March 20-22 Tracking (and Happy Birthday, Keyser!!!)

W wrote:A couple of points to add:


Knowing: I think it is underestimated. This movie is more National Treasure than Next or Bangkok. In no way do I think it'll pull in those numbers, but I do think there are similarities and it'll attract some of the same audience. It has been advertised out the wazoo, which can only help. It will have a healthy opening and hold well for at least a couple of weeks.

Fast amd Furious: I have no freaking clue, but if Tokyo Drift can bring in $62.5 M, I don't see how this doesn't go over $90 M. It even had a $24 M OW.

Good to see you around more frequently W.

I was not sure what to think of Knowing. I think it looks cool. BUT Cage basically releases two different movies. The huge ass 100-150 Mill National Treasure / Con Air / Gone in 60 Seconds or the 15-30 million Next / Bangkok / Weatherman movies. Which one will Knowing be is anybody's guess. But I am leaning towards maybe 50-70 Mil total if it is successful.

I want Knowing to succeed not only to improve Cage's batting average, but so that Alex Proyas will be offered directorship of more films. I think he has a lot of talent that is simply not being utilized (I cite Dark City as an example).

But more than that, I want to improve my own batting average. Going back over my "Top Ten Most Anticipated films Jan-Apr", so far it has not been stellar.

10. The Soloist
9. Race to Witch Mountain - saw it, gave it 7/10. It'll probably do well but not extraordinarily so.
8. State of Play
7. Bride Wars - did okay but not great, ended up not even seeing it. Will wait for DVD.
6. Knowing
5. The International - saw it, gave it 9/10. A terrific movie that hugely underwhelmed.
4. Duplicity
3. Push - saw it, gave it 8/10. Another very good movie that underwhelmed.
2. Monsters vs. Aliens
1. Watchmen - saw it, gave it 8/10. Very good for what it was, but again, a financial disappointment.

So that's four of the ten that I've seen, and I've liked all four, but none of them blew me away, and none of them have broken the bank. I fully expect that Duplicity will fit that description, as will Soloist and State of Play. Knowing, for me, would have to break $60 to be considered a surprise hit, and Monsters vs. Aliens had better freakin' break $150, or I will be PISSED!

ComingSoon has the three movies being 1-2-3 at the box office this weekend like this:

1. Knowing (Summit Entertainment) - $19.4 million N/A

2. I Love You, Man (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $18.3 million N/A

3. Duplicity (Universal) - $14.6 million N/A


I think this just reiterates the fact that nobody has any idea what's going to happen.

Any new estimates from Mase?

Box Office Guru has

1. I Love You Man - 18M
2. Duplicity - 16M
3. Knowing - 15M
Race to Witch Mountain - -35%
Watchmen - -55%

Wow.. numbers are all over the place. I don't think i've seen one consistent top 3 from any of the 'big' predictors.

I think it's looking more and more like Knowing will open No.1 with I Love You, Man a close second.

I just can't see that. I Love You Man has been running tv spots much longer than Knowing has and I think it appeals to more people than Knowing. But that's just me.

brockman81 wrote:I just can't see that. I Love You Man has been running tv spots much longer than Knowing has and I think it appeals to more people than Knowing. But that's just me.

It's definitely not just you, I thought I Love You, Man would easily take the weekend, but some of the numbers i've been seeing for Knowing are very high, and it's theater count will help it alot.

Personally i would love another Paul Rudd film to open in top spot, so hopefully you are correct. Besides, there hasn't been an R-rated comedy out for a long time.

Yeah I guess I wasn't thinking about theater count. How the hell did Knowing get that many theaters?

Maybe they are hoping for a lot of people to see Nicolas Cage in his next sci-fi adventure and make 120 Mil. Man I hope not... They will be disappointed when it only brings in 15 Mil OW.

This just in: Knowing is the third widest indie opener of all-time. Though the two highest openers (Scary Movie 4 and Twilight) opened well, the rest of the list is a crapshoot. It's still too hard to tell but I'll go with a $13-14 million opening (about $4,000+ per theatre).

I don't have any number to base this off, only my gut, but I see Knowing as being a bomb, similar to Bangkok Dangerous. I'm going with I Love you Man first at 18M, then Race to Witch Mountain to come in 2nd only down 27% to 17M, Watchmen to hold 3rd with 12.5M, Duplicity for 4th with 10M, and Knowing to come in somewhere between 7-9M for possible 5th. But again I'm basing this off instinct and Bangkok Dangerous.

My predictions are on my blog. The link is down there.

From Steve Mason (http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/19/tracking-3/)

According to him, he's predicting the upset win for I Love You, Man - tracking has shown that Knowing will win the weekend, but there has been a huge I Love You, Man surge in the last few weeks.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 20-22
1. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $21.5M
2. Knowing (Summit) - $20.25M
3. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) - $17.1M
4. Duplicity (Universal) - $14.5M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $9.6M
6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) - $6.35M
7. Taken (Fox) - $5.1M
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $3.8M
9. Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) - $3.45M
10. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $2.35M

I was so wrong on Jonas Brothers I hesitate to try and guess again. But here goes nothing:

Knowing $22
I Love You Man $20
Witch Mountain $18
Duplicity $15

I think theater count is the trump card here. Rotten Tomatoes has ILYM at 76%, Duplicity at 63%, and Knowing at 29%. But Ebert gave Knowing 4 stars (calling it "among the best science-fiction films I've seen,") ILYM 3 1/2 stars, and Duplicity 3 stars. Who knows?

I might go see Knowing, but as of right now, it looks fucking horrible.

Should be a fun weekend for me movie wise. Going to see Sunshine Cleaning today and hopefully Duplicity later this weekend.

I thought the trailer for Knowing was pretty cool and I am interested in seeing it. But like most Nic Cage films, I will see it on DVD. LOL

Whenever I see a Nic Cage film advertised, I always have to say "put the bunny back in the box". Haha...

Knowing is ahead of I Love You Man.

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/very-early-weekend-box-office-1-knowing-2-i-love-you-man-3-duplicity/

Interesting... I wonder could Race to Witch Mountain play the upset and win the weekend? If it only drops 20%, it'd end up with around 20M, that could be enough to place 1st or 2nd.

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/very-early-weekend-box-office-1-knowing-2-i-love-you-man-3-duplicity/

Early Weekend Box Office: #1 'Knowing', #2 'I Love You, Man', #3 'Duplicity' Soft; Julia's Comeback? Audiences Say Go Back

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Here are Friday's North American box office numbers and weekend estimates (order temporarily based on Friday's b.o.):

1. Knowing (Summit) OPENER [3,332 Theaters] Fri $8.8M, Wkd est $25M
2. I Love You, Man (DW/Paramount) OPENER [2,711] Fri $6.2M, Wkd est $17.6M
3. Duplicity (Universal) OPENER [2,575] Fri $4.6M, Wkd est $14.3M
4. Witch Mountain (Disney) Week 1 [3,187] Fri $3.7M (-45%), Wkd est $13.6M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,510] Fri $2M, Wkd est $7.6M
6. Last House (Rogue/Uni) Week 2 [2,403] Fri $1.9M, Wkd est $6.1M
7. Taken (Fox) Week 8 [2,661] Fri $1.3M, Wkd est $4.3M

FRIDAY 10:45 PM: There are many questions waiting to be answered at the North American box office this weekend with 3 newcomers and 1 holdover spoiler at first glance. The top 3 were supposed to run in the $23M-$18M range thanks to great TV ads and marketing prowess. But how will March Madness lower the grosses for DreamWorks / Paramount's well-reviewed laffer I Love You, Man among younger males and females on Date Night? (The R-rated Paul Rudd starrer has been running ahead of Role Models all day.) Can older males and females alone make Summit Entertainment's cheezy actioner Knowing the No. 1 movie even though it stars Nicolas Cage? (The PG-13 pic is playing in 600+ more theaters, and Cage was cast primarily for his overseas appeal.) Have women really been craving Julia Roberts' comeback in the smug thriller Duplicity from Universal. (Or Clive Owen as her leading man, especially when his similar corporate conspiracy movie The International bombed last month.)

By Friday night, it was clear that Knowing would rule the box office Friday and for the weekend. And despite decent reviews, Duplicity's numbers looked soft, for probably only a $14M weekend, when Hollywood and even the studio expected $18+M. Playing the spoiler could be Disney's PG pairing of alien kids with Dwayne Johnson, Race To Witch Mountain, which is screening in 600+ more venues. It's having an unexpectedly good hold because close to 20% of K-12th grade schoolkids are on vacation and may pass Duplicity for No. 3. It's clear from Friday grosses that Robert's toothsome appeal has worn thin. ("If I see that laugh in one more spot for this movie, I may break my TV," one rival studio exec snarked to me.) You have to go back to Julia's 2003 chick flick Mona Lisa Smile to find a comparable underperformer. (Not adjusted for inflation or higher ticket prices, that pic opened to $11.5M for a domestic total of $63.8M. Her hit movies with a long tail at the domestic box office debuted to at least $21.6+M.) And the low-cost I Love You, Man did respectably for an R-rated pic and snagged a Cinemascore of B+. Whereas Duplicity received a C.

BOM: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Knowing $8,950,000
I Love You, Man $6,350,000
Duplicity $4,700,000
Race to Witch Mountain $3,800,000
Watchmen $2,025,000

Ouch for Watchmen and Last House. Coraline only had a 2.8% drop from last Friday .

Watchmen has really been falling hard damn didnt see this coming at all.