SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 4/10 - Hannah Montana, Dragonball Evolution, Observe and Report

Well, thank God ONE of the March hype-monsters actually lived up to its promise… after Watchmen stalled going 'round the firs turn, looking like it will limp to about $110 million (I predicted $180, and others predicted even higher), and Race to Witch Mountain also underwhelmed, probably earning just over $60 million (I predicted $85, I think), it’s good to see that Monsters vs. Aliens hit the ground running. Not only does it look like it’s going to easily take the crown for the biggest dollar-earner in the first third of 2009, but it’s the first movie this year that I’ve actually ENJOYED, from beginning to end (and seeing it in 3-D helped a lot).

Today I’ll be talking about the films of April 10th, which will herald three new titles, each one fitting into a different category: an almost surefire hit, an almost surefire miss, and one with one ginormous question mark hanging over it. (You shouldn’t have any trouble figuring out which is which, even before you read any further.)

A few months ago, I would have said that Hannah Montana: The Movie (G) would be a slam-bang megahit. After all, we all remember how shocked we were when Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert zoomed to over $70 million in grosses, and becoming a PTA giant despite the fact that it never showed in more than 700 theaters at one time. One would think that a full-length feature film following the exploits of Disney Channel cash cow Hannah Montana, a pop star who leads a double life as ordinary high-school girl Miley Stewart, would rake in the bucks as well.

However, we must temper our enthusiasm with a modicum of caution. The Jonas Brothers concert movie was SUPPOSED to follow the trend and be a breakout smash hit. It wasn’t. Actually, that’s an understatement: it was a complete bust, not even pulling in $20 million in receipts, despite a wider release than Both Worlds got. That, coupled with the fact that thousands of IMDb users waged a personal war on this film, to the effect that it ended up with a User Rating of 1.3 (good enough for #1 on the Worst Films of All Time list), makes me wonder just what lies in store for Hannah Montana.

In this story, judging from the trailer, Hannah’s “secret identity” will be revealed to the world, forcing her to finally choose which persona she wants to adopt once and for all. To avoid the press and commotion, Miley’s father (Billy Ray Cyrus) takes her back to his hometown of Crowley Corners, Tennessee, to reflect on the things that truly matter in her life. Yeah, sounds like Disney all right.

I don’t imagine many of you will see this film, or buy the album, or give it more than two seconds thought. It will run you $14 in the April Ultimate leagues and $16 in the April Box Office leagues, and it would seem an iffy prospect in both. A $20 million opening seems likely (accent on “seems”), which may or may not be good enough to get past Fast and Furious in its second week (which some pundits have opening in the $40 million range), or perhaps even Monsters vs. Aliens in its third week (depending on how well that film holds).

If you don’t believe it has enough juice to compete, stay away from this title. I don’t foresee it earning more than seven Top 5 points (and possibly as low as three), a handful of PTA, and, naturally, an abysmal User Rating. If tracking suggests a fantastic opening, it might be worth it in Box Office, but watch out for that 60-plus percent dropoff in the following weeks.

There is no gray area, however, surrounding the possibilities for Dragonball Evolution (PG)... it’s going to tank. Much like Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li did a month ago, this one has had next to zero marketing, zero exposure and, subsequently, zero chance for success.

An adaptation of the Japanese manga series, this live-action film is being produced by 20th Century Fox. Directed by James Wong and produced by Stephen Chow (yes, that one), it stars Justin Chatwin as Goku, a teen who goes on a journey to find Master Roshi (Chow Yun-Fat) and gather the seven mystical Dragon Balls before the evil Lord Piccolo (James Marsters) can. He gathers several allies along the way, to help him fight the forces of evil. Jamie Chung, Emmy Rossum, Randall Duk Kim and Ernie Hudson co-star.

A few months ago, I would have said that this looks like it could be 2009’s Forbidden Kingdom. However, THAT film at least was marketed as well as it could be, and had the benefit of teaming up arguably the two biggest martial-arts action stars in the world, Jackie Chan and Jet Li, for the first time. I honestly don’t know how much juice this franchise still has, or whether anyone – AT ALL – has been clamoring for a movie version of this story. Early tracking says that Dragonball Evolution will open with less than $10 million, and I think that’s being optimistic. Even for $6 in Box Office ($7 in Ultimate), this title will do you no favors whatsoever. Avoid it.

The film with the biggest chance of being a good pick, by far, is Observe and Report (R), the latest vehicle for comic actor Seth Rogen. In this film, Rogen plays Ronnie Barnhardt, a mall cop with an attitude. Now, I know what you’re thinking… it’s going to be a dirtier, bawdier version of January’s surprise smash hit Paul Blart: Mall Cop, right? Well, maybe on the surface, but not much more than that. Rogen’s character does not have to battle a cadre of armed villains Die Hard-style like Kevin James did… rather, his nemesis here is… a flasher.

But let’s back up. From what I gather from the trailer, Rogen plays Ronnie as the “mall cop from Hell”, ruling his little piece of turf with an iron fist, smacking down offenders of all ages and severity levels with ruthless fervor. When a rogue flasher begins terrorizing the mall he calls his own, he sees it as a way to kill two birds with one stone: to get close to a girl (Anna Faris) that he’s had the hots for for some time, and to stick it to the police force – and specifically, a surly detective named Harrison (Ray Liotta) – who turned him down.

Observe is directed by Jody Hill, who also helmed the wacky The Foot Fist Way in 2006. If any of you have seen that film, you may be better prepared for this film, which could be another well-received R-rated comedy on the heels of I Love You, Man. But don’t be misled: this film is as dirty and seedy as they come. Think of Rogen’s cop from Superbad, only with a go-kart instead of a patrol car, and hopped up on meth, Red Bull and Pixie Stix, and you’ve got the general flavor of Observe and Report. If you loved Rogen in Knocked Up and/or Pineapple Express, you’ll probably like this as well.

$13 seems like a big gamble to take on this film in Ultimate ($14 in Box Office), considering that it has to go toe-to-toe with Monsters vs. Aliens, Fast and Furious and Hannah Montana all at the same time. Granted, the demographic is much different, but it will still take a very strong effort to come away with more than three Top 5 points, a fair-to-middling User Rating, and perhaps $50 million total. It seems to be a bigger bargain in the February leagues, where it will only run you $7. Grab it in that league, if you have any money left to spend.

My predictions for the weekend of April 10-12, 2009:

1. Fast and Furious - $38 million
2. Hannah Montana: The Movie - $20 million
3. Observe and Report - $18 million
4. Monsters vs. Aliens - $16 million
5. Dragonball Evolution - $9 million

Well, that will, thankfully, do it for me for another week. Next week, I’ll be chewing on the films of April 17th: State of Play, a political thriller starring Russell Crowe, Ben Affleck and Rachel McAdams; 17 Again, a modern-day Big-in-reverse story where a 37-year-old man (Matthew Perry) reverts to his teenage self (HSM star Zac Efron); and Crank: High Voltage, a mind-bogglingly implausible sequel returning Jason Statham as Chev Chelios, a guy who must keep his body juiced with electricity while he scrambles to retrieve his stolen heart. Oh, I’m going to have fun bashing this one to pieces…

Later!

Though Stephen Chow is credited as producing Dragonball: Evolution, he is producer in name only. He left the project before production started because he didn't like the direction that the project was going (in other words, too much studio interference).

Meanwhile, my Top 5 prediction:
1.Hannah Montana $30 million
2.Monsters vs. Aliens $20 million
3.Observe and Report $18 million
4.Fast and Furious $9 million
--Dragonball Evolution $4 million

On this one, I have to say BOOOOOOOOcemi! Underestimating F&F and, to a much lesser extent, Dragonball. I see $6-8 M for Dragonball, and a second weekend of just over $20 M for F&F.

1. Hannah Montana $25 M
2. Fast and Furious $22 M
3. Monsters $19 M
4. Observe $16 M
5. Knowing $8 M
6. Dragonball $7.5 M
7. I Love You Man $7 M

Word of mouth for Dragonball Evolution is awful and it is really easy to find bootlegs of the film. If anyone wants to see the film, they will download for free instead of paying $8.00 to see it in an empty theatre with other people who equally hate it.

I'm sticking with a $4 million opening.

Does anyone really think downloads are destroying the market yet? I for one don't. I'd much rather go see a movie in a cinema than on a small screen. And I think Taken's receipts only back up that theory. Was it you again, Boussh, that proclaimed nobody would see that as it was already available? Clocking on $140m now....


Not that I'm suggesting Dragonball will break out.

The difference between Taken and Dragonball: people actually liked Taken.

You are all underestimating Observe and Report. They are marketing the shit out of it, it looks hilarious, and it has no competition. Fast and Furious will have steep drops.

Buscemi wrote:The difference between Taken and Dragonball: people actually liked Taken.

However, my point was that movies which may be readily available does not mean they won't succeed in theatres. Dragonball will bomb, no doubt, but I doubt it will be because most of its fans will have already seen it.

And I think Observe And Report has the potential to be big, I'm just not sure how big yet. Maybe I'll stick at $60m for now.

I got Hannah winning the weekend, however Observe and Report's marketing has been huge the past two weeks so I would not be surprise dif it did more then it is tracking.

1. Hannah Montana - 25M
2. Observe and Report - 22M
3. Fast and Furious - 20.7M
4. Monsters v Aliens - 20.5M
5. Dragonball - 9M

And it will definitely have better legs than Hannah Montana. Not that I was checking out her legs. That would be perverted.

Tranny can check out her legs... they're the same age, after all...

You probably want to redo your predictions, Shryke?

Changed F&F... am sticking by the others (for now).

Changing my Fast and Furious prediction to $19 million (the drop should be similar to Hellboy 2 from last year).

I don't think it'll drop like a rock just because you want it to, Buscemi, but I don't think it'll be a great hold either. The other ones held at 50, 63, and 60 percent respectively and this is a true sequel to the first, so I say we split the difference and make it a drop of 55%.

Meanwhile, the highest opener this weekend will be Hannah Montana. I think it'll hit $75-80 M overall and it'll do that with bigger than average drops. Let's say $32 M.

Observe and Report has a great advertising campaign, but I don't think it'll be a break out hit. $22 M.

1. Fast and Furious $32.625 M
2. Hanna Montana $32 M
3. Observe and Report $22 M
4. Monsters v. Aliens $18 M
5. Dragonball $6 M

W, A drop of 55% would give F and F 32.625 million. Your number would be a 45% drop, a 55% hold. A 45% drop for a film like this that opened that high would be absolutely outstanding. I don't see that. I think it will drop at least the 55% that you said, and the 32 number is close. I'm calling somewhere between 29 and 32.6. Boush is just bitter. He knows that it won't drop that hard, he just won't admit he was wrong.

Yep... I used my calculator on my computer and made an error. I hit 72.5 x .55 (what I was supposed to be taking off) instead of x .45 (what would be left). $32.625 is what I should have put. I'll fix it.

Like I said... The 2 that most everyone said completely sucked (2 Fast, Tokyo Drift) had a 60% drop with bad word of mouth, so I don't see this one going that way, but its also not hitting the 50% drop the other one did.

It seems that all of the one-quadrant films so far have dropped quickly (such as Friday the 13th and Watchmen). Fast and Furious is no exception. I'm sticking to my prediction of a 74% drop.

Also, even films with good reception can drop quickly. See Hellboy 2 (good reception but a 71% second week drop).

Though it does cater to one quadrant more than the others, that would mean the its three predecessors would have dropped that far and I don't see it this time either.

But there were extenuating circumstances for that, as we all know.

Buscemi wrote:

Also, even films with good reception can drop quickly. See Hellboy 2 (good reception but a 71% second week drop).

But Hellboy 2 had TDK in it's 2nd weekend...there is no comperable movie to TDK this weekend.

Friday the 13th is a horror film and it opened on Friday the 13th, obviously it was dropping huge. Watchmen suffered from the fanboy effect and bad word of mouth. 72.5 million is not a one quadrant film. It doesn't fit. there is more to it than just calling it a one quadrant film. I do think Observe and Report will take a lot of its audience and that not too many people will be rushing out to see it twice, which is why I think the drop will be at least 55%. Also its Easter Weekend and the Sunday drop should be steeper than normal. It should hover around 30 million this weekend and end up somewhere in the 160 range.

That sounds about right to me, geez. I had it at around the 120-130 range, but damn.

Looks like Mase is calling for a 26.4 million weekend, a drop of 63% and a second place finish to the 33 million of Hannah Montana. Knew this would drop like a rock, but not quite this hard. I am pleased with this result though.

Pleased with the result? The fucking Hannah Montana movie is number 1.