numbers on opening weekend. There was also some solid competition from holdovers like Get Smart. It should also be noted that this weekend was the 2nd highest grossing frame of the year behind only the debut weekend of the Dark Knight.


Top 10
Shrek 2 vs. Day After Tomorrow
1. Shrek 2 72.5 (82.5 inflation adj)
2. Day After 68.7 (78.2 inflation adj)
3. Troy 11.9
4. Helen 11.0
5. Soul Plane 5.7
6. Van Helsing 5.3
7. Mean Girls 5.1
8. Man on Fire 2.3
9. Super Size 1.1
10. 13 on 30 1.1

This is a better weekend given that it is also memorial day. Also important is that this was also 2004 and the numbers for both movies would be much higher today. Shrek 2 was also in its second week, but once again it shows that both movies can pull in huge numbers.

The only problem is I cant think of a single weekend in which 2 huge openers went against 2 holdovers as strong as Trek and Demons. Not to mention Wolverine, Dance Flick, and Ghosts also in the mix. One thing is certain any movies left over from april are in for huge drops.

Good analysis Nick. I enjoyed it. I do think Terminator will overcome the family flick this time around though. The pg-13 rating will help a lot. Going to be a hell of a weekend. I hope to catch three movies, Star Trek, Angels and Demons, and of course, T4.

I may see Terminator on Thursday and Dance Flick on Saturday.

Dance Flick will finish in the Top 10. In fact, it should at least be in the Top 5. The directors' appeal and the trailer reaction alone should guarantee that.

You hated Hot Rod and Transformers, but you want to see fucking Dance Flick. That should do it for any hope we've ever had of getting along.

geezer9687 wrote:You hated Hot Rod and Transformers, but you want to see fucking Dance Flick. That should do it for any hope we've ever had of getting along.

Did you ever watch In Living Color? That alone shows you how more talented The Wayans Brothers are than Andy Samberg and The Lonely Island. This is their return to the genre that made them famous in the first place.

I'm Gonna Git You Sucka (a spoof of blaxploitation films) and Don't Be A Menace To South Central (a spoof of urban films from the 1990's) are also worth watching.

I am a fan of the Scary Movie franchise, Hot Rod, and Will Ferrell and I have zero desire to see Dane Flick. Look what happened with Disaster Movie. The time for films like this has come and gone, the movie it spoofs the most in its ads is a Julia stiles movie from a decade ago.

Dance Flick missing the top 10 may just be wishful thinking, but the top 5 is pretty far out of reach. It is tracking in the single digits for the 4 day holiday

Did you ever watch Little Man? I'm not denying that the Wayans brothers can be good. And Don't Be A Menace to South Central While Drinking Your Juice in the Hood is great. But come on? Have you even watched the trailer. How can you say it looks any better than Meet the Spartans or Disaster Movie?

Little Man was bad but Dance Flick actually looks decent. It looks nothing like Disaster Movie or any of the Friedberg/Seltzer films in the fact that it actually spoofing something that didn't come in the past three months or something that was stupid in begin with.

Also, it spoofs more than Save The Last Dance. They also spoof Step Up, You Got Served and other dance films. And you've got to admit the "you bring your baby to class?" bit was hilarious.

Dance movies are already stupid to begin with, first of all. And you mean to tell me that a girl rocketing a baby out of her vagina, which then starts break dancing on a gym floor is not like the Seltzer/Friedberg spoofs? I'm pretty sure you are going to be on the very lonely side of that argument.

Umm.... Dance Flick will be bigger than expected, though nothing near large. T4 will slightly disapoint, Night at the Museum will be slightly larger than its tracking. The weekend will be closer than its tracking.

To me I think Dance flick is a few years late, but my wife who for whatever reason likes these spoof movies wants to see it, so I think to all people who like the spoof movies they will go see it.

packpaljs wrote:To me I think Dance flick is a few years late, but my wife who for whatever reason likes these spoof movies wants to see it, so I think to all people who like the spoof movies they will go see it.

We should devise an elaborate scheme to trap all of these people in the theater when they go and see Dance Flick and gas them. Sorry if you are a casualty Packman, its just some necessary collateral damage in ridding the world of these monstrosities.

Hey Geez, Andy Samberg also did one of these movies. It was called Extreme Movie and him and another member of The Lonely Island co-wrote it.

Since there was no both T4 and NATM 2 will be huge I voted fro Star trek crashes which is another thing I think will happen but would not be surprised if it doesn't. Everything except the openers are all dropping at least 50% if both films reach their potential. A&D might not because of the older audience factor but that is all I see.

I think Dance Flick might surprise though. But don't take it in Ultimate!

Buscemi wrote:Hey Geez, Andy Samberg also did one of these movies. It was called Extreme Movie and him and another member of The Lonely Island co-wrote it.

But they didn't act in the film, and that is where their strengths lie. That and creating awesome songs. I don't know anything about the movie, never even heard of this one. I'm sure its bad but I wouldn't really know. But I guess I can chalk it up to they hadn't really found their niche yet and were just looking for a Paycheck. Every genius has their off days. I mean, even Pixar had Wall-E.

Andy Samberg is this era's Joe Piscopo. One joke comedians that people found funny at the time but when we look back...people will realize how unfunny they really were.

Even Pixar had Wall-E? One of the highest grossing movies last year, which got both critical and regular theatergoer acclaim and is #41 on IMDB's top 250 where the second American-made animated film comes in a #159....

hmm.... I think that they don't play old episodes of SNL anymore because the ratings of the new ones would drop drastically as they suck...

W wrote:Umm.... Dance Flick will be bigger than expected, though nothing near large. T4 will slightly disapoint, Night at the Museum will be slightly larger than its tracking. The weekend will be closer than its tracking.

Well, I hope your streak continues, as I have Dance Flick in the year long draft. Plus, I agree with everything W said. I also think Angels & Demons will drop more than Star Trek.

And I agree with everyone else, Geez, nothing about Andy Samberg is funny. It even hurts to look at him, something about him just makes me want to break something. I probably won't watch the MTV Awards because of him.

And I think you meant even Pixar had Cars (even though I liked it). Or even A Bug's Life. (Did Pixar make Antz?)

Pixar made A Bug's Life. It hasn't made a bad film yet, though I personally hated The Incredibles...

DreamWorks did Antz.

As for the MTV Movie Awards, the nominations are just as bad as Samberg hosting. I mean, how did High School Musical 3 and Hannah Montana: The Movie manage nominations? And I bet that these people only know about Slumdog Millionaire from The Pussycat Dolls' cover of Jai Ho.

Back when they first started these, they had some dignity (films such as Terminator 2, Boyz N The Hood and Beauty and The Beast all got nominations). Now it's basically a higher profile version of the Teen Choice Awards.

RS Tracking is up

RS 5.22
-- notfabio, May 18, 1:41
TERMINATOR: Mid 90's (5 day)
NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM: High 70's (4 day)

Future RS:
HANGOVER: High Teens
LAND OF THE LOST: High 40's
IMAGINE THAT: Mid Teens
UP: Low 50's
DRAG ME: Mid 20's

Slow decline in T4 while NATM 2 has jumped back and forth again. Tracking has been off the past two weeks so I'm ignoring it for now.

I think there is now way Terminator wont pass $100M over the 5 day. Museum will be right on its tail, wouldn't be surprised if it made more when both compared in the four day. I think Star Trek's fall will be similar to this weeks. Maybe a bit better. AD will crash. Dance Flick, honestly who cares. just my two cents.


P.S. Wall-E was great and imaginative, Cars was very childish and the worst pixar, but that's not saying a lot because i still give Cars a 6/10, Bugs Life was fun and funny, and I love Incredibles too. and yes we have to have this argument every time someone starts comparing pixar's films. Honestly though its like comparing chocolate, chocolate tastes good no matter what form it is in, dark, white, milk, raspberry, other fruit flavored, coffee flavored etc., just some tastes better than others. Personally my favorite is dark. Just not too dark, special dark.

Buscemi wrote:Andy Samberg is this era's Joe Piscopo. One joke comedians that people found funny at the time but when we look back...people will realize how unfunny they really were.

So what exactly is his one joke? He's not even a comedian (well he might be, but none of this was referring to stand up). He is an actor and songwriter. He brings a ridiculous brand of dialogue that I, and many other people enjoy. Combined with the Lonely Island, they make some really great comedic songs. You may not find them funny, but I watch something like "I'm on a Boat" and "Like a Boss" over and over again and not get tired of it. I find it hilarious. Its such a brilliant poke at every ridiculous over the top rapper and the stupid songs and videos they make. Yet somehow when they do it, it is respected, and when he parody's it, its just stupid.... Hurt your feelings a bit guys?

W wrote:Even Pixar had Wall-E? One of the highest grossing movies last year, which got both critical and regular theatergoer acclaim and is #41 on IMDB's top 250 where the second American-made animated film comes in a #159....

hmm.... I think that they don't play old episodes of SNL anymore because the ratings of the new ones would drop drastically as they suck...

I figured people would know I mainly did that to take a jab at Buscemi, but I do feel it was right there with Cars as their worst films. And I think Cars was more memorable because at least it had a couple funny parts.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:And I agree with everyone else, Geez, nothing about Andy Samberg is funny. It even hurts to look at him, something about him just makes me want to break something. I probably won't watch the

I doubt we have anywhere close to the same sense of humor Banks, but I'm pretty sure that not everyone on here hates Samberg. Tranny, NSpan, Pack? Where you guys at? I know you will side with me on this.