Apr 10th Tracking

I don't know how this will fit in, but 17 Again has been released in Australia, and today there were three sell-outs. That's VERY impressive.

Any word from Mase yet?

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:I agree with W. - Obsessed will end up anywhere between $50-$70, winning its OW and being 2nd or 3rd the next weekend (depending on how well Ghosts of Girlfriend's Past does).

Ghosts of Girlfriends Past will crush it. $20+ million opening weekend is definately not out of the question.

mfrendo wrote:

brockman81 wrote:Those are bigger numbers than the Monday/Tuesday following its opening weekend! Looks like it's going to have great legs.

This is Spring Break for most elementary schools, so the numbers will prob be abnormally high this week.

Yeah but its still great. MvA is heading for $200 million, but Fast and Furious is dropping like a rock.

BarcaRulz wrote:I don't know how this will fit in, but 17 Again has been released in Australia, and today there were three sell-outs. That's VERY impressive.

And it has a 91% tomatometer.

EDIT: I do not understand how to work this "Multi-Quote" thing at all. I'm still using Copy and Paste.

Mason's predictions are up.

http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/04/09/easter-tracking/

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR APRIL 10-12
1. Fast & Furious (Universal) - $30M
2. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) - $24.6M
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $21M
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) - $19.5M
5. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) - $10.7M
6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) - $5.1M
7. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.9M
8. Knowing (Summit) - $4.8M
9. Adventureland (Miramax) -$3.4M
10. Duplicity (Universal) - $2.4M

[quote="J.I."]

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:And it has a 91% tomatometer.

EDIT: I do not understand how to work this "Multi-Quote" thing at all. I'm still using Copy and Paste.

Yes.. That tomatometer rating is shocking. I haven't told anyone this to be honest, but i actually liked the trailer, plus i'll watch anything with Leslie Mann and Mathew Perry. Now i'm actually going to watch the movie, i'll just have to tolerate the tweens i guess and hope for the best.

PS: to use the multi-quote, just press the multi-quote button on the posts you want to quote, then press the POST REPLY button and they will be there waiting for you.

Apparently HM has been selling out like crazy all over the country. Most likely looking at a high 30's opening for now.

Hannah Montana looks like a monster. That's what everyone around here was seeing.

Meanwhile, I went to a rush hour showing of Observe and Report and it was probably only a fourth full.

DHD: SMILEY MILEY! 'Hannah Montana' Opening With Huge $13M Friday: Could Be #1 Family Film Of All Time Over Easter Weekend

"...rival studios say the Miley Cyrus starrer could end up iover $30M for the weekend. That would make this the #1 biggest Easter Weekend family film of all time, and possibly the #2 biggest Easter weekend ever."

Will it reach the HSM3 $90M total?

It will be heavily frontloaded, but should still reach 75 million at least.

I was actually thinking that it could do something like this, but I wasn't sure if the youngsters would go back for repeat viewings like they didn't for the previously mentioned HSM3.

W wrote:I was actually thinking that it could do something like this, but I wasn't sure if the youngsters would go back for repeat viewings like they didn't for the previously mentioned HSM3.

I dropped the film from two box office leagues last night because I was unsure of how it'd all play out - I thought it might be big, but if it only opened to mid 20s like Mase predicted and had a run like HSM3, then I didn't think it'd be worth it. Also, the Jonas Bros. movie died quickly. But if it reaches the $90M for HSM3 it'd be worth the $16 BO April money.

Two weeks in a row a film has defied all expectations. Finke has it at 40+ when all the gurus had it in the late 20s. MTC had it even lower!

BOM studio estimates are saying $17.4 million. And MvA rose 3.2% from last Friday!

Mase's Saturday estimates:

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) - $17.39M, $5,577 PTA, $17.39M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) - $10.6M, $3,053PTA, $99.85M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $9.07M, $2,193 PTA, $127.46M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) - $4.76M, $1,746 PTA, $4.76M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) - $2.4M, $821 PTA, $63.73M cume
6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) - $2.35, $864 PTA, $42.93M cume
7. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $2.3M, $870 PTA, $54.88M cume
8. NEW - Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) - $2M, $917 PTA, $2M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) - $1.25M, $666 PTA, $9.26M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) - $1M, $509 PTA, $34.85M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) - $39M, $12,508 PTA, $39M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) - $30M, $8,641 PTA, $119.25M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $22.85M, $5,525 PTA, $141.24M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) - $12.05M, $4,419PTA, $12.05M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) - $6.49M, $2,219 PTA, $67.82M cume
6. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $6.25M, $2,365 PTA, $58.83M cume
7. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) - $6.06M, $2,227 PTA, $46.64M cume
8. NEW - Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) - $5.2M, $2,384 PTA, $5.2M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) - $3.2M, $1,706 PTA, $11.21M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) - $2.95M, $1,501 PTA, $36.8M cume


IMDb User Ratings:

Observe and Report - 7.0
Dragonball Evolution - 3.1
Hannah Montana - N/A
Lymelife - 8.7
Anvil! - 8.8
Forbidden Lie$ - 7.8



Est. theaters counts for next week:

17 Again - 3000+
Crank 2 - 2200
State of Play - 2700+
Sleep Dealer - 30
Is Anybody There - 6
Lemon Tree - 2
American Violet - N/A
Every Little Step - N/A (NY/LA opening according to ComingSoon)

that estimated 12K PTA by Hannah is going to be tough to beat.

Damn. $40m for Hannah Montana! I was hoping following Jonas Bros.' bomb that it would be the end of this run. That's even better than it's OW from last year! Damn.

Observe and Report has bombed. Obviously it was released too close to Paul Blart.

serves me right for reading the weekend tracking and blindly insisting on impossible numbers for Observe and Report.. but don't despair, we're still yet to personally see it.. so count on an additional $12.50 ($6.25 x 2) to its box office total

I think that Observe and Report disappointed simply because it was too dark for an audience looking for light fare with likeable characters. Also because it was released against I Love You, Man and Adventureland, two other films aimed towards the same audience.

And American Violet will be opening in the top ten markets.

Buscemi wrote: Also because it was released against I Love You, Man and Adventureland, two other films aimed towards the same audience.

Yes, obviously Adventureland's $3m weekend is totally destroying Observe And Report's OW.....

I'm just saying that the same target audience is divided between three movies. Five if you count Fast and Furious and Monsters vs. Aliens (more Rogen action).

I think its more likely that Rogen isn't ready to support a movie on his own yet without Apatow to back him up. Zach And Miri also proved that theory.

I just have no idea why. He's been a pretty sure thing, talent-wise. The guy is hilarious.

I think his appeal is very limited, however. Mainstream audiences may find him too crude for their liking, meaning mainly teenage boys - mid 20s will find him funny. I'm not berating him myself, I just think that could definitely be a factor in his limited widespread success.

But couldn't you really say the same thing about will ferrell? and he has had huge success.

For a start it took Will Ferrell a long, long time to get there playing great supporting role characters in successful movies, and only now is he a major player. Beyond the Apatow movies, I just don't think Rogen is well known enough yet to be at that level.