The "'Star Trek' will break $300M' Club

I have to say no as well. Don't think it will do 300. Think the only films that can pull that one off is Transformers and Harry Potter.

I'll join on this...This one will probably have the best legs of any May movie this year and will probably outgross them all too...It's definitely got a lot of potential and trying to not let my personal desire to see the movie conflict, I just don't see this movie making less than $250 mil...I think it's got the best chance of the May monsters to break 3. But that's just me...and Banks & Swedgedemus.

...So. Halfway there, and only ten days in... Ten and a quarter, fine, if you count the Thursday night screenings. Where are all the naysayers now? (Yeah, packpaljs, geez, Barky, Boussh, Roodey, Jay-Man, sepulchralprimate, Spannaus, Infernal, Jay Eye, Herald, Dubya, Jackie Oh, Kaiser, Optimus, I'm talkin' t' YOU... Consider yourselves on the receiving end of a big, wet, septuagenerian Carl Fredricksen-sized Pbbbbbt! ...On the other claw,Banks and IPKI$$, thanks for having this rat's back.)

However... $300M's still not in the bag, not by a long shot, not when Trek's hyper-impressive 12% take from IMAX theaters will be tossed unceremoniously out the window, all stop, mid-warp by the wholly unnecessary imposition of Terminator Salvation this coming Friday... And not when the Summer season's barely out of the gate, and we still have potential blockbusters Bruno, Drag Me to Hell, G-Force, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Much Bile, Harry Potter 6, Ice Age 3, Land of the Lost, The Proposal, Public Enemies, The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3, Transformers 2: Transform Harder, Up, and Year One -- not to mention, McTerminated -- still ahead.

There's been a lot of talk -- including by yours truly, starting last Fall -- about Star Trek being "this year's Iron Man" -- Shryke among others will remember that I always characterized this film as being likely to fall somewhere in that wide gulf between Iron Man and Superman Returns. I'm pleased to see it's avoided the latter's fate, but at this point, neither do I see it capable of achieving -- QUITE -- the former's level of stratospheric success. Quite.

I think the better comparison, in terms of its continuing relevance, staying power and as an indicator of eventual domestic box-office totals, is Men in Black. Although the 1997 Summer blockbuster opened a full two months later than Trek, it, too, was a family-friendly, highly rated, must-see "event" film, one that managed to break out of the typical genre box and become a broadly attractive mainstream experience. Like Trek, it managed a low-40% drop in its second weekend against stiff competition -- namely Contact, which actually bowed in the No. 2 slot -- and, much as J.J. Abrams's career-defining (not to mention, potential-fulfilling and reputation-making) franchise renovation will, MiB played ALL SUMMER LONG.

Men in Black, it's instructive to note, earned a scant 20.5% of its eventual, ultimate receipts, totalling $248.4M, on its opening weekend... By the end of Weekend #2, the film had taken in 56% of its total figure. If Star Trek follows a similar trajectory -- and I think it will -- that means that Trek COULD earn anywhere from $262M to $367M in the next several months. However, as far as the game is concerned, Trek will only benefit from 12 weekends, although it may well play in theaters for up to six additional weeks. This film, Transformers 2, and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince will be THE three films EVERYONE who goes to the theater sees this Summer... Just as I predicted.

Splitting the difference, then, and accounting for "lost" receipts beyond the event horizon of the game, I'm going to predict that Trek will bring in $301.5M... Fulfilling my initial prediction, but only just. Look for Trek to drop anywhere from 30% to 40% each week, for its fourth-through-tenth weekends, is my bet... And don't forget, it's going to get a bump from the Memorial Day weekend.

Let the contradictions, rejections and rebuttals commence!



Mission f@$#in' accomplished, bitch.

Trek will be lucky to get 150M. 200M would be mindblowing.

Consider my mind blown. Folks are saying it could hit 200M by the end of Memorial Day Weekend. Totals range up to 275. However, we will see if it can live to see past NATM 2 and T4. If it can survive this battle I will bow down to J.J. Abrams and Paramount.

I liked it enough to throw it on any BO slates that I could at the time, which was only a couple... So I have your back that much...

I still think it will have a ceiling of about 275. That is damned impressive though. Considering afterall that it is, ahem, Star Trek. You were a lot closer than most of us Nico. Hey, it had to happen eventually, right?





Right?

[Ahem]

[grin]

Actually, Nico, Night At The Museum is the one that's playing in IMAX, not Terminator. And I've heard that some theaters will play both, NaTM during the day and Star Trek in the evening and night. This includes the one I work at.

That's gotta help the club, right?

undeadmonkey wrote:If you lower it to $200M, I'm in. there is just too much competition for $300M.

I still think there is too much competition for $300M, but i can definitely see it topping $250M.

Two weekends in, Star Trek stands at $152 million...

This weekend will tell the tale. Will it fizzle out, or will it continue with a sub-50% drop? We shall soon see.

Saw it last night in Imax with a packed theatre. I think my initial assessment of it not crossing the $300 million mark is as credible as it was, but obviously I wildly under-estimated how well it would actually do. Great film and I'm delighted to be wrong! (8/10)

geezer9687 wrote:This weekend will tell the tale. Will it fizzle out, or will it continue with a sub-50% drop? We shall soon see.

Down only 30% on the 4-day, it looks like Star Trek is here to stay. 18 days in and it stands at $194 million and the highest grossing movie of the year.