Tracking for Jan. 16th

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by JackO on Wed Jan 14, 2009 2:00 am

Huge differences between RS and MTC


RS 1/16 (MTC was posted on B2)
-- notfabio, Jan 12, 23:06
Bloody: Mid 20's
Hotel For Dogs: Mid Teens
Notorious: Mid Teens
Paul Blart: Between 9-11
Defiance: Between 8-10
Last Chance Harvey: Same as MTC


Future:
Inkheart: Between 6-9 million
New In Town: Low Teens
Taken: Between 8-10
Uninvited: Between: 7-9 million
Underworld: Mid 20's

MTC 1/16 4 days
-- notfabio, Jan 12, 14:41
My Bloody: 29
Paul Blart: 24
Notorious: 16
Hotel: 13
Defiance: 7
Harvey: 4
avatar
JackO
Lt. Frank Drebin
Lt. Frank Drebin

Posts : 907
Join date : 2008-11-25
Age : 31
Location : The Dark Side of Michigan

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by Buscemi on Wed Jan 14, 2009 3:12 am

Wow, those Inkheart and The Uninvited numbers are just bad. I guess that's what happens when other similar films beat you to the punch.

_________________
"Dare to be stupid."- Weird Al Yankovic

My DVD's: http://damntheseloginnames.dvdaf.com/

The film lasts 99 minutes. The terror lasts forever.
Paranormal Activity
Now playing in select cities, coming soon everywhere.

Don't see it alone.
avatar
Buscemi
Tony Stark/ Iron Man
Tony Stark/ Iron Man

Posts : 3771
Join date : 2008-11-26
Age : 27
Location : Springfield, Missouri

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by J.I. on Wed Jan 14, 2009 4:37 am

When MTC is that much bigger than RS, movies normally break out even above the MTC number. That probably won't happen for Paul Blart, but just saying.
avatar
J.I.
Nick Naylor
Nick Naylor

Posts : 364
Join date : 2008-11-30
Age : 23
Location : Right here

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:00 am

24 for Paul Blart? Yeah right....
avatar
BanksIsDaFuture
Marv
Marv

Posts : 1723
Join date : 2008-11-25
Age : 29
Location : Lost In The Midwest, against my will.

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by BarcaRulz on Thu Jan 15, 2009 6:22 pm

I don't understand how there can be that big a difference for a non-blockbuster movie.

Having said that, i think 24 million is a pretty big reach for the mall cop. 15-ish is where i would put it.

_________________
-----------------------------------------------------
avatar
BarcaRulz
Admin
Admin

Posts : 799
Join date : 2008-11-25
Age : 30

View user profile http://thefantaverse.forumotion.net

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by Shrykespeare on Thu Jan 15, 2009 8:07 pm

Any Steve Mason estimates?

_________________
Michael, we don't have a lot of time on this earth! We weren't meant to spend it this way. Human beings were not meant to sit in little cubicles staring at computer screens all day, filling out useless forms and listening to eight different bosses drone on about about mission statements!
avatar
Shrykespeare
Peter Gibbons
Peter Gibbons

Posts : 1455
Join date : 2008-11-26
Age : 48
Location : Glendale, AZ

View user profile http://www.thelatestmoviereviews.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by J-Man on Thu Jan 15, 2009 10:55 pm

Yeah, I just posted it in the Steve Mason's Column thread, but here are the quick estimates:

FINAL WEEKEND 4-DAY MLK WEEKEND PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 16-19
1. NEW - Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $29.6M
2. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $25M
3. NEW - My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $20.5M
4. NEW - Hotel For Dogs (Paramount) - $19.74M
5. Bride Wars (Fox) - $13.78M
6. NEW - Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $10M
7. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $8.21M
8. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $7.31M
9. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $7.38M
10. The Unborn (Rogue) - $6.93M
11. Marley & Me (Fox) - $6.62M
12. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $5.28M

Now the question is, do I add Blart to some of my slates?

J-Man
Juno MacGuff
Juno MacGuff

Posts : 171
Join date : 2008-12-05

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by mfrendo on Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:09 pm

I think Slumdog will do a bit better since the globes, considering it's shot to #5 the day after and stayed there since...tho it does depend on the expansion.
avatar
mfrendo
Fletch
Fletch

Posts : 737
Join date : 2008-11-26
Location : California

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by Shrykespeare on Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:46 pm

I already had Paul Blart, but I think now I'll jump on the MBV $5 bandwagon.

BTW, note to all: continuing problems with my home computer have made it extremely unlikely that I'll be posting the standings for the Super Leagues. But then, given that they're only a week in, maybe that's not such a big deal.

_________________
Michael, we don't have a lot of time on this earth! We weren't meant to spend it this way. Human beings were not meant to sit in little cubicles staring at computer screens all day, filling out useless forms and listening to eight different bosses drone on about about mission statements!
avatar
Shrykespeare
Peter Gibbons
Peter Gibbons

Posts : 1455
Join date : 2008-11-26
Age : 48
Location : Glendale, AZ

View user profile http://www.thelatestmoviereviews.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by J-Man on Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:53 am

Due to Paul Blart's weekend estimates and the low tracking of Inkheart, I changed the two in all my slates. I hope its worth it, last time I made an 11th hour change, it bit me in the ass (back in July I changed the Wanted/Get Smart combo for Hancock and another movie when Mason predicted a $150m dollar opening for Hancock. Mistake, to say the least).

I now have enough leftover money that I have to figure out some changes.

J-Man
Juno MacGuff
Juno MacGuff

Posts : 171
Join date : 2008-12-05

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by JackO on Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:13 am

mfrendo wrote:I think Slumdog will do a bit better since the globes, considering it's shot to #5 the day after and stayed there since...tho it does depend on the expansion.

It's actually declining in theater count this week, so I'd shave a couple mill off of Mason's estimates but I do expect it to have a higher weekend gross then last week thanks to the holidays.
avatar
JackO
Lt. Frank Drebin
Lt. Frank Drebin

Posts : 907
Join date : 2008-11-25
Age : 31
Location : The Dark Side of Michigan

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by J.I. on Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:31 am

... And the fact that it has jumped from #10 to #5 during the weekdays because of the Globes.
avatar
J.I.
Nick Naylor
Nick Naylor

Posts : 364
Join date : 2008-11-30
Age : 23
Location : Right here

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by MisterInformative on Fri Jan 16, 2009 8:08 am

Box Office Mojo lists an expansion to about 1000 screens for Slumdog Millionaire next week though.
avatar
MisterInformative
Alex Murphy
Alex Murphy

Posts : 225
Join date : 2008-11-25
Age : 29
Location : Appleton, WI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by transformers2 on Sat Jan 17, 2009 3:56 am

The tracking is all over the place this week.
avatar
transformers2
Borat
Borat

Posts : 1253
Join date : 2008-11-26
Age : 25
Location : Swampscott,Massachusetts

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by J.I. on Sat Jan 17, 2009 5:56 am

A big weekend seems to be in play here. I have been seeing several sellouts for both My Bloody Valentine and Notorious while searching through Fandango. My theater has sold out two of each.
avatar
J.I.
Nick Naylor
Nick Naylor

Posts : 364
Join date : 2008-11-30
Age : 23
Location : Right here

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by mfrendo on Sat Jan 17, 2009 7:15 am

Yeah, with the tracking all over the place, I went down to the lowest common denominator to decide...a horror film in 3D, and a kids movie with dogs (after getting nice hits with BVC and Marley and Me...). I think Hotel For Dogs may be bigger than people are expecting...
avatar
mfrendo
Fletch
Fletch

Posts : 737
Join date : 2008-11-26
Location : California

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by geezer9687 on Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:58 am

I'm going to see the Wrestler tomorrow in Hartford. I haven't been this excited for a movies since The Dark Knight!

_________________
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man. - The Dude

Check out my blog! http://geezersworld.blogspot.com/
avatar
geezer9687
The Frankenstein Monster
The Frankenstein Monster

Posts : 2384
Join date : 2008-11-25
Age : 30
Location : Chicopee,MA

View user profile http://geezersworld.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by mfrendo on Sat Jan 17, 2009 1:29 pm

Yeah, the Wrestler is a good movie for sure...not sure how I felt about the ending...after you watch it we can discuss...
avatar
mfrendo
Fletch
Fletch

Posts : 737
Join date : 2008-11-26
Location : California

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by geezer9687 on Sun Jan 18, 2009 6:04 am

I can definitely see what you mean about the ending, but I loved it. I thought it worked perfectly for this particular movie. For most movies, I would feel the same as you, but here I just think it worked because the movie really didn't need to go any further.

_________________
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man. - The Dude

Check out my blog! http://geezersworld.blogspot.com/
avatar
geezer9687
The Frankenstein Monster
The Frankenstein Monster

Posts : 2384
Join date : 2008-11-25
Age : 30
Location : Chicopee,MA

View user profile http://geezersworld.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Tracking for Jan. 16th

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum