March 20-22 Tracking (and Happy Birthday, Keyser!!!)

Yeah, I know it's a week early, but I thought it interesting to mention the preliminary theater counts.

Knowing - 3000+ theaters. This surprises me, because apart from Twilight, Summit Entertainment has never had a film go THAT wide, I don't think. But then, that film's bottom line may have had a direct influence on Knowing getting the biggest bow.

I Love You Man - 2500 theaters. Hmm. It's going to be tough to win the weekend if this number holds. Can an R-rated comedy beat a PG-13-rated thriller in 500 or fewer theaters? Doubtful.

Duplicity - 2400+ theaters. I've seen a lot of advertising for this film, but I doubt it will be enough to translater to more than a $15 million opening weekend, and that's being optimistic.

The Great Buck Howard - 50 theaters. Well, DAMN. I imagine it's been a while since a film being released in between 30-100 theaters won the PTA for that weekend, which means this title suddently becomes less attractive. Which is a shame, because I would pay almost anything to see John Malkovich and Tom Hanks in the same film. Definitely will see on DVD, but I now think my $7 is better spent elsewhere.

Sin Nombre - 6 theaters. Okay, I've actually seen a trailer for this in theaters, which is unusual for a limited-release film. This one has an excellent chance at 5 PTA points (depending on how Sunshine Cleaning, expanding to 50 theaters, does). And, truth be told, 3-5 PTA for $3 is an excellent bargain, even though the film's User Rating (currently 5.4) is unlikely to climb much higher.

Skills Like This - no word. Could be a non-starter, or disappear into the ether like Phoebe in Wonderland did.


And, while I'm at it, a very happy birthday to Keyser Soze, our resident Steelers fan. All the best from Cardinals country!

More theatres doesn't necessary mean bigger success. So I'm going to say that Knowing only does $10 million on opening weekend (which is what Push opened to last month, which appealed to the same audience).

I Love You, Man and Duplicity will open higher but both figures should be close. I'll say $16 million for I Love You, Man and $15 million for Duplicity (Duplicity should hold better since it's probably a better movie and its audience will probably like it better).

The Great Buck Howard would probably open and close similar to last year's What Just Happened (open well, expand mildly and crash at its widest).

Sin Nombre should get a better IMDb rating once people actually see it (it happens a lot with Sundance films, for example Thirteen was a 2.8 before opening but rose to a 7.5 after people saw it). As for the box office, it should be have a better PTA than Howard but I don't know how much.

Skills Like This feels, sounds and looks like another late entry into the whole "let's be quirkier and crazier than Napoleon Dynamite" sweepstakes. And the distributor is known for releasing films with very small print runs and no advertising. I'd guess that it opens in one or two theatres and averages less than $1,500 per theatre.

And happy birthday Keyzer!

I think Knowing will be another huge surprise for this year, like Paul Blart and Taken. I can see most people having it at 12/35 but I'll think it MIGHT upset I Love You, Man for the top spot this weekend, but more likely, it'll just have better legs than expected.

ILYM - 25/80
Knowing - 17/65
Duplicity - 13/40

But these are really just off the top of my head.

I've been seeing that most predictions are for Duplicity to win the weekend (and back in February when the box office was amazing, people were saying it would hit $100 million.)

Knowing $22 million
Duplicity $20 million
I Love You, Man $15 million

I Love You, Man is going to win this weekend easily. Knowing might pull in the PG-13 family crowd well enough but the teen boys & the adults will flock to I Love You, Man which Watcmen's gigantic 2nd weekend drop has opened the spot for I Love You, Man to open well.

1. I Love You, Man - 26
2. Knowing - 16.7
3. Duplicity - 15

If Forgetting Sarah Marshall opened under $18 million, I say no way.

Yeah, but Forgetting Sarah Marshall turned out to be very well liked, as did Role Models. Both grew to bigger audiences via word of mouth and DVD. And How I Met Your Mother is pretty huge right now...which is a plus for Jason Segel. Then again, the trailer never had the laughs that the FSM or RM trailers did...and every movie that looks to be huge so far this year hasn't really (Watchmen, Jonas Bros.), while lesser hyped titles really took off (Paul Blart, Taken). Then again, ILYM may be the underhyped title, going against Julia Roberts. Too hard to say. I really have no idea how this one will play out...

Is it just me or are these 3 movies getting super-heavily promoted on almost all TV channels and just about everywhere else. I've seen TV spots for all three countless times in the last month or so. Duplicity is on the cover of EW this week, ILYM seems to getting pushed down our throats on ESPN and during comedy shows (30 Rock, Big Bang Theory, The Office, etc) and Duplicity seems to be chasing the older crowd (shown heavily on CBS, during Desperate Housewives, HGTV, etc), while Knowing is kind of in between those two (I saw THREE spots during one episode of Heroes).

I think all of them will do extremely well this weekend, it's something for everyone. Then next week, the big kiddie elephant of the month, MvA.

I think the studios realize that the door is wide open. There is nothing big out right now so they are hoping for big opening weekends for all 3. They know that the "Monster" is coming next the next weekend, but this weekend is wide open so they are really trying to grab as much as they can early.

RS 3/20 Update
-- notfabio, Mar 15, 17:52
DUPLICITY: Mid 20's

I LOVE YOU MAN: Low 20's

KNOWING: Mid Teens (however, other tracking services have this tracking considerbly ahead of I LOVE YOU MAN and DUPLICITY)

Future:
FAST AND FURIOUS: Low 40's (this is tracking better than anything else YTD though with other services)

MONSTERS VS ALIENS: Low 50's

12 Rounds: Mid Single Digits

OBSERVE AND REPORT: Mid Teens

HANNAH MONTANA: Almost High 20's

---------------

I knew Buck Howard was sheep in wolf's clothing! and Yeeha! For Sunshine Cleaning. I think it'll gross 40M well all is said and done.

JackO wrote:KNOWING: Mid Teens (however, other tracking services have this tracking considerbly ahead of I LOVE YOU MAN and DUPLICITY)

Future:
FAST AND FURIOUS: Low 40's (this is tracking better than anything else YTD though with other services)

Since I can't trust ReelSource, I'll go with what the "other tracking services" are saying. Knowing tracking considerably higher than I Love You, Man and Duplicity is great. Looks like a breakout. As for Fast and Furious, if they have it at better numbers than Watchmen, that's a big opening right there (since Watchmen was tracking at $75 million at MTC.)

I can't believe that people actually want another to see Fast and the Furious movie. These films already sucked to begin with! And it's sad to think about all of the good movies that deserve sequels but will never get them while we are force fed another sequel to this tired franchise.

I'm still going to guess a $25 million opening and a $55 million finish.

say what u want about fast and furious...they are entertaining fun. It has got strong advertising with superbowl ads and the opeing action scene being shown as the trailer (That worked great for the Dark Knight) boxoffice.com is already predicting a 50million opening. The return of the original cast will also be a strong draw. Even if this underperforms it will still crack 100million by the end of its run.

Back on topic...I dont think I Love You Man seems funny enough to really break out and should debut around 20million.

I don't think the return of the main cast means anything. Paul Walker hasn't had a hit since Eight Below and his films usually go straight-to-video. Vin Diesel hasn't had a hit in God knows how long. Rodriguez and Brewster are non-factors since they rarely are the draw.

I'm sorry but nothing about this film is revelant in 2009. Maybe it did five years ago but it doesn't now. Unless Vin Diesel is this decade's John Travolta where he doesn't have a hit for a number of years but comes back with the most unlikely thing possible (even though in that case Bruce Willis helped him).

Fast and Furious looks like a fun film to me and I'm sure me and most of my friends will be there opening weekend. Nobody is being force fed anything here, if you dont want to see it then dont.

This weekend is very interesting. I think potentially any of the three releases can win the weekend. And they all offer something different.

Knowing - PG-13 family fare. Starring lame duck action star Nic Cage.

I Love you, Man - R-rated but not raunchy comedy so it brings all of the teen boys who are done with Watchmen & can even cut into the 25-35 sect that might have opted for Duplicity.

Duplicity - Will hold the 35-50 solidly with Julia & Clive Owen and an action comedy by the Michael Clayton director.

Predictions:

1. I Love You, Man - 21.5
2. Duplicity - 18.3
3. Knowing - 17.5

Monsters vs. Aliens should have a 55-65 mil. opening the first real kids movie of the year (if you exclude Hotel for Dogs - a nice 70 m grosser). Looks to be somewhere in between Wall-E & Kung Fu Panda numbers.

Fast & Furious - Reunites the old cast, it feels slightly rejuvenated and the trailer is pretty solid all around. This will be a good stop gap for the action, big blockbuster fans until Wolverine hits theaters May 1. 40-45 million opening likely with the name recognition of the franchise and Vin Diesel's starring return. On it's way to 125-135 domestically.

I think people are overestimating MvA. Yes, it will be the highest grossing pre-May film, but don't forget, its run will be almost entirely in March and April. These are very dead times at the box office. It is also going to cost $15 per ticket, which will prevent at least some people from seeing it, and more people from seeing it twice. I think it will be big, like 165-170 million big. Bigger than last year's Horton. But in no way do I think it can come close to the 200 million some people are predicting. And thinking it will make 220 like a few are throwing out there is insane. There's my stance on Monsters vs. Aliens.

Thanks for shitting in our wheaties....jerk.

I think that after the failure of the Jonas Brothers movie, they will not make the tickets $15 per person for all shows. I see at most a $2-3 upcharge like with other 3-D films.

Any film about people driving cars will have an audience. That audience doesn't include me. Watching a fast and furious film is the same as watching a nascar race. I would rather watch two dogs fuck in a kiddie pool filled with vomit. I think the film can make 80-100 million, I just don't know why...

Death Race had cars. Death Race had cool cars. Actually, Death Race had fucking awesome cars (see the Dreadnaught). But that film only made $35 million despite the cars, the futuristic elements and a name cast.

And Grindhouse had Death Proof. Stuntman Mike's car is one of the greatest movie cars ever. Stuntman Mike chases a replica of the car from Vanishing Point (another one of the great movie cars). In short, the film was a love letter to movie cars. Final tally: $26 million.

So, not all films about cars are hits.

Buscemi I wasnt implying that Paul Walker, Vin Diesal, Michelle Rodriguez, and Jordana Brewster are box office draws in their own right. However the original Fast in the Furious was a suprise word of mouth hit and was generally well recieved. However the following sequels went with new casts will the exception of Paul Walker in the second. Those 2 sequels recieved a mixed reaction. The reuniting of the orignal cast, draws or not, helps build confidence that audiences will be getting more of what made the original movie so much fun, and less of what made the sequels subpar. As a fan of the series I know that I definatley felt this way. Every fan of the series I have talked to is excited for this new installment.

geezer9687 wrote:I think people are overestimating MvA. Yes, it will be the highest grossing pre-May film, but don't forget, its run will be almost entirely in March and April. These are very dead times at the box office. It is also going to cost $15 per ticket, which will prevent at least some people from seeing it, and more people from seeing it twice. I think it will be big, like 165-170 million big. Bigger than last year's Horton. But in no way do I think it can come close to the 200 million some people are predicting. And thinking it will make 220 like a few are throwing out there is insane. There's my stance on Monsters vs. Aliens.

Not really. Only the concert 3D movies have that set price - most of the time, 3D is $2-$3 extra. IMAX is the same way, but with another $2-$3 on top of that.

For example, at my theater, adult tickets at night run $8.50. Digital 3D is $11, and I believe IMAX 3D is $13-$15. So it's going to differ at each theater, depending on the market there.

Well I am just going by the information I've been told on this very website, which told me that they would be $15.

And that was very well said nick. I think a lot of the fans of the original are going to feel that way. I still think its going to bring in 85-95 million.

A couple of points to add:

MVA: I believe you have the choice to watch MvA in either a 2D or 3D format. I think the people that are taking their kids to see a cartoon will choose the 2D format while the people that want to see a 3D movie will go there. This way, the upcharge can only help.

Knowing: I think it is underestimated. This movie is more National Treasure than Next or Bangkok. In no way do I think it'll pull in those numbers, but I do think there are similarities and it'll attract some of the same audience. It has been advertised out the wazoo, which can only help. It will have a healthy opening and hold well for at least a couple of weeks.

Fast amd Furious: I have no freaking clue, but if Tokyo Drift can bring in $62.5 M, I don't see how this doesn't go over $90 M. It even had a $24 M OW.