Tyler Perry/Oscar Weekend Tracking

RS 2/20

MADEA: Between 21-24
FIRED UP: Between 6-9

Future:
Last House On The Left: Between 10-12

Race to Witch Mountain: Low 40's (Oddly enough they remark how dubious they are of their own number, but interest kids 6-12 is very strong and teen/adult females is actually much better than males)

Watchmen: Mid 40's

Street Fighter: Between 6-9
Jonas: High 20's

MTC

MADEA: 32
FIRED UP: 5

*All numbers from notfabio

Dwayne Johnson must have an effect with teenage girls. He's good looking, strong and seems to be a likeable person. Plus, he's like Brendan Fraser and has a good reputation.

Very small number for Watchmen, and I see Madea making a lot closer to what MTC says. 32 sounds about right. Only problem, can it's imdb score stay above 4? I doubt it.

Mid-40s sounds about right for Watchmen.

I think the Jonas Brothers will do more than mid-20s.

Why only mid forties? 300 opened to $70 million despite competiton, no names and a boring trailer that explained little about the plot.

300's trailer, still, to this day, had me more excited to see the movie than any other trailer I have ever seen. It was completely badass. When a movie is not plot-driven, its trailer doesn't need to be either. It had me salivating for the release.

I'm in total agreement Geezer. And so was everyone else who gave a March release a $70 million opening!

I agree with Geezer...300 looked amazing in it's trailer...I think Watchmen looks good too, but I'm not feeling the buzz like I was when 300 was coming out. I'm rooting for it though.

Buscemi, I agree with everyone else. The trailer for 300 was epic and had everyone talking, movie-fan or not. I think that Gerard Butler's kicking the messenger alone counted for most of that $70 million OW.

With Watchmen, the trailers are mostly boring and for the most part, make no sense. You've got a masked man who sounds like a Christian Bale-wannabe, a guy in an owl costume, blue flames, a shitload of slo-motion fire, and a title that tells you almost nothing about the movie.

I'm not bashing Watchmen, I personally can't wait to see it. And I think it'll be the biggest movie until May (maybe Monsters Vs. Aliens), but I can't see it crossing over.

I agree, the buzz is not the same, and that's why I don't see a 70 million opening. I think it will be around 55, and it will have great legs. Very little competition, and it will finish somewhere between 180 and 200.

I half-agree with both sides...I wasn't too impressed by the 300 trailer and only saw it (and hated it) because all of my friends said it was the best movie they had ever seen. With Watchmen, despite Snyder's being called a visionary, I'm willing totake a chance because the trailer is so damn awesome. I think, next to The Taking of Pelham 123, this has one of the best theatrical trailers I've seen for any 2009 release so far. I think it will do well, and I believe it has the potential to do so much better than just well, but only time will tell.

I think Watchmen will open pretty big. RS tracking has not been very good in 2009. I think it'll open big, but have bad legs because of A) The bait and switch marketing and B) The ending. I have it hovering around 175-185 range for a domestic total after opening near 75M. I also have Race to Witch Mountain winning Watchmen's second weekend. It's tracking very strongly and looks like it will be another Gameplan. I think the movie with the best bang for it's buck is Monsters and Aliens, though. It has all the way until X-Men Origins: Wolverine until there is another film that could take away from it's demographic.

Yeah i agree geez the 300 trailer was in the top 10 trailers ive ever seen it was amazing and i was there opening weekend because of it. Watchmen will do more than Mid-40's i really dont buy tracking numbers most of the time i think that its a complete crapshoot. btw i cant fucking wait for Watchmen i might go to the midnight screening im so excited for it.

me too, i hope i'll get tickets for midnight opening!

I did the midnight opening in Imax for '300' and I won't take much persuading to do the same this year with 'The Watchmen.' I went on to see '300' another three times. Jury is still out on 'The Watchmen,' and I think what they decide to do with the ending will be what determines it for me.

MTC is so much more reliable than RS, that just on tracking alone, Medea looks like a $35 million opener and Fired Up looks like $3 million.

I'm guessing I've been waiting for Watchmen to hit the big screen longer than just about anyone else on the list so you'll have to excuse me if I try to nudge myself past you in line for the midnight showing. If they do even a half decent job of bringing Moore's vision to the screen, I'll be satisfied. Anything more and I'll be ecstatic. Just can't seem to get rid of that little feeling in the back of my head that they're going to mess it up royally.

These next two weeks are going to drag on forever.

i think the watchmen is a much better bet for the 50-60million range. 300 had a great trailer and its plot over 300 vs the persian army was a stronger hook than the watchmen is advertising. To be honest I have no clue what The Watchmen is about and honestly the trailers have not really done anything to make me care.

Monsters Vs Aliens should be huge. I wouldnt be suprised if it opened above 60mill. And will its 3d inflated grosses and no major family film until the end of may it should have strong legs.

I am also pretty interested in how Fast and Furious is tracking. I still cannot figure out why this is being released in april. With all the stars returning I think tis could have been a big hit over the summer. I wonder if this still has blockbuster potential

Keyser Soze wrote:I'm guessing I've been waiting for Watchmen to hit the big screen longer than just about anyone else on the list so you'll have to excuse me if I try to nudge myself past you in line for the midnight showing.

I'll probably agree with you. I didn't get my hands on Watchmen until probably about 1990/91 (I was about 8 or 9 - I have always been into comics!), but I'm sure you will have probably got the original issues. I am so hyped about this now though.

Keyser Soze wrote: If they do even a half decent job of bringing Moore's vision to the screen, I'll be satisfied. Anything more and I'll be ecstatic. Just can't seem to get rid of that little feeling in the back of my head that they're going to mess it up royally.

I feel exactly the same. I've been totally impressed by the trailers, I think it looks fantastic. However, I do think that with the narrative focusing solely on the actual story only, missing out the journals and pirate story, it will temper my enthusiasm for the movie a little, as I will feel like I have been short changed a little bit. Not that I don't think the story itself will be brilliantly realised, with the characters (bar Adrian) seeming just how I always imagined them to be. If they can get that part right, I will be very happy.

Keyser Soze wrote:These next two weeks are going to drag on forever.

Tell me about it...

For those saying that Monsters vs Aliens has no real competition, have you forgotten the Hannah Montana Movie? It comes out two weeks later. I also think that Fast and Furious will win its weekend, but will drop steep.

I think the advertising on Watchmen is hoping to capitalize on 3 things:
1) Its a super hero movie. In March no less. Most super hero films come out in the Summer, so they feel like stressing the hero aspect will bring in the bucks
2) The built in fanbase. Anyone who already knows Watchmen doesn't need any additional information on its plot.
3) Awesome special effects. The trailers have all been visually stunning. This has a great appeal, and I think is the strongest aspect the film has going for it when bringing in casual fans.

I'm sticking with 55, 190

To be honest guys, I don't know what all the fuss is about 300's trailer being so much more informative than Watchmen. For a start, there is very little apart from a few battle cries and some stunning visuals on display in the 300 trailer. Secondly, 300's narrative is hardly that complex anyway, so they had little to explain. Compare that to Watchmen, which has so many things going on, it's hard to fill that all in the trailer. Even so, I think it does a decent job of doing so. We've been presented with four trailers which have each peeled off a little more of the story: You know that a superhero has been killed and that Rorschach is trying to uncover the mystery which could lead to armageddon. Combining this most basic of introductions with visuals which arguably are even more impressive than 300's, as well as the fact that Watchmen is more well known than Miller's GN, and I see no reason why the casual audience would be less likely to go see the movie. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but I know A LOT of people want to see this movie.

I probably agree with Geez's predictions though, although it could just tip $200m

nickb1016 wrote:I am also pretty interested in how Fast and Furious is tracking. I still cannot figure out why this is being released in april. With all the stars returning I think tis could have been a big hit over the summer. I wonder if this still has blockbuster potential

Well, let's see... Paul Blart Mall Cop, Taken, Gran Torino, Slumdog Millionaire, He's Just Not That Into You, and Friday the 13th have all proven this year that a blockbuster can come out before May, so if Fast and Furious isn't big it won't be the release date's fault.

ha ha, i like your logic

Can't be bothered setting up a new thread, but interestingly enough The Jonas Brothers movie is only opening in 1,175 theatres, while Street Fighter is down for only 1000 locations so far too. Don't expect any big numbers next weekend....

Poor Chun Li never had a chance, but dont heed no mind to jonas brothers theater numbers, didnt Hannah Montana only open in 600 theaters.