Re: Super-contest of 2009// Blockbusters of 2009

by J.I. Tue Dec 09, 2008 4:49 am

1. Transformers 2
2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
3. Avatar
4. Wolverine
5. Watchmen
6. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
7. Up
8. Terminator Salvation
9. Monsters vs. Aliens
10. Star Trek

Total: $2.48 billion

What scares me is how barren November is. Some big movie will probably move in there.

by Mannix2121 Wed Dec 10, 2008 11:38 am

oh man yeah I'm gonna have to give this some thought...Is the dvd thing for sure or are we voting on that?

by **Buscemi** Wed Dec 10, 2008 11:44 am

I really don't see the Wolverine movie doing that well. We haven't seen a trailer yet, Jackman hasn't had a hit in a while, we already got a Wolverine backstory in the first film and now with the rumors of a fourth X-Men film, it renders the idea of the Wolverine and Magento spinoffs pointless. It may open well but I see it being more like The Incredible Hulk than X2.

by Mannix2121 Wed Dec 10, 2008 11:51 am

I agree. As much as I would like to see Wolverine made, I would much rather see a 4th X-Men. I think a Wolverine spin-off will still do well, but top 10 well?

by undeadmonkey Wed Dec 10, 2008 12:13 pm

but the '4th' xmen movie isn't really going to be a continuation of #3. its going to be about the kids at the xavier school.

by MisterInformative Wed Dec 10, 2008 1:02 pm

The trailer exists (I saw it bootleg online from it being screened at Comic-Con), it just hasn't been officially released yet. Given that The Day the Earth Stood Still is Fox, it might even make sense for Wolverine to be the attached trailer this weekend...

by numbersix_99 Wed Dec 10, 2008 4:21 pm

Mannix2121 wrote:I agree. As much as I would like to see Wolverine made, I would much rather see a 4th X-Men. I think a Wolverine spin-off will still do well, but top 10 well?

Yeah, Top 10 Well- I don't think it will make as much as the X Men movies, but surely most X-Men fans will go to see this. Plus, it's the first blockbuster of the season, which is almost always a help. 150 Mil is well within its grasp.

I'm still not convinced by GI Joe- Don't see it near the Top 10- at best it'll make Mummy 3 figures.

by Mannix2121 Thu Dec 11, 2008 4:31 am

undeadmonkey wrote:but the '4th' xmen movie isn't really going to be a continuation of #3. its going to be about the kids at the xavier school.

Really? How can they do that with the way they left off #3? All of the questions unanswered!

As for Wolverine, I think it would have a monster opening weekend from all of the fanboys, but after that? By no means am I saying it will have a Cloverfield-type dropoff (arent they planning a sequel to this also though?), but will it have the force to get that high? (now watch, it will end up making my top 10 and you all and skewer me for it!)

by **silversurfer19** Thu Dec 11, 2008 5:19 am

New new X-Men movie is not and X-Men 4 movie. It is not a sequel. From what I know, after the collapse of the franchise following Ratner's public haemorrhage in front of millions of comic fans, Fox have gone back to the drawing board Batman Begins style to redo the franchise. The are taking influences from the Jeff Parker's First Class to develop the movie and avoiding some of the major characters such as Wolverine and instead focussing on the likes of Angel and Iceman etc.

by **geezer9687** Thu Dec 11, 2008 8:28 am

Yeah, Top 10 Well- I don't think it will make as much as the X Men movies, but surely most X-Men fans will go to see this. Plus, it's the first blockbuster of the season, which is almost always a help. 150 Mil is well within its grasp.

I'm still not convinced by GI Joe- Don't see it near the Top 10- at best it'll make Mummy 3 figures.

And again, we are agreeing today 6. Everything you wrote is exactly how I feel about this, even the G.I. Joe part.

One thing to add though.. I definitely see next year playing more like 2007 than 2008, with a lot more films hitting the 200 million mark, rather than having just the one film that dominates everything. The total BO may not be too much higher, but I think the money a film needs to get to make the top 10 will be significantly higher than it was this year.

by **geezer9687** Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:48 am

MisterInformative wrote:The trailer exists (I saw it bootleg online from it being screened at Comic-Con), it just hasn't been officially released yet. Given that The Day the Earth Stood Still is Fox, it might even make sense for Wolverine to be the attached trailer this weekend...

I just saw an ad for The Day the Earth Stood Still that said "The only place you can see the trailer for X-Men Origins: Wolverine." So indeed this is correct.

by undeadmonkey Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:46 pm

Yea, What SS said. Who knows though, if all their spin offs do well they might eventually go back to do a fourth one.

by Donte77 Fri Dec 12, 2008 3:10 am

Hell I would be interested in doing this but since I didn't do it last year I am a bit behind the curve.

Where is everyone getting their information on what movies are being released in 2009? Are we just using BOM's release schedule?

What is the purpose of putting the films in order? Is it the order that you think will make the most to the least of the ten you pick?

That is all the questions I have for now. Thanks

by delfinasu Fri Dec 12, 2008 3:14 am

According to this, there are chances for New Moon (Twilight sequel) to be released next year Exclamation

We know the director, the actors, the story is very well known, so it won't be a problem with the screenplay Smile

If this will happen, New Moon can be a contender for $200 M +... what do you think?

by delfinasu Fri Dec 12, 2008 3:27 am

Alvin 2 can be also present in Top 10 if it will be released next Christmas... That's why, I don't know yet what to choose for the last 4 spots in my top - 2012 can be also a hit, The Princess and the Frog can deliver or not (I think most likely of Meet the Robinsons or Bolt numbers...), Wolverine - I don't know yet... the fans' reactions are very good so far... The Wolfman release is delayed for November (Halloween??)... There are still some big incertitudes for next year... Only Time... knows...

by delfinasu Fri Dec 12, 2008 3:47 am

Donte77 wrote:Hell I would be interested in doing this but since I didn't do it last year I am a bit behind the curve.

Where is everyone getting there information on what movies are being released in 2009? Are we just using BOM's release schedule? [1]

What is the purpose of putting the films in order? Is it the order that you think will make the most to the least of the ten you pick? [2]

That is all the questions I have for now. Thanks

1. BOM, imdb, other sites... just google it Exclamation

be prepared to have (unpleasant) surprises too - some movies can be delayed for 2010, in which case you'll be credited with $ 0 (you can't change the initial elections)... That was happened this year with Harry Potter 6 and Star Trek... BUT who risks can also WIN...
2. You have to post a Top 10 in ORDER (from what you'll think it will be the blockbuster of the year - No.1 - to No. 10 according to domestic Box Office) and a total of these...
The order matters! In case of a tie (same chosen movies, different order), the winner will be the one according to the order of films chosen in the final standings (1st guessed place - 10 points, 2nd guessed place - 9 points ..., 10th place guessed - 1 point).
If we'll have two moguls with exactly the same 10 movies in the exact same order, the winner will be the one with the specified total of 10 movies closer to reality. (e.g. real final total will be $ 2.5 billion, mogul 1 with $ 2.6 billion will be above mogul 2, with a specified total of $ 2.3 billion). So, the total for your top 10 matters only in case of a perfect tie (same movies, same order...) - I hope that we won't have such a case...

The lock (sign-up) date was voted 1st of February, 2009. So you have plenty of time... to bone up on this contest...

One more thing: Good Luck!

by **Buscemi** Fri Dec 12, 2008 6:39 am

delfinasu wrote:According to this, there are chances for New Moon (Twilight sequel) to be released next year We know the director, the actors, the story is very well known, so it won't be a problem with the screenplay If this will happen, New Moon can be a contender for $200 M +... what do you think?

I don't see it coming out in 2009. If they want to deliver, they can't rush it.

by MisterInformative Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:37 am

Ah, but to a still fledgling company like Summit, which is more important? Artistic perfection and accuracy to the book, or the chance to get a product out there that will make quick coin no matter what because of the fanbase?

by Donte77 Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:49 am

delfinasu wrote:
1. BOM, imdb, other sites... just google it be prepared to have (unpleasant) surprises too - some movies can be delayed for 2010, in which case you'll be credited with $ 0 (you can't change the initial elections)... That was happened this year with Harry Potter 6 and Star Trek... BUT who risks can also WIN...
2. You have to post a Top 10 in ORDER (from what you'll think it will be the blockbuster of the year - No.1 - to No. 10 according to domestic Box Office) and a total of these...
The order matters! In case of a tie (same chosen movies, different order), the winner will be the one according to the order of films chosen in the final standings (1st guessed place - 10 points, 2nd guessed place - 9 points ..., 10th place guessed - 1 point).
If we'll have two moguls with exactly the same 10 movies in the exact same order, the winner will be the one with the specified total of 10 movies closer to reality. (e.g. real final total will be $ 2.5 billion, mogul 1 with $ 2.6 billion will be above mogul 2, with a specified total of $ 2.3 billion). So, the total for your top 10 matters only in case of a perfect tie (same movies, same order...) - I hope that we won't have such a case...

The lock (sign-up) date was voted 1st of February, 2009. So you have plenty of time... to bone up on this contest...

One more thing: Good Luck!

Cool thanks Delfi. Sounds fun. I think I understand now. I will start thinking about it since I have a month or two. This will take some serious research and figuring.

One additional question. Do the movies have to be released between Feb 09 and December 10? Not that I think there will be any good picks but are January 09 movies eligible?

by delfinasu Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:56 am

1. all the moguls have to choose a top 10 blockbusters of 2009, no more, no less; release dates (in US) between: 01.01.2009 - 12.31.2009;

by delfinasu Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:10 am

November 20th, 2009 will be the release date for Sherlock Holmes and Planet 51... and... AND... New Moon (source)

J.I. on Tue Dec 09, 2008 1:49 am
What scares me is how barren November is. Some big movie will probably move in there.

Your anticipation scared me Smile

I knew that we can have 1 or 2 movies in that month, but 3! Don't forget The Wolf Man on November 6th!
Now we have no more than 5 movies - Watchmen, Avatar, Princess and the Frog, New Moon and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel - which can be delayed in 2010 Smile

but, again, who doesn't risks, can also not WIN...

by Alyson Thu Dec 18, 2008 9:58 pm

WOW - New Moon is coming already? Argh I wish I had waited to post my 10.... I am really pumped for that and for Sherlock Holmes - thats going to be a busy weekend for me.

by IPKI$$ Thu Dec 18, 2008 10:59 pm

Okay, after much much research and deliberation:

1. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
2. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
3. Star Trek
4. Terminator: Salvation
5. Up!
6. Watchmen
7. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
8. Night at the Museum 2
9. Angels & Demons
10. A Christmas Carol

Wow...that took longer than I thought.
$2.6billion

by undeadmonkey Fri Dec 19, 2008 3:54 am

This was hard

I know were not predicting $ amount, but i though it would be fun.

1. Transformers 2 - $325-$350. with the good reception (i know some of you would beg to differ) the sequel can probably do a little better than original

2. Harry Potter - $280-$310. I still havent read any of the books, but Order of the Phoenix felt like a filler episode. so hopefully stuff will start happening in this one making it more exciting.

3. Avatar - $260-$280. I dont think this will be the next Titanic, but it looks big and epic. something thats been missing in the winter scene for a few years already. I Am Legend doesnt count. neither do twilight, golden compass or eragon.

4. UP - $240-$260. when a rat chef and a robot that falls in love (not to mention a silent movie) can make $200+. This should be easy. A story about an old man and a boy going on an adventure is much more accessible and easier to market.

5. Night at the Smithsonian - $210-$240. THe first one made over $250, but this one has more competition in its summer spot. which i think is going to knock it down a few tens of millions

6. Wolverine - $200-$230. Even though X3 wasnt well received, I think most people will realize that this doesnt have anything to do with X3.

7. Terminator Salvation - $200-$230. This years reboot/sequel. I think it'll end up more Batman Begins than Punisher or Hulk. The trailer looks decent. the premise is something that we havent seen a lot of. Also the company seems to have faith as they have started with the sequel already.

8. Alvin and the Skequel - $200-$220. I doubt it can do more than its predecessor, but than again no one thought the first one would make more than $50M.

9. Watchmen - $200-$220. Hype would say a lot more, but we all know how reliable hype can be. I would rather go with facts and there are only 8 R-rated movies that have made more than $200M. 2 over $250M. Some of you would say, well if there's an R-rated movie that can make more it's this one. But I think that the audience is limited past the fanboy fanbase.

10. Star Trek - $200. if it gets this much it'll be great. the highest grossing ST is only $109M. It'll be hard to cross the line from being a 'geek thing' to mainstream summer blockbuster, but the trailer looks like its headed in the right direction.

Total:$2.50B

welcome any comments...

by JackO Fri Dec 19, 2008 4:11 am

Here is my list.

1. Avatar
2. Transformers 2
3. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
4. Up
5. Monsters and Aliens
6. X-Men Origins: Wolverine
7. Night At The Museum 2
8. Watchmen
9. New Moon
10. Alvin and the Chipmunks 2

This is the year 3D took over the cinema.

Total: 2.890 B

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