Tyler Perry/Oscar Weekend Tracking

Yeah, just like Hannah Montana, it was only coming out in 3D (however this time it includes IMAX 3D), and since My Bloody Valentine was only in 1033 3D theaters, I see progress.

Do you see the $25m+ OW's that have been touted though? I don't know if its possible with that theatre count. That like a 21,000 PTA. Having said that Hannah Montana managed a 45,000 PTA, so if there's enough screaming pre-teen girls, I guess anything's possible....

It's possible. The Jonas Brothers have as much of a following as Hannah Montana. Also The Jonas Brothers were in the (first) Hannah Montana movie, which managed a $45,000 PTA on opening weekend.

geezer9687 wrote:For those saying that Monsters vs Aliens has no real competition, have you forgotten the Hannah Montana Movie? It comes out two weeks later. I also think that Fast and Furious will win its weekend, but will drop steep.

I didn't know Monsters vs. Aliens' prime demographic was screaming pre-teen girls.

Part of the demographic for MvA is most certainly pre teen screaming girls. And I am dead sure it will at least have an impact on its performance that weekend. MvA crosses multiple demographics, so while it will benefit from that factor, it will also suffer from it too. That is why it will also suffer a little from Fast And The Furious, though not to the extent of Hannah Montana. Having said that, I'm sure it will have fantastic holds, as all animations do.

Unless The Hannah Montana Movie is taking 3D theaters away (which it is not), then the impact of it's arrival will only affect it's niche fanbase.

Ah, yes. I forgot about the 3D factor. In that aspect its got free reign.

No numbers from Mase yet?

No Academy Award for entrepreneur Tyler Perry, but MADEA GOES TO JAIL should easily win the Oscar weekend box office battle!

by Steve Mason

Filmmaker Tyler Perry, with Oprah Winfrey as a role model, has consistently outsmarted Hollywood moguls since his debut feature Diary of a Mad Black Woman. That Gospel-infused “fat-suit-in-drag” comedy was made for a mere $5.5M and scored an opening weekend of $21.9M, ultimately generating $50.6M in domestic sales.

At only 39, Perry is building an empire. He officially christened Tyler Perry Studios last October in Atlanta with a star-studded event. The multi-million dollar project is a sprawling 30-acre working production facility in southwestern Atlanta, and the opening night party featured appearances by legendary African American actors like Sidney Poitier, Cicely Tyson, Ruby Dee, Lou Gossett, Jr. and Will Smith.

The 81-year-old Poitier, who won a hard-fought battle for his place in Hollywood with brilliant performances in films like Blackboard Jungle, The Defiant Ones, Lilies of the Field and Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner, saw the importance of Perry’s achievement. “I’ve spent 56 years in this business, and tonight is the reward,” said the Oscar winner. “To see the people who have followed me and to see the success of the extent of this man is a real gift.”

Not only does he produce, write, direct and star in his own movies, he also helps to finance them. His second movie, Madea’s Family Reunion, was his biggest with a terrific $30M 3-day and over $63M domestic during its theatrical engagements. Like Diary of a Mad Black Woman, it featured Perry’s outrageous Madea character. But even his non-“fat-suit-in-drag” pictures have performed well.

ALL-TIME TYLER PERRY OPENINGS
1. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion - $30M opening - $63.25M cume
2. Diary of a Mad Black Woman - $21.9M opening - $50.6M cume
3. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married - $21.3M opening - $55.2M cume
4. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns - $20.1M opening - $42M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s The Family That Preys - $17.3M opening - $37.1M cume
6. Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls - $11.2M opening - $31.3M cume

Who is Perry’s audience? “It’s about 50% Christian churchgoing. It depends on what part of the country I’m in,” the filmmaker tells the Hollywood Reporter. “If I’m in the Bible Belt it’s 90% churchgoing. If I’m up north in Newark it may be 30%, so it depends on where you are.” He fine-tuned his characters doing live stage shows around the country. “I used to adjust the shows to where I am. If I was in the Bible Belt I made it more Christian, God-themed. If I was up north I could get away with saying ‘ass’ a little more. I would say 75%-80% women, 10%-20% men and about 5% children. What I’ve learned is you treat the women right and they bring everybody else.”

Now in addition to his two TBS television series’ Meet the Browns and House of Payne, he unleashes his seventh movie for Lionsgate this weekend, marking the return of his most popular character in Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail. Industry tracking is remarkably unreliable when it comes to Perry’s movies and Hollywood execs like to look down their noses at him, but my prediction is for a very solid $23M opening, which would mark the second-best 3-day start of his career, and more than enough to win the weekend.

Holdover horror pic Friday the 13th (Warner Bros) will take a mighty tumble, down at least 60%, but it should still manage about $16.25M or so for its second weekend for Platinum Dunes. That will put Jason in second-place for Oscar weekend and give the slasher reboot a new cume of about $63M by Monday.

It will be a battle for third-place between rom-com He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) and Taken (Fox). Both movies will be in the $10.5M range with the Drew Barrymore-produced Not That Into You likely just shy of $72M domestic, meanwhile the action import from France starring Liam Neeson will probably top $93M, and the Luc Besson written and produced action flick should surpass $100M by the end of next week.

Henry Selick’s Coraline (Focus), a truly spectacular 3-D experience from the genius behind Tim Burton’s Nightmare Before Christmas, will likely reach a very solid $9.6M for 3-days, blowing past $50M in domestic sales.

Sony has a low budget non-starter on its hands as Fired Up, a misguided comedy about two high school football jocks who join an all-girls’ cheer team, looks like a disaster in pre-opening tracking, and it will almost certainly be limited to about $5M or so.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR FEBRUARY 20-22
1. NEW - Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) - $23M
2. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $16.25M
3. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $10.53M
4. Taken (Fox) - $10.44M
5. Coraline (Focus) - $9.6M
6. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $8.2M
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $6.1M
8. The International (Sony) - $5.8M
9. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $5M
10. NEW - Fired Up (Sony) - $4.9M
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $4M
12. Push (Summit) - $3.56M

You do realize that this is not another Miley Cyrus Concert movie right? This is a Hannah Montana Movie based on the hugely popular show. Girls from age 4-13 fuckin love this shit. I am not saying it is completely going to end MvA, which absolutely crosses genre lines (even I want to see it), but it will have an impact. And, as Surfer said, Fast and Furious will have an impact as well. At least on its opening weekend. I just can't see it racking up the top 5 points.

And I think Mase is underestimating Madea quite a bit.

I think he's underestimating Madea more than just a little bit. His movies aren't my thing and I still think the trailer looks pretty funny. I'd say it will be his biggest opening.

I'm calling mid to high 30s this weekend for Madea.

For just over 2,000 theaters? That's pretty brazen... although 5 PTA points is almost a certainty, depending on how Gomorrah and Under the Sea do in their second weeks.

The theaters near me are selling out like freaking crazy. One has twelve showings sold out, and the other, which doesn't have many sell-outs, has sold two out.

Well, you do happen to be in Georgia.

And another film outdoes tracking . . .

http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/02/20/estimates-6/

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES

1. NEW - Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) - $14M, $6,890 PTA, $14M cume
2. Taken (Fox) - $3.25M, $1,050 PTA, $87M cume
3. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $3.2M, $1,031 PTA, $50.37M cume
4. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $3M, $984 PTA, $64.54M cume
5. Coraline (Focus) - $2.8M, $1,299 PTA, $45.13M cume
6. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $2.62M, $1,047 PTA, $23.26M cume
7. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) - $2.5M, $1,381 PTA, $2.5M cume
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $1.54M, $545 PTA, $115.92M cume
9. The International (Sony) - $1.42M, $604 PTA, $14M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.2M, $535 PTA, $91.16M cume
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $1.13M, $425 PTA, $26.8M cume
12. Push (Summit) - $952,000, $506 PTA, $22.5M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES

1. NEW - Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) - $39.2M, 2. $19,291 PTA, $39.2M cume
2. Coraline (Focus) - $11.2M, $5,197 PTA, $53.53M cume
3. Taken (Fox) - $10.7M, $3,449 PTA, $94.45M cume
4. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $9.5M, $3,115 PTA, $71M cume
5. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $9.2M, $2,963 PTA, $56.37M cume
6. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $8.5M, $3,391 PTA, $29.13M cume
7. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) - $6.8M, $3,757 PTA, $6.8M cume
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $5.4M, $1,908 PTA, $119.78M cume
9. The International (Sony) - $4.56M, $1,932 PTA, $17.13M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.5M, $2,005 PTA, $94.46M cume
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $3.72M, $1,403 PTA, $29.4M cume
12. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $3.09M, $1,522 PTA, $133.88M cume

Coraline reaches its high watermark in its 3rd week? Just unbelievable...

Can I say bomb for Friday 13th's second week??? 9.2m is shocking. Madea is doing well. Looks like his biggest opener yet.

You had to expect this from Friday the 13th though. Not that hard, but you had to expect the drop would be huge. Come on, it came out on Friday the 13th

Yes, I did, but I thought it would at least hit $15m, possibly $18m. However, $9m is a big drop.

Biggest since Hellboy 2 last year. And we all know the circumstances that caused that.

Dear God. If that is the case, Madea is going to make $500m.....

If it had the same multiplier as TDK, it would make about 140 million.

Shrykespeare wrote:Coraline reaches its high watermark in its 3rd week? Just unbelievable...

Yeah, its a shame that Jonas Brothers comes out next week, Coraline could have hit $100 million. Its making Taken look like its having Friday the 13th style drops. And even though its getting great reviews, I thought it would have bad word of mouth among families due to the fact that it is supposed to be really scary for a PG movie.

Speaking of Friday the 13th, I am not the least bit suprised. I was expecting a 70+% drop for the weekend, but 85+% drop on Friday now just seems so expected now. It won't even be at $60 million by the end of the weekend, even Cloverfield did that.

silversurfer19 wrote:Madea is doing well. Looks like his biggest opener yet.

By far, surfer, by far. Its already half-way there.

Also, Madea Goes to Jail looks like one of the most obvious examples so far of the recession helping the box office due to the fact that it is a franchise and is performing way better than any of the other six movies.

I just wonder if its going to continue to affect it in May. Could we see more 100 million + openings from the likes of Wolverine, Terminator Salvation, or even Star Trek and Angels and Demons?