Proposal/Year One Weekend Tracking

Sorry, Jacko, I know you usually do this but it seems that you're MIA...

RS 6/19
-- notfabio, Jun 14, 22:11
It's no secret that RS has had a really off run lately so take these as you will..

Note: RS has the following exactly 10 million apart and this is a significant drop from where they had YEAR ONE previously. PROPOSAL sneak previews were very well attended for MTC with several sellouts.

PROPOSAL: Between 26-29
YEAR ONE: Between 16-19

FUTURE:

PUBLIC ENEMIES: Low 40's (5 day)
TRANSFORMERS: Mid 170's (5 day)
MY SISTERS KEEPER: Between 9-11
ICE AGE: Low 90's (5 day)
BRUNO: Low 40's

I'm actually surprised by Public Enemies tracking

I can't see Bruno doing $40 million opening weekend. I'd say that $25 million is the ceiling.

I think 40 isnt absurd for Bruno. Baron Cohen is well known now and People loved Borat [for the most part] so i think 35-40 is attainable.

I wouldn't call him "Well Known". I save this for at least 2nd or third tier guys where the top tiered guys are "If you don't know this person you may not be American" types like Arnold, Tom Cruise, etc. Second and third tier are like Vin Diesel, Shia, etc.

He's still in "That guy from that one movie" territory, 'that one movie' being Borat. It's fine, though, because they're not going for mainstream.

My prediction is that Bruno will easily pass $100 M. The trailer is getting decent, though not great, buzz and it should be a fine selection to your slate.

I wouldn't say Sacha Baron Cohen is well-known, but Borat is. I think if they keep marketing it as a companion piece to Borat instead of as a gay oriented movie, they'll do very well.

The Proposal looked to me like one of the least likely summer films to ever be number 1, but this looks to be a solid hit. One that I think could open higher than He's Just Not that Into You. The tracking for Year One seems pretty spot on as well.

As far as Bruno goes I think it will get its 40million opening but it is going to drop hard. This basically plays as Borat 2, so I think it will play like a sequel. The trailers dont look anywhere near as funny as Borat, but enough people liked Borat to give this a shot. If people dont like it then look for it drop hard.

Anyone heard of any early numbers for friday?

Haven't seen.

Damn, are hot babes the avatars of choice now?

yes sir, nikki just barely posted a headline but thats it

"BIG 'PROPOSAL' #1 With $12.5M Friday/$33M Wkd; 'Hangover' #2; 'Year One' #3 With $8M Friday/$21M Wkd"

Super! I was scared that it would take 3rd for a minute there. You can never tell with female oriented films, you don't see the buzz as well.

Very nice for pretty much everything. I'm very interested in knowing how Up did this weekend as well.

Interesting Weekend. The Hangover continues to hold really well. Great opening for The Proposal and a soild opening for Year One good to see.

Buscemi wrote:I can't see Bruno doing $40 million opening weekend. I'd say that $25 million is the ceiling.

But the hangover got more than that in its 3rd weekend.

With a month until its release, I've already seen articles talking about groups trashing Bruno (gay and family oriented groups both trashed it). Its a surefire hit because 1) These groups know of the film a month before its release and 2) Their trashing will only fuel the fire.

J.I. wrote:

Buscemi wrote:I can't see Bruno doing $40 million opening weekend. I'd say that $25 million is the ceiling.

But the hangover got more than that in its 3rd weekend.

I'm saying $25 million because Borat took in $26 million opening weekend and he was a much more popular character than Bruno. Also, the trailers don't seem to be getting the reaction that Borat's trailers got.

A movie like Bruno needs stunts like the faux MTV / Eminem incident, backlash from GLAAD (talking about how it's the worst of stereotypes of a gay man). Last word people are talking about Bruno. And it's releasing on a great weekend. 2 weeks after The Public Enemies and 3 weeks following Transformers so that allows Bruno to open with some air. There's no buzz about I Love You Beth Cooper which has shuffled around the '09 calendar all year.

Bruno's opening weekend 35 on the low & 50 is its ceiling.

Yeah but Buscemi that was only from 837 theaters. It made $28 million in its second weekend.

EDIT: And as for the weekend itself, absolutely awesome for The Hangover. Less than a 20% drop. I thought it would fall harder this weekend than last weekend because taht's normally what happens when a movie opens big and holds strong, but aslo because the Proposal would take away women and Year One would take away teenagers. Up did excellent too. Great for The Proposal and good for Year One.

I'm happy for Proposal. I wonder how big a drop it will suffer next week. In fact, I wonder if ANY movie will break $20 million next week other than Transformers.

I think The Hangover will make $20 million next weekend. Its holding amazingly and Knocked Up wasn't hurt much by Transformers.

BOM's Friday estimates

1 THE PROPOSAL $12,400,000
2 YEAR ONE 8,500,000
3 THE HANGOVER $8,465,000
4 UP $6,100,000
5 THE TAKING OF PELHAM 1 2 3 $3,200,000

I think another factor with The Hangover holding so well besides great WOM is people are going to see it again. I know there was a lot of people on the internet and people who where in the theater that i saw in it that wanted to go see it again. I went with a large group friends when i saw it and 3 of them saw it again last night.

My sister wants to see it again. As for myself, I think the only film to come out this year that's worth seeing twice is Star Trek.

I thought about seeing The Hangover (or Star Trek) again today and settled on Year One. I wish I would have went with my gut and stayed away from it...

How was Year One anyway?