Tracking for Jan. 16th

Huge differences between RS and MTC


RS 1/16 (MTC was posted on B2)
-- notfabio, Jan 12, 23:06
Bloody: Mid 20's
Hotel For Dogs: Mid Teens
Notorious: Mid Teens
Paul Blart: Between 9-11
Defiance: Between 8-10
Last Chance Harvey: Same as MTC


Future:
Inkheart: Between 6-9 million
New In Town: Low Teens
Taken: Between 8-10
Uninvited: Between: 7-9 million
Underworld: Mid 20's

MTC 1/16 4 days
-- notfabio, Jan 12, 14:41
My Bloody: 29
Paul Blart: 24
Notorious: 16
Hotel: 13
Defiance: 7
Harvey: 4

Wow, those Inkheart and The Uninvited numbers are just bad. I guess that's what happens when other similar films beat you to the punch.

When MTC is that much bigger than RS, movies normally break out even above the MTC number. That probably won't happen for Paul Blart, but just saying.

24 for Paul Blart? Yeah right....

I don't understand how there can be that big a difference for a non-blockbuster movie.

Having said that, i think 24 million is a pretty big reach for the mall cop. 15-ish is where i would put it.

Any Steve Mason estimates?

Yeah, I just posted it in the Steve Mason's Column thread, but here are the quick estimates:

FINAL WEEKEND 4-DAY MLK WEEKEND PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 16-19
1. NEW - Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $29.6M
2. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $25M
3. NEW - My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $20.5M
4. NEW - Hotel For Dogs (Paramount) - $19.74M
5. Bride Wars (Fox) - $13.78M
6. NEW - Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $10M
7. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $8.21M
8. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $7.31M
9. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $7.38M
10. The Unborn (Rogue) - $6.93M
11. Marley & Me (Fox) - $6.62M
12. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $5.28M

Now the question is, do I add Blart to some of my slates?

I think Slumdog will do a bit better since the globes, considering it's shot to #5 the day after and stayed there since...tho it does depend on the expansion.

I already had Paul Blart, but I think now I'll jump on the MBV $5 bandwagon.

BTW, note to all: continuing problems with my home computer have made it extremely unlikely that I'll be posting the standings for the Super Leagues. But then, given that they're only a week in, maybe that's not such a big deal.

Due to Paul Blart's weekend estimates and the low tracking of Inkheart, I changed the two in all my slates. I hope its worth it, last time I made an 11th hour change, it bit me in the ass (back in July I changed the Wanted/Get Smart combo for Hancock and another movie when Mason predicted a $150m dollar opening for Hancock. Mistake, to say the least).

I now have enough leftover money that I have to figure out some changes.

mfrendo wrote:I think Slumdog will do a bit better since the globes, considering it's shot to #5 the day after and stayed there since...tho it does depend on the expansion.

It's actually declining in theater count this week, so I'd shave a couple mill off of Mason's estimates but I do expect it to have a higher weekend gross then last week thanks to the holidays.

... And the fact that it has jumped from #10 to #5 during the weekdays because of the Globes.

Box Office Mojo lists an expansion to about 1000 screens for Slumdog Millionaire next week though.

The tracking is all over the place this week.

A big weekend seems to be in play here. I have been seeing several sellouts for both My Bloody Valentine and Notorious while searching through Fandango. My theater has sold out two of each.

Yeah, with the tracking all over the place, I went down to the lowest common denominator to decide...a horror film in 3D, and a kids movie with dogs (after getting nice hits with BVC and Marley and Me...). I think Hotel For Dogs may be bigger than people are expecting...

I'm going to see the Wrestler tomorrow in Hartford. I haven't been this excited for a movies since The Dark Knight!

Yeah, the Wrestler is a good movie for sure...not sure how I felt about the ending...after you watch it we can discuss...

I can definitely see what you mean about the ending, but I loved it. I thought it worked perfectly for this particular movie. For most movies, I would feel the same as you, but here I just think it worked because the movie really didn't need to go any further.