Seven Pounds Over 150 Million Club

C'mon people join up. It's Will Smith, It's the Holidays, It's money in the bank. His last try with director Gabriele Muccino brought in 164 M. This also has Oscar hype going for it. It's going to be huge.





TV SPot #2

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JackO
Undeadmonkey
TheJman

I think there is a little bit too much competition in this one to make more than $150 million. I think it will get past $100 million, and finish somewhere around $115-$125M.

Will Smith will definitely carry it a long way by himself, the supporting cast is fantastic and should help with bringing in some moolah as well. Also, 'from the director of Pursuit' will help because that Will Smith-Gabriele Muccino film was very well received by movie-goers.

I'm not in. The reason is that the film doesn't appeal to children or families. The Pursuit Of Happyness did. Sure they've got a kid in there (Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman's adopted son, Conor Cruise) but he's only a supporting character and he's not being used as a focal point in the advertising.

I'm in. I think it'll just pass $150M

I think $110 million tops. Too much competition for it to reach $150 million.

At best, $130 million. I just don't really see the appeal, and I don't even see it as an Oscar contender which I think would be its only chance at making money in that region. Yes it has Will Smith, which will guarantee $100m, but it won't break the stratosphere.

Your added Undead. Welcome to the club! I'm surprised by the lack of confidence. I thought this club would be a slam dunk. Will Smith, December, and Oscars. Sure, it's FM/Shryke price is obnoxious but it will definitely make some cash!

Last year there were 3 films that cracked the $200 million mark for the Christmas period; National Treasure 2, Alvin and the Chipmunks and I Am Legend.

This year's field appears pretty weak with none looking like they'll beat that mark. The financial crisis isn't going to hit the movie industry quite that badly so the money has got to go somewhere and I reckon that Seven Pounds is the most likely out of this years crop to make it.

I'm in.

I can see Bedtime Stories and Yes Man hitting $200 million with an outside shot for The Day The Earth Stood Still and Marley and Me.

Meanwhile, the financial crisis probably won't affect box office this Christmas. Box office numbers are usually up during recessions.

$125 is my estimate. Top grossing movie of December will be Bedtime Stories @ $160-175 M.

I think it'll crack 100 million, maybe 120 million.

I think people will go to see mainly cause it's Will Smith and because of general curiosity because I don't know what the hell this movie is about.

Lilly, I liked your Bella Swan avatar more but I guess it's your choice.

Not in. I love Will Smith. I enjoy everything he does. However, I bet against him with "I Am Legend" and got burned. Still, I don't think this movie will repeat "The Pursuit of Happyness" success. It just doesn't appeal to a wide audience and competition is very strong this year. I think around $100M.

Not In im going with 115-125 dont think it can break 150

I'm not in but I think it will be close. 140 total.

I'm going to have to go with the under on this one. Don't think the financial crisis will hurt movie attendance at all escpecially with gas prices now below $2.00 in many areas. So far, this one just doesn't seem to have the "I have to see this one opening day" vibe to it that most of this movies have. I'm sure we'll see it, but it may be one that we wait until after the reviews are in. Right now, the only blockbusters that currently are on our "Have to see" list are Day, Marley and Despereaux. Non blockbusters on the list are Frost/Nixon and Cadillac Records.

Because Pittsburgh is such a small market, we won't be getting Milk, Gran Torino, Defiance, Doubt, The Brothers Bloom, Revolutionary Road or The Reader until after the new year.

Benjamin Button, Valkyrie and The Spirit are on the maybe list depending on the reviews along with 7 Pounds.

If I could put an exact number for it, I would put it near to 175 M. I'll just say this, if Will Smith could, by himself, propel a craptactular picture like Hancock to 222 M, then doing another Oscar hyped drama should be easy! It should win the weekend with around 40 M and have some great legs through January. It might not have the rush aspect of some of his other hits, but I think W.O.M. will propel it just like Pursuit.

JackO wrote:If I could put an exact number for it, I would put it near to 175 M. I'll just say this, if Will Smith could, by himself, propel a craptactular picture like Hancock to 222 M, then doing another Oscar hyped drama should be easy! It should win the weekend with around 40 M and have some great legs through January. It might not have the rush aspect of some of his other hits, but I think W.O.M. will propel it just like Pursuit.

1. Hancock was a superhero comedy/action blockbuster released during the summer, on one of the most profitable weekends to do so.

2. Seven Pounds is going to be in a very competitive market come December.

3. It is only tracking at a mid-20s OW. Sure it's still a while away, but i doubt it will double it's tracking right now.

Keyser Soze wrote:I'm going to have to go with the under on this one. Don't think the financial crisis will hurt movie attendance at all escpecially with gas prices now below $2.00 in many areas. So far, this one just doesn't seem to have the "I have to see this one opening day" vibe to it that most of this movies have. I'm sure we'll see it, but it may be one that we wait until after the reviews are in. Right now, the only blockbusters that currently are on our "Have to see" list are Day, Marley and Despereaux. Non blockbusters on the list are Frost/Nixon and Cadillac Records.

Because Pittsburgh is such a small market, we won't be getting Milk, Gran Torino, Defiance, Doubt, The Brothers Bloom, Revolutionary Road or The Reader until after the new year.

Benjamin Button, Valkyrie and The Spirit are on the maybe list depending on the reviews along with 7 Pounds.

Wow, Pittsburgh's a small market now? Last time I checked, it was still a pretty large market. Especially to support three major sports teams.

But then again St. Louis has also entered that "small to Hollywood" market due to some misplaced census records back in 2000 (this should change in 2010) and a state government that skews to the Bible belt Southern area, where films not named Fireproof and Left Behind are considered evil.

BarcaRulz wrote:

JackO wrote:If I could put an exact number for it, I would put it near to 175 M. I'll just say this, if Will Smith could, by himself, propel a craptactular picture like Hancock to 222 M, then doing another Oscar hyped drama should be easy! It should win the weekend with around 40 M and have some great legs through January. It might not have the rush aspect of some of his other hits, but I think W.O.M. will propel it just like Pursuit.

1. Hancock was a superhero comedy/action blockbuster released during the summer, on one of the most profitable weekends to do so.

2. Seven Pounds is going to be in a very competitive market come December.

3. It is only tracking at a mid-20s OW. Sure it's still a while away, but i doubt it will double it's tracking right now.

1. Seven Pounds is also being released during the winter holiday session which is also known for big blockbusters.

2. I think you have it the other way around. The other movies out there will be competing for #2. Will Smith has had 8 movies open at #1. The December 19th weekend will be no different. Then there is the Christmas/New Years holidays the weekend after. It will come near to doubling it's OW with before December comes to a close.

3. I Am Legend was only tracking at 60M the week of it's opening.

I agree with Barca. 'Seven Pounds' has alot to overcome. Tracking has been very moderate for the last couple weeks so I don't expect it to suddenly spike before its release. I don't think there's any way it is getting over $150M.

As for 'I Am Legend' outdoing its tracking, remember the bigger the number, the bigger the possibility of the margin of error being wider. That said, even if 7PS outdoes its tracking by a similar margin (which would mean discounting the lesser competition and bigger buzz that IAL had), it'll still only be around a $10M or less difference, which I believe is not enough to take it over the call number.

Buscemi wrote:Wow, Pittsburgh's a small market now? Last time I checked, it was still a pretty large market. Especially to support three major sports teams.

But then again St. Louis has also entered that "small to Hollywood" market due to some misplaced census records back in 2000 (this should change in 2010) and a state government that skews to the Bible belt Southern area, where films not named Fireproof and Left Behind are considered evil.

Yeah, we've been relegated to small market size. According to the last Neilsen survey, Pittsburgh came in as the 23rd ranked TV market falling behind Portland and just ahead of Baltimore, and that's probably skewing high because it most likely counts eastern Ohio and Northern WV TV households. Going on sheer population, our metropolitan area is barely 1 million.

If it came down to a choice between seeing an art house movie or watching a re-run of a regular season Steeler game from the 1970's, the majority of the folks here would take the latter.

Could happen. It won't have much competition for its opening weekend, but its second weekend will be flooded with other releases.

I found it Jacko, I found your club idea.

I'm out of this club. It looks like my sort of movie, one that I will enjoy, which means it won't do well in the American Box Office.

Keyser Soze wrote:

Buscemi wrote:Wow, Pittsburgh's a small market now? Last time I checked, it was still a pretty large market. Especially to support three major sports teams.

But then again St. Louis has also entered that "small to Hollywood" market due to some misplaced census records back in 2000 (this should change in 2010) and a state government that skews to the Bible belt Southern area, where films not named Fireproof and Left Behind are considered evil.

Yeah, we've been relegated to small market size. According to the last Neilsen survey, Pittsburgh came in as the 23rd ranked TV market falling behind Portland and just ahead of Baltimore, and that's probably skewing high because it most likely counts eastern Ohio and Northern WV TV households. Going on sheer population, our metropolitan area is barely 1 million.

If it came down to a choice between seeing an art house movie or watching a re-run of a regular season Steeler game from the 1970's, the majority of the folks here would take the latter.

However, a documentary on the Immaculate Reception would make a great arthouse film. Especially to hear laughter from Terry Bradshaw (he sure can bring down a house, often unintentionally).