SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 7/31 - Funny People, Aliens in the Attic, et al.

Wow, a 62% drop for Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince in its second week, despite the sixth chapter being one of the best-reviewed of the bunch, and having gotten out to the best start of the entire franchise. I can only believe that the rather anti-climactic ending (not much action, only a shocking twist, and that’s all), is what’s to blame for the dwindling number of return-viewers. At this point, $300 million now seems unlikely, and the waiting period officially begins for Part One of The Deathly Hallows, which opens next winter. But oh, to be beaten by talking guinea pigs? The horror, the horror…

By this time next week, 7/12 of 2009 will be in the books. I must admit to being a trifle disappointed as a whole with this year’s crop of movies… there have been good ones, to be sure, but not quite as many great ones as last year. I could blame the economy, the writer’s strike, global warming, or Donte, but it still wouldn’t make me feel any better. Oh well, time to suck it up and hope that the second half of the year is better than the first. (Hint: I’m not holding my breath.)

In what is sure to be the very last blockbuster comedy of the summer, we have Funny People, which is not only the third directorial project by comedic Hollywood wunderkind Judd Apatow (though he’s had, his fingers in just about every R-rated comedy to come out in the last few years). Following up The 40-Year-Old Virgin and Knocked Up, Apatow has teamed up arguably the biggest movie comedian in the last ten years with arguably the biggest movie comedian in the next ten.

Adam Sandler, who has no less than ELEVEN blockbusters on his resume (the most recent being last winter’s Disney outing Bedtime Stories) pairs up with Seth Rogen, who, though he really hasn’t made his bones yet as a leading actor (Knocked Up did very well, but Observe and Report proved too dark for mainstream audiences), has done very well in supporting roles (40-Year-Old Virgin, Superbad) as well as animated characters (Horton Hears a Who!, Kung Fu Panda, Monsters vs. Aliens). This director, combined with these two powerhouses, should prove a very potent combination indeed.

My one hope, going in, is that the movie does NOT play out like the trailer, which appears to give the plot of 2/3 of the movie in its 3-minute length. Sandler plays George Simmons, a very successful stand-up comedian who has also done well as an actor (yeah, a real stretch, huh?), who is told that he is dying of cancer. Not long after, he befriends another up-and-coming comic named Ira (Rogen), who lives with two roommates: a self-absorbed TV actor (Jason Schwartzmann) and a writer (Jonah Hill).

I’m not sure exactly what the sequence of events are, but at some point, George and Ira pay a visit to George’s old flame (Leslie Mann, aka Mrs. Apatow), who still has feeling for George but is currently married to a philandering Aussie hunk (Eric Bana, hot off his Star Trek success) who is cheating on her. And as night follows day, George learns that his cancer is in remission, and he uses his second chance to live life to the fullest… or something like that, I’m guessing here.

This film IS rated R, of course, and I am told that you can expect more penis jokes than an hour with a drunken Norm MacDonald. However, I also have it on good authority that there is some simply fantastic acting involved, and that the entire movie-going experience from seeing Funny People is actually quite fulfilling… though it could have stood to be more heavily edited, given that its purported running time is a whopping 2:25. Gadzooks.

The final counts are not in yet, but Box Office Mojo actually has this film opening in FEWER theaters than Aliens in the Attic (which I’ll talk about in a sec), and one can’t help but wonder if the film’s R rating and copious length – which means fewer overall showings – will slightly detract from the film’s overall numbers. Given the triumvirate of Apatow, Sandler and Rogen, all of whom have sizable fan bases, one would expect that $100 million in total revenues were a given, but I honestly think that much more than that would be expecting too much.

I’ll go ahead and predict $125 million overall (roughly half of what The Hangover will end up pulling in). It may take all of August to get there, but I think it will. The only films that can be dubbed “comedies” coming out in that month in wide release are Julie and Julia (which is definitely aimed more at women) and Shorts (which is aimed a kids and teens). In all I predict ten Top 5 points, five PTA, and a User Rating of 7.3. It’ll cost you $22 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues, and that seems like a pretty solid investment if you haven’t already blown your wad on previous July blockbusters. Pickings are pretty slim from here on out, I hope you realize.

And while ex-SNL alum Sandler, who has actually made a career for himself in cinema, is playing in one theater, there will be not one, but TWO of Adam’s former cohorts playing in another theater down the hall. However, to say that Kevin Nealon and Tim Meadows haven’t… quite… achieved the same level of success as Mr. Happy Madison is like saying that that bottle rocket that lifted off from your backyard never quite achieved orbit.

Aliens in the Attic, the latest kiddie action movie from Fox, tells the story of the Pearson family (led by Nealon), who head to their vacation home in Michigan, only to discover that they are not the only ones living there. When twin sons Art and Lee (Henri and Regan Young) encounter a friendly alien living in the attic, they are surprised, but are even more so when it turns out that the diminutive ET has friends, who are not quite as amicable.

From there, the smackdown begins… the Pearsons must use a variety of household objects to fend off the invading aliens, who are themselves armed with quite a few high-tech gadgets of their own. With the fate of the world at stake, the battle commences with maximum comedic potential. High School Musical's Ashley Tisdale, Robert Hoffman and Doris Roberts co-star.

I don’t know much about the collective works of director John Schultz (Like Mike, The Honeymooners), but I figure Aliens has exactly one week to make its bones, because August is rife with films aimed at younger audiences, coming one after another: G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, Bandslam and Shorts are all due out in the three succeeding weeks, which means you can expect monumental drops each week.

It is only $7 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues, and I probably wouldn’t even bother recommending it (based on quality alone), but the truth is, it has been marketed quite well. I have seen plenty of advertising, and given that it is being released in over 3,000 theaters, it could very well have enough mustard to crack the Top 5. But it probably won’t stay there for more than one week, which means only one or two Top 5 at the most, probably no PTA, and a User Rating not higher than 6.5. Box Office would seem to be a better option, but only just.

(Note: There is another film being given a wide release on July 31, a tense horror/drama called The Collector, but it was added to the roster too late to include it in the leagues. You’re probably better off, as it looks like it would have been better served as a straight-to-DVD venture.)

And now, a little bit about the four limited-release films of the week:

Adam ($6 Ult., $3 BO) – Scheduled for release on Wednesday, July 29th in four theaters, Adam tells the story of a young man named, duh, Adam (Hugh Dancy) with Asperger’s Syndrome (a mild form of autism), who falls in with his upstairs neighbor (Rose Byrne). Of course, given his condition, their introduction and courtship isn’t exactly normal…

This films won the Alfred P. Sloane prize at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year, has a very respectable IMDb rating (7.2 with nearly 300 votes), and boasts an even more respectable RottenTomatoes score of “88% Fresh”. But all critics agree the film is quirky yet lovable, not particularly cutting-edge, but well-acted and well-written.

If you’re going to spend $6 on this title in the hopes of picking up some much-needed PTA, you could sure do a lot worse than Adam. I’m not sure that the Wednesday opening will help its weekend numbers, but one can only hope.

The Cove ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This is a documentary that shows a group of activists, led by renowned dolphin trainer Ric O’Barry, infiltrate a cove near Taijii, Japan, where supposedly 2,500 dolphins are massacred every year. It won the U.S. Audience Award at Sundance, has terrific IMDb and RT scores (8.8/181 and 83% Fresh, respectively) and, depending on its release platform, could be for July what The Hurt Locker was for June.

That’s a bold statement, I know, but I’ve just got a good feeling in my gut about this one. It’s not exactly a happy, sunshine-y topic, to be sure, but you and I both know that when a documentary this critically-acclaimed, with the potential to galvanize thousands of people, hits theaters, it may do so for several weeks in a row.

Thirst ($6 Ult, $2 BO) – Holy Hannah, what a terrific weekend for indie films. This horror/drama, helmed by Korean director Park Chan-wook, won the coveted Jury Prize at the 2009 Cannes Film Festival, and currently boasts an IMDb score of 7.9 and an RT score of 86% Fresh. It tells the story of a priest (Song Kang-ho) who is in love with his friend’s wife, who is slowly turning into a vampire because of a failed medical experiment. Yowch.

Thirst is scheduled for release in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco on this weekend, and it, too, could be a surprise source for PTA. But then again, Asian horror movies, no matter how acclaimed, often don’t find a big enough audience in the U.S., so the $6 price tag for this film represents a much riskier prospect than for The Cove.

Lorna’s Silence ($5 Ult, $2 BO) - Finally, we have this title, a French film from brothers Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne, who both directed and wrote the screenplay. This film WON the award for Best Screenplay at Cannes, and was nominated for the Golden Palm Award. What does THAT tell you?

In this film, Lorna (Arta Dobroshi) is a young Albanian woman living in Belgium, who becomes embroiled in a shady plot by a gangster named Fabio, who has orchestrated a fake marriage between her and a man named Claudy… actually, I’ll stop right there. The plot looks incredibly complex, and I only have so much space, so you’ll have to read it yourself. Suffice it to say, it ain’t a happy story, as various reviews have called it “subtle and emotionally bleak” (and they mean that as a compliment, believe me).

Its current UR and RT score are 7.3 (over 1400 votes) and 82%, and given the history of small French films in this game, this may be another title that’s hard to ignore. It is scheduled for release only in New York and Los Angeles, so that means it’s another title that COULD win the PTA crown.

You know what? Forget what I said about The Cove winning. This PTA battle is one of the hardest ones to pick, like, ever. Damn Chien for shoving this gig back in my lap! (Just kidding, mon ami, you know I love you, but I am soooooo out of my depth here…and have fun in Korea, OK?) Four well-reviewed films, some of them award winners. How does one choose? Or does one just write them all off and pick a film coming out on a less crowded weekend? Your choice, fellow Fantaversians. Good luck. (You’ll need it…)


My predictions for the weekend of July 31-August 2, 2009:

1. Funny People - $31 million
2. G-Force - $18 million
3. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - $14 million
4. The Ugly Truth - $12 million
5. Aliens in the Attic - $10 million



Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we enter the fourth and final month of the summer season, with what may very well be the final blockbuster for a good long while: G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, where the “real American heroes” from our childhood take to the big screen to battle the evil agents of Cobra, courtesy of Mummy director Stephen Sommers. We also have Julie & Julia, Nora Ephron’s chronicle of the life of world-renowned chef Julia Child (Meryl Streep) and how it impacts a frustrated secretary (Amy Adams), who attempts to duplicate her success, one recipe at a time. We also have A Perfect Getaway, starring Milla Jovovich and Steve Zahn as a vacationing couple who realize – too late – that their new friends may be considerably more dangerous than they let on. There will also be three more limited release films to talk about (Paper Heart, Cold Souls and I Sell the Dead).

Later!

I decided (duh) to put links to the trailers for the week's films in my column, starting this week. Do you think that's a good idea, or does it make it too cluttered?

And here is the trailer for The Collector, which looks like nothing more than a clone of The Last House On The Left.

Shrykespeare wrote:I decided (duh) to put links to the trailers for the week's films in my column, starting this week. Do you think that's a good idea, or does it make it too cluttered?

I think it's fine. Helps one get caught up on the week's releases.

Putting the trailers on there looks good to me!

Adding the trailers is a great idea.

I can't wait for Funny People, heard nothing but great things about. I'm pulling for Lorna's Silence to pull off the PTA crown, only because I picked it over the other limiteds on all my slates.

Super League HY Update:


In Box Office, after Tuesday's numbers, Dantic has a $56M lead on Scripps, which is shrinking daily due to his having Harry Potter and G-Force. Can he come all the way back in the final five days?

In Ultimate, mutard is still looking good for the win.

In other news, it looks like The Hurt Locker is expanding nationwide as I figured it would. Meanwhile, 500 Days Of Summer will be expanding to 300 theatres.

The trailers are a good idea Shryke. As always great column!

Wednesday HY Update:

No change in the Ultimate.

In Box Office, Scripps knocked another $9M off of Dantic's lead, and now trails by $47.1M with four days to go.

Hey, Shryke, did you get my August slates?

Yes, Banks. I got them. Sorry if I didn't sent you a confirmation.

Buscemi wrote:In other news, it looks like The Hurt Locker is expanding nationwide as I figured it would. Meanwhile, 500 Days Of Summer will be expanding to 300 theatres.

For such a small city, I'm surprised that we're getting both (500) and The Hurt Locker opening here this weekend.

A friend of mine saw a sneak of Funny people on Tuesday. He said the performances were all excellent, but he thought at 2 1/2 hours that the movie was too long.

I loved his description. "It seemed like they weren't sure which direction to take the movie is, so they took all of them."

Thursday Updates:

The difference between Dantic (who is now just over $1B) and Scripps has dwindled to just under $40M. If HP6 and GF can combine for that much this weekend, Scripps is the winner of the 1st Half HY BO tourney.

I saw The Hurt Locker today. To date, it is the best film about Iraq. Jeremy Renner deserves an Academy Award nomination for his performance.