4/24 Tracking

MTC 4/24
-- notfabio, Apr 20, 14:32
OBSESSED: 20
Soloist: 10
EARTH: 9 (5 day)
FIGHTING: 6

RS 4/24
-- notfabio, Apr 19, 23:24
OBSESSED: Very High Teens
EARTH: Between 9-11 (5 day)
SOLOIST: Very High Single Digits
FIGHTING; Between 6-8

Future:
Ghosts: Almost mid 20's
Wolverine Mid 80's
Trek; Mid 50's
Angels and Demons: Almost mid 60's
Next Day Air: Almost teen millions

Also goes for mid 380's total for Transformers 2 but that's entirely editor opinion.

I think they're overestimating Angels and Demons and Next Day Air. I can't see the former opening to more than $40 million (since there hasn't been much of a campaign for it) and I can't see the latter opening to more than $5 million (the film looks like a ripoff of Guy Ritchie films and those films usually don't open well).

I think Next Day Air might be a surprise. Although there are not too many on this site, some people just have a bad taste in there mouth when they hear Star Trek so I see alot of people see Next Day Air over Star Trek. Plus I think it actually looks like a decent movie. I would also say that it falls under a African American cinema movie, and that audience only gets a few movies a year and they usually make a little bank.

But the imdb score is going to be awful...that's the draw back...

What number are you thinking?

packpaljs wrote: I would also say that it falls under a African American cinema movie, and that audience only gets a few movies a year and they usually make a little bank.

Fer shizzle. But, if a movie is bad, the BO won't do well anyways. This one has a marketing campaign that has just started up and I just saw the first trailer yesterday, so my expectations rose moderately. I wonder if they're running the trailer on BET? It doesn't look horrible, so it should do decent, though I wouldn't put a number on it just yet.

Summit is promoting the hell out of Next Day Air, it's on like half of the movies out in theaters now. I haven't seen many TV spots, but I think the casting of Mike Epps will bring in some people. Maybe low teens for its OW?

I'm thinking Obsessed will hit at least low to mid 20s, but the promotion has seemed to trail off over recent weeks. I'm surprised Fighting is tracking so poorly, since I see that goddamn movie advertised everywhere. I want to shoot Terrence Howard in the face everytime he's like "Wanna make some money?" Sounds like a fucking rapist.

What number are you thinking?

I would say the imdb would be in the high 2's to low 3's. But it might be a half way decent box office pick.

I'm unsure about Next Day Air. The trailer intrigued me. Personally i think its either going to completley tank or do decently.

I actually think Next Day Air could do pretty well. I'm definitely going to see it, I think it looks entertaining and funny as hell. Plus, the cast is pretty impressive IMO, and it doesn't look like just another 'black' movie. Summit is promoting the hell out of it and they helped Knowing make way more money than it rightfully would've made. I think it'll be a decent pick in either league to be honest. the Imdb will probably look more like Friday than Roscoe Jenkins...I'm thinking a solid 6 or low 7 would be about right with maybe $40mil total and a handful of top5. Not bad in a soon to be crowded megaplex.

No way in hell it gets over a 6 imdb...whens the last time an African American movie similar to this scored a high imdb score? Because Friday was way back in the 90's...look at Ice Cube's track record on movies recently...mostly in the 3's when he's the star.

I have not seen a single bit of anything advertising this film. Not a poster, not a trailer, not a tv spot. I have no idea what the plot is or how well it will do. I also don't plan on seeking it out.

That's because he makes shitty movies now. The people who vote terribly on Imdb for all of those crappy looking katt williams/martin lawrence family comedies are the exact people who will probably like a movie like this, trust me. This, like I said, is not just another black movie...I honestly think the appeal is there for this to reach a good sized market, but we'll see in a few weeks either way.

I just can't see it having a high imdb...but we shall see soon enough I suppose. If the imdb gets into the 4's I'll call that a success for the movie.

I've been somewhat of a naysayer for Obsessed, but Obsessed is officially going to do well.

So, now that I've actually paid attention to the tv spots for Obsessed... It looks fucking terrible. I mean like god damn awful. That said, it will still make money for some unknown reason.

My fiance and I saw the preview for Obsessed last night and we both laughed every time Beyonce was on the preview and was trying to act hard core and serious...I mean how corny can you get? If this movie didn't have Beyonce in it I might go see it.

I got fooled with Swimfan, I won't be fooled by a movie like this again.

i agree the trailer for Obessed is terrible it looks a complete turd. I laughed out loud the first time i saw the trailer attached to Notorious in January.

Keep checking Mase's site periodically. He hasn't done anything new since Hannah Montana's OW two weeks ago, but I'm sure his absence is only temporary.

If anyone can cull some more recent numbers from any other sites, please post them. God knows many of us are lost without that little nudge in the right direction...

I took the HSX numbers and divided them by 2.2 (since they multiply OW by 2.2) and got this:

Obsessed: 22.93 M
Soloist: 12.81 M
Fighting: 10.38 M
Earth 7.35 M

Good as any guess... At least this one is an average of thousands of people.

I read at Boxofficemojo that Earth had something like a 4 million Wed. It should be set for a very good weekend.

BarcaRulz wrote:I read at Boxofficemojo that Earth had something like a 4 million Wed. It should be set for a very good weekend.

Yep. Just saw that. Tickets have been sold for it since last fall, though...

I expect Earth to do very well, as I know there are a lot of schools going to see it as part of class trips and such...

Good call on Earth, Buscemi. Not only was it a pretty good flick, it looks like it'll get some cash before Wolverine cleans up shop.