Feb 6th Tracking

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:Weird thing about Coraline: Since MBV is still doing relatively well in 3D, some theaters (well, at least mine) wanted to run Coraline in the morning saving the last couple of showtimes for MBV. Focus said that Coraline must run by itself all day or it doesn't run at all. Needless to say, we're not getting Coraline in 3D. Seems like a very stupid business decision.

Why not play Coraline all day in 3-D? The reviews have been great and it has the appeal to play at night as well as day. I think it can hold on its own.

Buscemi wrote:

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:Weird thing about Coraline: Since MBV is still doing relatively well in 3D, some theaters (well, at least mine) wanted to run Coraline in the morning saving the last couple of showtimes for MBV. Focus said that Coraline must run by itself all day or it doesn't run at all. Needless to say, we're not getting Coraline in 3D. Seems like a very stupid business decision.

Why not play Coraline all day in 3-D? The reviews have been great and it has the appeal to play at night as well as day. I think it can hold on its own.

I think because the night showings of MBV 3D are still selling out on the weekends. And Coraline has a smaller audience at night, going off what I've seen tonight.

Speaking of tonight, I'm about to make a bold prediction here. I'm calling a high 30s/low 40s weekend for He's Just Not That Into You. That's pretty bold I guess since the highest estimate I've seen is $24.

Steve Mason posted his early friday estimates and revised 3 day totals - and I'm happy to see Coraline, which looks fantastic (and has been reviewed extremely well) is doing better than expected. I look forward to seeing it sometime. Pink Panter 2 tanks, and doesn't show the strenght many thought it may have had. Taken is showing some good traction as well, which is great for those of us with it on our slates - I thought it may have pulled a Underworld 3 and only get points for its first weekend.

I'm also happy that New in Town is doing as bad as it is, maybe it'll make Renee Zellweeger open her eyes! and I mean literally! She squinted her way through Appaloosa to the point where I wondered if they were pointing a flashlight right into her face during the entire filming.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $10.5M, $3,307 PTA, $10.5M cume
2. Taken (Fox) - $6M, $1,884 PTA, $39.06M cume
3. NEW – Coraline (Focus) - $4.2M, $1,828 PTA, $4.2M cume
4. NEW – Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $4.1M, $1,264 PTA, $4.1M cume
5. NEW - Push (Summit) - $3.05M, $1,319 PTA, $3.05M cume
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $2.5M, $789 PTA, $88.5M cume
7. The Uninvited (Paramount) - $2M, $853 PTA, $13.97M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.65M, $957 PTA, $71.67M cume
9. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $1.4M, $518 PTA, $114.43M cume
10. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5M
11. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) - $1.3M, $637 PTA, $37.05M cume
12. New in Town (Lionsgate) - $1.15M, $592 PTA, $9.77M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $28.87M, $9,094 PTA, $28.87M cume
2. Taken (Fox) - $18.3M, $5,747 PTA, $51.36M cume
3. NEW – Coraline (Focus) - $15.12M, $6,580 PTA, $15.12M cume
4. NEW – Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $13.94M, $4,298 PTA, $13.94M cume
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $8.5M, $2,682 PTA, $94.5M cume
6. NEW - Push (Summit) - $8.38M, $3,626 PTA, $8.38M cume
7. The Uninvited (Paramount) - $5.9M, $2,517 PTA, $17.87M cume
8. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5.5M, $2,012 PTA, $54.91M cume
9. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $5.28M, $3,063 PTA, $75.3M cume
10. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $4.9M, $1,811 PTA, $117.93M cume
11. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) - $4.09M, $2,005 PTA, $39.85M cume
12. New in Town (Lionsgate) - $3.73M, $1,926 PTA, $12.36M cume

Taken set to do $18 million? In its second week? Not bad for a film that spent a year on the shelf.

Hopefully we get to see similar numbers if MGM finally decides to release The Poughkeepsie Tapes. I believe that it can have do well if it gets a decent-sized campaign.

And though Pink Panther 2 looks to be a flop (I was actually surprised by this especially since worse-looking films seem to do well, such as Beverly Hills Chihuahua), I think it can actually have good legs. Just look at Hotel For Dogs and how well it's done despite opening against Paul Blart and the trailer consisting solely of lame and gross-out jokes while basing itself off of the climax. It's not dead yet.

Meanwhile, I was correct about Push the whole time. Suckers!

I was actually going to write last night that Pink Panther's best bet for success is a model like Hotel for Dogs, and it may be able to do it, and the first film had only small drops weekend to weekend. Although, I personally think the Pink Panther looks as bad as a movie can get. Also, I wanted to say how happy I am that Push isn't doing well - I wonder if somebody picked it at its inflated price.

J-Man wrote:I was actually going to write last night that Pink Panther's best bet for success is a model like Hotel for Dogs, and it may be able to do it, and the first film had only small drops weekend to weekend. Although, I personally think the Pink Panther looks as bad as a movie can get. Also, I wanted to say how happy I am that Push isn't doing well - I wonder if somebody picked it at its inflated price.

Ult. FY R1: 3 players took Push
Ult. FY R2: 3 players
Ult. HY R1: 4 players
Ult. HY R2: 2 players
BO FY R1: 5 players
BO FY R2: 2 players
BO HY R1: 8 players
BO HY R2: 2 players

CMA time: I hope you all realize that when I priced Push as high as I did, I did so because it honestly LOOKED like the kind of movie that would have more appeal than the other movies that came out this weekend. It looked a lot like Jumper, and so I thought it would do as well. I have no way of knowing, one to three months beforehand, just how big a release platform a film is going to have, nor just how bad some of the early reviews are going to be. I didn't throw a $20 price tag onto this film as a red herring, honestly. I am now sorry for those people who are now stuck with it, who look like they aren't going to get a single Top 5 point out of it. But, in my own defense, THAT'S WHY YOU HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO EARLY TRACKING.

Hey Shryke, don't worry over the price tag. There many situations like this at the old place That Shall Not Be Named. I mean Gran Torino was $10!

Oh! I didn't mean that as a pot shot to your pricing. Lord knows I'd never be able to do it! Of course, I think everyone on here would price slightly different in certain cases because we all have different biases, but I mean that it's inflated compared to what you're going to get for it (hindsight is 20/20). Sorry if it came off that way.

I agree that with the new league you really have to pay closer attention to weekly tracking, and thats just a part of the new game here on the new forum - we don't have access to the tools the old site had (with all the possible projections, probably coming from the studio and months out tracking), and it made TONS of mistakes (god, I didn't take that shitty October dog movie, and it killed most of my slates). Its just a new challenge for a new game.

From Deadline Hollywood Daily

SATURDAY PM: Here are early North American box office numbers for Friday, Saturday and the weekend (analysis later):
1. He's Just Not That Into You (New Line/Warner Bros) OPENER
$10.4M Friday, $11M Saturday, [3,175 theaters] Weekend $28.5M
2. Taken (Fox) $6.2M Fri, $9M Sat, [3,184] Wkd $20M
3. Coraline (Focus Features) OPENER $4.3M Fri, $6.5M Sat, [2,298] Wkd $15.5M
4. Pink Panther (Columbia/Sony) OPENER $4M Fri, $6M Sat, [3,243] Wkd $14M
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Columbia/Sony) $2.7M Fri, $5M Sat, (wkd $10.5M)
6. Push (Summit) OPENER $3.5M Fri, $4.2M Sat [2,313] Wkd $10M

If Taken pulls in 20M in its second week, it will really be a huge surprise hit, and should work against the idea that piracy kills theater traffic as I've heard that Taken is one of the easiest films to pirate. Its been out since early 2008 in some European countries.

Shryke you should not feel bad at all. do you remember movies like speed Racer, Semi-Pro, The Chronicles of Narnia and for fuck's sake Lions for Lambs!!! There have to be overpriced films. They separate the game. People take them, don't pay attention to tracking, and they get sunk. Its the name of the game. You are doing us all a great service by putting out the price lists. Not every film needs to be spot on. Don't feel bad. It works the other way too, just look at Taken, which is looking like a Superbad style bargain. Glad I have it on my slates.

Hypothetically speaking, what would have made 'Push' worth taking at $20? $60-80 million in receipts, 12 Top 5, 6-8 pta and around 7.0 in imdb? My acceptance of a lower box office take comes from this generally being a softer time of year for recipts. I suppose the real value would be in how much it would have drawn in receipts if you were using it as part of a 'Watchmen' free slate and strategy: Counter-balance a likely $200 million take by picking two or three cheaper options. I'm honestly not sure that combination exists in the January-March season (I'm excluding Paul Blart and Taken since, as cheap picks, they are likely on slates that have 'The Watchmen' too). I'd be telling lies if I said I was sad to hear that it had been picked by some of my competitors in the Super leagues. Potentially a slate killer. C'est la guerre, Napoleon!

A_Roode wrote: (I'm excluding Paul Blart and Taken since, as cheap picks, they are likely on slates that have 'The Watchmen' too). I'd be telling lies if I said I was sad to hear that it had been picked by some of my competitors in the Super leagues. Potentially a slate killer. C'est la guerre, Napoleon!

Glad I have all three, Paul Blart, Taken and Watchmen. Made the last minute switch before Taken came out in both formats and I am really confident in my slates.

I completely agree with you that I am not the slightest bit sad that some people chose Push. I'm a competitive player, and its things like that that separate the contendors.

Dang, Taken only had a 17.8% drop. That's the lowest drop for a Super Bowl opener this decade. With a holiday next weekend, $100 million is definately within reach. The only thing to prevent it is The International. Also He's Just Not That Into You, with Valentines Day and a 4-day weekend next weekend, could possibly make $100 million, but Confessions of a Shopaholic should stop that. Coraline had a good opening.