Wolverine and May Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Wolverine, judging by crowd reaction, should have pretty good legs too. Very good action and entertainment.

I still think the online leak is going to have a big impact on wolverine. The die hards will still see it in theaters but it still going to keep some people away. I think Wolverine is going to end up somewhere in the 80million range. I have seen the bootleg and I dont expect great word of mouth like Iron Man. However, this should still finish in the low 200's like the rest of the series.

Ghosts is going to better than made of honor because Mcaughney and Garner are much bigger stars than Dempsey and Monagan. It will most likely play out just like Fool's Gold and Failure to Launch. A mid 20's launch and a finish of about 80million.

Star Trek looks awesome and I will be there opening weekend even though I know absolutely nothing about Star Trek. That may be just me but i think it will cross over very well. If Fast and Furious can pull 71million so can this. It should have good word of mouth as early reviews are extremely positive. (side note this is kind of an unlucky weekend, this is the same wkend that saw Speed Racer in 2008, 28 Weeks Later and Georgia Rule in 2007, and Poseidon in 2006 all bombed pretty badly)

Angels and Demons doesnt have the controversial must see factor of the original but it should still do decent given the source material is very popular so the tracking seems right.

Night at the Museam 2 is the first major family film of te summer and its a sequal to a 250million suprise hit. Shrek 2 anyone? This will win the weekend. Its legs will be cut off a bit by Up and then again by Land of the Lost and then again by Imagine That. But 200million is still a given. I think this will be the one topping 100million over the 4 day.

I dont know why Terminator is recieving so much hype. I dont remember the 3rd one being a huge hit. It finished with 150million against a 200million budget. This one also is missing the govenator. as Fast and Furious showed us keeping the original cast can do wonders at the box office. I think tis one is going to underwelm and finish with less than 150 million in total box office. Its the last to show to an already crowded month...remember POTC 3

nickb first of all the govenator will have a scene in the new terminator movie and are u seriously comparing it to pirates3 cause if you are ill definately put that $140 opening on its way to over $300 million on my slate. natm 2 doesnt have a shot. also I'm nickb too and I'm just cooler than you

what just happened?

also I'm nickb too and I'm just cooler than you

Huh?

silversurfer19 wrote:Exactly, and as we've seen on numerous occasions so far this year, tracking means nothing.

I know, I can't believe tracking told us that bombs like Paul Blart: Mall Cop, Taken, He's Just Not That Into You, Fast and Furious, and Obsessed would break out.

ok?

im not comparing POTC3's total boxoffice to that of Terminator4. Im saying that it will be opening in a marketplace to crowed for it to do the kind of numbers that are being projected.

And the govenator having a cameo is hardly the same as him having a meaniingful role

brockman81 wrote:I think ol' C.S. was turning in his grave when he saw this movie...awful, just awful.

i dunno.. any movie that gets a long-dead Zombie-CS Lewis to sit up and pay attention must have something going for it

i dunno.. any movie that gets a long-dead Zombie-CS Lewis to sit up and pay attention must have something going for it

Yes, and that something would be that it was a corn filled turd.

nickb and thswrestler's real names are both Nick, and both of their last names start with B.

Of course, NSpan is also Nick, and he's cooler than BOTH of you. (snark)

nickb1016 wrote:I still think the online leak is going to have a big impact on wolverine. The die hards will still see it in theaters but it still going to keep some people away. I think Wolverine is going to end up somewhere in the 80million range. I have seen the bootleg and I dont expect great word of mouth like Iron Man. However, this should still finish in the low 200's like the rest of the series.

I think it's going to have an impact too. Not so much opening weekend, but I think the drops will be steep probably topping out at $200M

Star Trek looks awesome and I will be there opening weekend even though I know absolutely nothing about Star Trek. That may be just me but i think it will cross over very well. If Fast and Furious can pull 71million so can this. It should have good word of mouth as early reviews are extremely positive. (side note this is kind of an unlucky weekend, this is the same wkend that saw Speed Racer in 2008, 28 Weeks Later and Georgia Rule in 2007, and Poseidon in 2006 all bombed pretty badly)

Your not the only one, I think it looks great and i've never seen any Star Trek related material. Also my brother who usually doesnt like seeing movies in theater, or much less paying to see movies, wants to go see Star Trek

Night at the Museam 2 is the first major family film of te summer and its a sequal to a 250million suprise hit. Shrek 2 anyone? This will win the weekend. Its legs will be cut off a bit by Up and then again by Land of the Lost and then again by Imagine That. But 200million is still a given. I think this will be the one topping 100million over the 4 day.

I dont know why Terminator is recieving so much hype. I dont remember the 3rd one being a huge hit. It finished with 150million against a 200million budget. This one also is missing the govenator. as Fast and Furious showed us keeping the original cast can do wonders at the box office. I think tis one is going to underwelm and finish with less than 150 million in total box office. Its the last to show to an already crowded month...remember POTC 3

Yes POTC3 didnt live up to expectations, still it ended up over $300M. No way though that Salvation ends up under $200M. How high over that depends on if the film is any good or not

undeadmonkey wrote:Yes POTC3 didnt live up to expectations, still it ended up over $300M. No way though that Salvation ends up under $200M. How high over that depends on if the film is any good or not

it only made $4M less than part two domestically.. considering the fact that it had a 45% on RT and a run-time of 11 hours, i say anyone who expected $1B in receipts simply had their head up their ass


and, as far as the "Nick" debate goes, I think Shryke settled that eloquently.

i think he did too. too many nicks on here. nspan i virtual bow down to the best of the nicks

My name is Nick too!

NSpan wrote:

undeadmonkey wrote:Yes POTC3 didnt live up to expectations, still it ended up over $300M. No way though that Salvation ends up under $200M. How high over that depends on if the film is any good or not

it only made $4M less than part two domestically.. considering the fact that it had a 45% on RT and a run-time of 11 hours, i say anyone who expected $1B in receipts simply had their head up their ass


and, as far as the "Nick" debate goes, I think Shryke settled that eloquently.

I'm guessing you mean part one, because part two made $425M. Don't get me wrong though, I agree with you. Who counts a $300M film a failure

W wrote:My name is Nick too!

ME TOO!!!


...most days

I was just joking!

I've never been called Nick, yet I'm cooler than all of you. Mainly because its hitting winter down here now though....

Anyway, didn't Indy IV open on the same weekend last year? In a very crowded market of Iron Man, SATC, Prince Caspian, Speed Racer (Hah!) and then recently followed by Kung Fu Panda, Zohan and The Incredible Hulk. And it made $300m? Then I don't think the position and competition is the reason Terminator would not make any decent money.

And I see this as a rebranding of the Terminator franchise which will benefit from NOT having Arnie in it. The last one, he looked tired and old, not what you expect from a Terminator. This new one is more like it.

undeadmonkey wrote:I'm guessing you mean part one, because part two made $425M. Don't get me wrong though, I agree with you. Who counts a $300M film a failure

oops! you are correct, sir.. i misread the boxofficemojo chart

silversurfer19 wrote:I've never been called Nick, yet I'm cooler than all of you. Mainly because its hitting winter down here now though....

Anyway, didn't Indy IV open on the same weekend last year? In a very crowded market of Iron Man, SATC, Prince Caspian, Speed Racer (Hah!) and then recently followed by Kung Fu Panda, Zohan and The Incredible Hulk. And it made $300m? Then I don't think the position and competition is the reason Terminator would not make any decent money.

And I see this as a rebranding of the Terminator franchise which will benefit from NOT having Arnie in it. The last one, he looked tired and old, not what you expect from a Terminator. This new one is more like it.

Yeah, there is one problem with that analysis. Indy 4's weekday drops and weekend (especially on Saturdays) boosts showed that it played out as a family film, not an overly-hyped, fanboy-oriented, action blockbuster. If anything Terminator would be closest to batman Begins or Casino Royale. A reawakening of a long dead franchise gasping for a last breath, hoping on hope that the public will finally accept them, for this last and final time.

I never said it would match Indy IV, just that opening in the last weekend of May despite being crowded does not kill a movie. I'd be happy with Batman Begins' figures for Terminator, and I suppose with it bringing a franchise back to life and it being the first of a new trilogy, that would be a good comparison.

but it has MORE going for it because Christian Bale has already established himself as a capable lead (in terms of box office success). When he did Batman Begins, he wasn't exactly a household name. He had the pedigree for potential, but he hadn't had a big hit yet. (Keep in mind that American Psycho made a paltry $15M at the box office... even with good DVD sales and a strong cult following, it wasn't the cross-over success some of us film-nerds think of it as)..

Same goes for Casino Royale.. The studio took a risk by casting him as Bond, and wary audiences didn't know what to expect..

So, while i do agree that Terminator Salvation could be compared to both Batman Begins and Casino Royale, i think we should acknowledge that it has a huge leg-up on both by having an established star in the lead role..

And let's not forget that it looks like a REALLY good movie...

Mase's Predictions:

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 1-3
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) - $92M
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) - $18M
3. Obsessed (Sony) - $10.2M
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) - $6.5M
5. Earth (Disney) - $5.6M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5.5M
7. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5M
8. State of Play (Universal) - $4.3M
9. Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) - $3.9M
10. Fighting (Rogue) - $3.8M
11. Fast & Furious (Universal) - $3.5M
12. NEW - Battle For Terra (Lionsgate) - $3.4M

Fantastic number for Wolverine, if it holds. Would be great if it breaks the 100M. Also hoping for a bigger number from Ghosts, i've got it on a couple of the drafts.

As expected, by me anyways, Battle for Terra is looking like a ginormous dud.