March 13-15 tracking

Well, when I read it, I still didn't know whether this movie was coming out in 3 months, or a year, or never so i figured I might as well read the damn thing.

Erm. Point taken.


"Happy now?"
Coming Spring 2012... Watchmen 2: Rorchach's Revenge

When can we let Watchmen go and start talking about Monsters vs Aliens??....because it's going to be huge!!! (or at least my slates are hoping so).......but really, this movie has all the making of being a smash hit...I don't think it will have any direct competition until 17 again comes out...Hannah Montana will draw some of the teenage girls away (or all of them), but I think MvA is going to have great legs. Not to mention they are promoting the hell out of the movie...every channel I watch has the previews on...fuck, I even saw a promotion for it in Office Max the other day, WTF? Anyway, I guess I'm just ranting...Watchmen has come and gone...let us move on...


On a similar note though, when LOTR was released many of the readers (myself included) were very pleased with the final product, but I think that it was an exception to the rule...most times when a book is made into the movie the readers of the book think the movie is crap...and everyone should know that going into the theater...

I think there is no doubt that MvA is going outgross Watchmen. The question is how much.

I think by the end of it's run it will be at 230-240 million, putting it just ahead of what Wall-E finished up at. I think it has more appeal to adults than Wall-E did and that will help it.

And I think you had a rather large rock dropped on your head and obviously aren't thinking clearly, but hey that's just me.

1. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) [3,187 theaters] $6.5M Friday, est $24M wkd
2. (Tied) Watchmen (Warner Bros) [3,611] $5.5M Friday, est $18M wkd
2. (Tied) Last House On The Left (Universal) [2,401] $5.5M Friday, est $15M wkd

Well.. Bad numbers all around if you ask me.. I thought Race would do at least 28 mill. Watchmens drop is ridiculous, 'hemorrhaging audience' is a perfect way to put it Swedgin..

(early DHD numbers)..

I have to admit that I was way wrong on Watchmen, and now I'll have to settle to fight for the middle of the pack in the round 2 and 3 leagues I picked it in. It's weird in a year with shattering box office that an event film doesn't just under perform, but seemingly completely bombs (under 20m second weekend? good grief).

From Steve Mason's twitter
"Only $15.75M for WATCHMEN. Cool movie. Too cool for mainstream audiences. Will struggle to reach $100M. LAST HOUSE ON LEFT should reach $14M"

I'd say I think he's wrong that it won't reach 100m, but everything I've said about this film has been off, so I'll keep my mouth shut.

On another note: Witch Mountain is also under performing, and I only dropped it in half my slates. Damn.

Yeah he also said after Ghost Rider's second weekend that it would not hit $100 million. Watchmen had way too big of an opening weekend not to get to $100 million.

Race to Witch Mountain did good in its own right. They expectations people had for this movie were way too big. The only Disney movie from 2007-now that wasn't in a big franchise/TV series that opened over $30 million was Enchanted. If MvA wasn't coming out, I would say that this would still hit $100 million.

As for MvA, don't predict too high. The box office just isn't doing that well right now. January was big because of the lack of big December movies. That's over now.

Box Office Mojo has 1-2-3 being Race To Witch Mountain, Last House On The Left and Watchmen. Meanwhile, Miss March bombs right out the gate with only $890,000 on opening day. I knew that Fox wasn't fooling anyone with this very amateurish-looking comedy that's been getting awful reviews left and right (one review I read called it the worst film of the year so far).

Box Office Mojo Weekend Estimates:

Top 5 (rounded)
1. Race to Witch Mountain - 25.0m
2. Watchmen - 18.1m
3. Last House on the Left - 14.7m
4. Taken - 6.7m
5. Madea Goes to Jail - 5.1m

PTA
1. Race to Witch Mountain
2. Last House on the Left
3. Under the Sea 3D
4. Watchmen
5. Madea Goes to Jail

I think this is the seventh weekend I have said this, but at Taken.

Race to Witch Mountain did better than The Game Plan, so we shouldn't be disappointed at all. It should hold strongly next weekend with no competition, that is, if adults aren't really going to see this much.

Watchmen is dead, and Jonas Bros is gone. Tyler Perry, Slumdog Millionaire, and Paul Blart look like they still have a little ways to go before closing.

He's Just Not That Into You won't be hitting $100 million, and hopefully Tyler Perry can pull out a little bit more. Hotel for Dogs hit $70 million.

That was a great increase for Race. I think with it being a family movie, and with the only other one being Hotel for Dogs, which opened a while back, Race should have a good hold next week.

Watchmen had a pretty expected huge drop. Doesn't make it any less disappointing for anyone who took it.

J-Man wrote:Box Office Mojo Weekend Estimates:

PTA
1. Race to Witch Mountain
2. Last House on the Left
3. Under the Sea 3D
4. Watchmen
5. Madea Goes to Jail

Sunshine Cleaning's PTA was $53,000 compared to RtWM's $7,800....

Shouldn't that be #1?

With Sunshine Cleaning I was expecting about $10,000 (since the film had spent a year on the shelf) but $53,500? Can you say sleeper hit?

Responding / commenting...

brock, I hear ya, and moreover, I'm largely in agreement. I am predicting MvA to be the hands-down biggest film of the year prior to Wolverine (perhaps even Star Trek, opening a week later), earning somewhere in the neighborhood of $165-$190M. Perhaps more, though I doubt it can eclispe $200M. I also strongly doubt, however, that Monsters can beat out Wall*E... That being said, though, it would not make me blink overmuch to see Monsters vs. Aliens end the year with a higher domestic gross than Disney-Pixar's Up. In fact, I think Up may struggle to wind up among the top three highest-grossing animated films of the year. Remember, we still have Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, virtually guaranteed to bring home $200M+, coming this Summer. (Actually, were I to be COMPLETELY truthful, I'd say there's even an outside chance of Up finishing as low as #5 among this year's animated films... Behind, respectively, Ice Age 3, MvA, Planet 51, and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs.)

...And, yes, someobody really ought to mark that down, since this will be the THIRD Pixar release in a row I've lowballed in my early estimates. And I've changed my mind the previous two times before the title was released. Shrykey, you paying attention? Here's another chance for you to tell me, "I told you so!". [Grin]

If I were a betting man (and, actually, I am), meanwhile, I'd peg Watchmen to end up somewhere in the $125M-$135M range. It's fallen off a f@$%in' cliff, folks, and it ain't holdin' Rorshach's rapelling gun.

I still say Hannah Montana's going to be a solid hit, $100M, $110M, easy. The really awful truth is that Miley may well outdraw Moore. (I mentioned that at work Friday and damn near got lynched, btw.)

Meanwhile, I think May is going to see the debuts of no less than SIX $150M+ films. I haven't researched this, yet, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if May '09 turned out to be one of the biggest months on record, perhaps THE biggest, ever. I am already pegging 2009 to have the biggest Summer of all time, and for this year to be one of the top three, earnings-wise... perhaps even higher.

geez: [Snort!] Play nice.

Barky: Thankee, my friend, but I actually wish I were wrong about Watchmen. After three viewings, two of 'em in IMAX, I still can't quite wrap my hands around this damn film, which normally would intrigue and excite me (I felt much the same way about fairly recent releases Solaris (the remake), Downfall, Sunshine, There Will Be Blood, and Juno). This time, however, it's starting to simply piss me off. Snyder has created a film that manages to be both avant-garde and all too familiar, innovative and mediocre, near-great and disappointing, inspired and rote, faithful and hollow. Watching Watchmen is like listening to Nickelback, admiring a Thomas Kinkade painting or going to the planetarium; you can identify all the effort that went into it, take note of the attention to detail, appreciate all the talent, recognize all the professionalism, identify the expense, and yet be, if not bored, at least only mildly affected, minimally aroused. (Actually, I rather like how I phrased that just now. Those last couple sentences may yet make it into my long-rumored review...)

I didn't get my slate updates into Shryke on-time, so I missed out on both Race and Sunshine, not to mention The Horsemen, which has been a pet project of mine for some months now. In retrospect I may be thankful for being such a perennial procrastinator. Having seen Witch Mountain, I don't foresee all that big a future for the film -- I think $100M may be pushing it, actually, though I won't underestimate the Disney marketing juggernaut -- which is really a shame because there were several really great (or, at least, would-be great) aspects to it. With a little more effort, Witch Mountain could have been a smart, edgy hybrid of Men in Black, Starman, Under Siege, the Bourne films, and about half a dozen Michael Bay titles. (Besides, I'm inclined to think favorably of ANY film that manages to coax self-parodying cameos out of Harlan Ellison AND Whitley Streiber.) Instead, after getting off to a rollicking good start, it piffles into an insensible hodgepodge of alternating extremes of self-important ponderousness and outright CW silliness, marooned in a sort of thematic Bermuda Quadrangle somewhere between Independence Day, Push, The Transporter and The Cat from Outer Space. It's as if three totally separate writing teams were scripting it, in rotating ten-minute increments: the hard-core sf scripters, the Tony Scott wannabes, and the folks whose day jobs consist of writing for Wizards of Waverly Place. My daughter and her friends, none of them older than ten, were incredibly excited to see this film, but spent most of it blinking in mild disbelief if not borderline annoyance, and by its end were only talking about Planet 51, Up and whether seeing Jonas Brothers again would have been a better use of their time.

What a waste. I feel like I walked out of the 21st-Century successor to 1998's Lost in Space: This could have been a hit franchise. Instead, they killed a reasonably decent idea for another generation. Pity.


"Danger, Will Robinson! Race to Witch Mountain is now playing in a galaxy near you!"

Hannah Montana could be a decently-made film (Peter Chelsom is directing and Nicholas Sparks is writing) but I just really couldn't give a damn. The film is strictly for the fangirls and no one else. I'd say about $27 million opening and a multiplier a little over two. Meanwhile, Watchmen should manage a two multiplier and get to $100 million.

As for Up only being the fifth biggest CGI film of the year, I disagree. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs is a great children's book but as for the film, my expectations are little due to the casting of Andy Samberg in the lead. Plus we have yet to see a trailer for the film so I wouldn't be surprised if it were delayed to 2010 (like with Hotel Transylvania, Sony Picture Imageworks' follow-up to this one). On box office, it will probably do either like Open Season or like Space Chimps (also with Samberg).

On Planet 51: even with Dwayne Johnson and those alien dogs that look like the Chestbusters from Alien, independently-made animation just doesn't do that well. But it's got a name cast (Jessica Biel and a few others that I can't think of also star) and a November release date. I'd compare it best to The Tale Of Despereaux or however well that Battle For Terra does.

Actually, I think (Battle for) Terra's prospects are looking up. I doubt it can break $40M, but it's one of only a few films my daughter and her friends have seen previews for that they're really very excited about.

P.S. Don't underestimate the power of the dark side fangirls; they turned Titanic, Mamma Mia! and Twilight into mainstream hits, and have basically financed the entire career of one John Christopher Depp II, Esq.


Promotional image from MemeWorks' upcoming The Tale of Diderot (Christmas 2010)

Battle For Terra reminds me of Titan A.E. (of which I enjoyed and own the DVD). The film already has a small cult following (from its screenings at different film festivals) but I can't see the cult appeal translating to box office success. However, it should outgross Delgo. But then again, anything can outgross Delgo.

A lot of films were added after I posted the BOM estimates, so yes, Sunshine Cleaning would be the huge PTA champ.

A Side note: but weirdly enough, movies that haven't been registering at BOM have been at The Numbers, and last week, according to The Numbers website, Tokyo actually opened in two theaters and not one, so it wasn't as big of a success PTA wise as BOM says (if The Numbers numbers are right, and it looks right, because all of the other tracked numbers are the same, as well as things like Phoebe in Wonderland being tracked there and not on BOM). I'm not saying we should change the result, as this game is built upon trusting the Box Office Mojo numbers, but it's weird how a few theaters are perhaps not being tracked by BOM. Could it be a result of the new IMDB ownership?

Swedgin! wrote:Watching Watchmen is like listening to Nickelback

dude! too far, man.......... too far

Responding...

Battle For Terra reminds me of Titan A.E. (of which I enjoyed and own the DVD).

[Nodding] Decent comparison, Boussh, tho personally I'm hoping more for Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within- or even Treasure Planet-style numbers: $32M (FF) to $38M (Treasure), versus $22.7M for A.E. However, odds are Terra, a would-be cgi Cinderella story from a first-time production company that's been languishing in a vault (the film, not the company, though, really, what's the difference?) for almost two years despite receiving rave reviews from film-festival audiences and critics, will suffer a fate far more similar to such well-intentioned but anemic titles as Arthur and the Invisibles ($15M), The Ten Commandments ($952K) or, as you say, Delgo ($694K). Still, it should be able to outgross Kaena: The Prophecy's genre-worst $8,593, at least (bearing in mind, of course, that Kaena was released onto exactly one screen, ever.)

...I can't see the cult appeal translating to box office success. However, it should outgross Delgo. But then again, anything can outgross Delgo.

Excepting Kaena, naturally.

ETA: I'm a fan of...CERTAIN...elements of A.E., also, and, like you, I own the DVD. The "planet ice" scene is still FANTASTIC, with sound and visual effects to rival The Empire Strikes Back. Another potentially awesome film that just didn't gel, completely. A shame Don Bluth can't be persuaded to bring hisself and Dragon's Lair to Pixar... or, more likely, the other way 'round...

Jay, man...

...[W]eirdly enough, movies that haven't been registering at BOM have been at The Numbers, and last week, according to The Numbers website, Tokyo(!) actually opened in two theaters and not one, so it wasn't as big of a success PTA wise as BOM says (if The Numbers numbers are right...)

The Numbers is generally the first place on the Internet to get "new" figures, but I've noticed they're not always the most reliable. (However, they usually do "catch up" in fairly short order.) I've been keeping a list of potential alterations, upgrades and random unnecessary revisions of our little game to be submitted to Shryke et al later in the year, and this is one of those areas I feel we could really benefit from some additional / supporting information in, week to week. Maybe we consider modifying our Box Office figures by averaging the stats we glean from both sources, when there's a discrepancy...?

Could it be a result of the new IMDb ownership?

[Shrug] Who knows? It's as good an explanation as any. And, btw, on that subject: I don't know what, if anything, might be going on behind the scenes as a result of IMDb's acquisition of BOM, but I for one have yet to see any POSITIVE change. I fully expect BOM to at some point simply go away, its vast database of information folded into the IMDb framework... But, so far at least, I'm not impressed. Could IMDb simply have acquired BOM to eliminate potential competition, d'ya think...?

[D]ude! too far, man.......... too far

Musta touched a nerve, there. Too close to home, maybe...?


Maybe we should send some to the good folks behind IMDb / BOM / M-O-U-S-E

Swedgin! wrote:

[D]ude! too far, man.......... too far

Musta touched a nerve, there. Too close to home, maybe...?

i can't name a single Nickelback song--but i can't imagine anyone honestly comparing Watchmen to such generic, corporate-bland, uninspired drivel...

Still no sign of The Horsemen... maybe tomorrow.

BOM has called Watchmen's second-weekend drop for 67%...

[excerpted from Weekend Report: ‘Witch’ Blasts Off, ‘Watchmen’ Burns Out]

by Brandon Gray
March 15, 2009

Watchmen disintegrated 67 percent to an estimated $18.1 million for $86 million in ten days, trailing all previous superhero movies that debuted in the $50 million range through the same point. For perspective, 300, which Watchmen was oft compared to, fell 54 percent to $32.9 million in its second weekend (for a $129.2 million total), and, among major comic book movies, only Hellboy II: The Golden Army and Hulk had steeper drop-offs. The weekend further cemented Watchmen's status as a movie with much more limited appeal than other superhero pictures, rooted in its non-mainstream source material and its diffuse storyline and marketing. Watchmen's 124 IMAX theaters held a bit better than the rest. They were down 58 percent, accounting for an estimated $2.3 million of the weekend and $9.5 million of the total.

So, who's driving? Snyder? Or Lawrence Gordon?