The Monsters vs. Aliens Prediction Thread

[J.I.]

Man, DreamWorks will do anything to make this movie a huge success. If you haven't heard, there will be a 90-second 3D trailer of Monsters vs. Aliens during the Super Bowl. I mean, they are actually showing commercials for the commercial. And then right after that, there will be a SoBe Lifewater and Monsters vs. Aliens 60-second 3D cross-over commercial. 125-150 million 3D glasses are being ordered for this, which will be in 28,000 retail stores. And whats cool is that even if you don't have 3D glasses for it, you can still see the TV-spot perfectly.

http://www.canmag.com/nw/13149-monsters-vs-aliens-going-big-super-bowl

Considering that the trailer has been getting a great reaction, and in front of Madagascar 2 and Bolt, which combined have made $286 million, and it comes out over Spring Break for most kids, and will be in the higher priced and bigger crowd drawing 3D and IMAX 3D, and doesn't have anything to compete with in its first month other than Hannah Montana, which comes out in its third weekend (and Race to Witch Mountain, but that will be in its third weekend), and has a voice cast that will bring in adults too (like Steven Colbert playing the President), I'm thinking that this movie will be huge. DreamWorks Animation films have been big lately, and they're not letting a March release date stop it from doing what it can do. I'm predicting about $50 million OW, and $160 million total.

Thoughts?

[geezer9687]

I think that sounds just about right J.I.

[undeadmonkey]

I think the final number will be higher, more $190ish

[Buscemi]

$35 million opening
$140 million finish

The opening will be smaller than usual due to the March opening (it would make more sense to open it in June or somewhere in the summer) but it will have good legs.

And is it just me do all the print ads show only B.O.B. rather than all of the monsters? It's especially strange considering than B.O.B. is only a supporting character while Susan seems more like the main monster since the film revolves around her becoming a monster along with the alien invasion.

[J.I.]

I think BOB is supposed to provide most of the humor in the movie, so that would be my guess why he is everywhere.

And Sunday will get a boost on its opening weekend from kids being out of school the entire week.

[JackO]

I think the final number will be higher, more $190ish

I agree with this number.

[silversurfer19]

Bousshh, Horton Hears A Who made more than $150m, so I guarantee Monsters Vs. Aliens will make more than $140m. I'd say $170m seems much closer to its actual figures.

[Buscemi]

I forgot about Horton Hears A Who. I was thinking of Meet The Robinsons when I made my prediction and claimed that March was a bad place to open the film. That opened in March, had a 3-D release and made just $97 million. It probably would have made more sense had they opened it in the summer or Holiday season.

Another thing is that Horton Hears A Who was based upon a classic children's book. Monsters vs. Aliens is based upon a small comic book series that doesn't even appeal to children. It makes more sense to compare Monsters vs. Aliens to Meet The Robinsons (based on a children's book with nowhere near Horton's popularity) because unlike Horton, neither film has the built-in appeal led to it making over $150 million.

I'm sticking to my $140 million prediction unless something better is done (like not focusing the entire ad campaign around a supporting character).

[numbersix_99]

I think its release date is going to harm its BO potential. Plus, from the very start I've always wondered if its title and premise will be a turn off for little girls. I may be wrong, but it seems slightly skewed to a boy audience.

I think I agree more with Bousch's 35 mil opening, and its limit being about 150mil. That said, the line-up for March/April looks pretty bad, but there is the Hannah Montana film coming up shortly afterwards which may divide audiences a bit. Nevertheless, in terms of the FM game, it'll be a top pick (second to Watchmen, if it gets released).

[Keyser Soze]

They are definitely going to need to ramp up the marketing and awareness of this flick if it's going to make anywhere near the dollar figures that have been thrown around here. I've mentioned this flick to no less than 10 people over the holidays, and not one of them had even heard about it. Most of them, based on the title, instantly assumed it was some Summer type Sci-Fi flick that they had no interest in seeing. Now, as soon as I showed them the trailer, they wanted to know when it was coming out. The fact that it is a comic book will have no bearing on its box office take. If every person that read the comic went to see it multiple times, it still wouldn't do Gran Torino numbers.

I'm not trying to bash the film at all. I wish it was opening tomorrow. I do think it will do huge numbers, but I really think they have to do a better job with the awareness for it to appraoch $175 million type numbers.

[numbersix_99]

Isn't there a 3D trailer in the works? I assume the publicity will really kick off in Feb

[Buscemi]

The teaser was shown in 3-D with Bolt.

[undeadmonkey]

They're also going to have a 3d commercial in the Superbowl, That will bring lots of awareness. I think someone mentioned it already.

[geezer9687]

Its 2 months out and we are already seeing advertising for it. I don't remember that for Horton and look what it did. The 3D Super Bowl ad is a great idea. I really think J.I.'s numbers are right on the head for this. I know they are completely different genre's, but if Watchmen is pushed back, there is absolutely no other big movie coming out before it for the entire year. It could make this one a must see. I think it has pretty universal appeal. I don't think it will be in the top 10 of the year though, because 160-170 will not get you into the top 10 this year, in my opinion.

[MisterInformative]

And instead of the normal $2 per-ticket surcharge that most 3D releases have, this one is $5 extra PER TICKET. That will either be a great help to its grosses, or will turn people away in droves.

[Buscemi]

So this so-called "Tru 3D" is really more than just a trade name for REAL-D?

[MisterInformative]

I'm not entirely sure, but I think it is (although it's compatible with REAL-D). I think it's kind of like how Disney says they have a separate Disney Digital 3D, but it works on REAL-D anyway. The decision to increase the surcharge was, if I had to guess, also just a simple profit-driven effort to make money faster.

[Buscemi]

Okay. I was getting the idea that they would be going with a 4-D release (the fourth dimension is similar to something in an amusement park movie like Shrek 4-D or Muppetvision 3*D).

[MisterInformative]

4D would be a cool experience, but aren't some elements of 4D stuff like getting spritzed with water when someone on screen sneezes, and other similar gimmicks? I don't know if it would be practicable to implement outside of a theme park auditorium.

[Buscemi]

It would be pretty expensive and likely possible only in the highest-grossing cinemas but come 2050, it may be the next big thing. Imagine something like Twister or a big disaster movie in 4-D. High-powered stuff.

[J.I.]

So when was that announcement made that the ticket prices would be higher than the prices for other 3D movies?

And by the way, the marketing to kids is great with the preview in front of Madagascar 2 and Bolt. I'm sure the preview will also be in 3D in front of Coraline and Jonas Brothers. And DreamWorks has tons of commercials every time on Nickelodeon, especially now that Paramount and DreamWorks are together. And for adults, everyone will know about the movie after the Super Bowl ad.

[Buscemi]

Though they are together now, DreamWorks is working on a split from Paramount. Just wanted to clarify that.

[transformers2]

I think Monsters Vs Aliens will do 35 mill opening Weekend and 130 in its overall haul

[MisterInformative]

So when was that announcement made that the ticket prices would be higher than the prices for other 3D movies?

We got a corporate-wide email about it shortly after Thanksgiving, I think -- but I also read it online. I can't find an article link for the life of me, however...

Edit: HERE it is, courtesy of Jeffrey Katzenberg via SlashFilm. I knew I saw it somewhere.

http://www.slashfilm.com/2008/12/07/dreamworks-may-start-charging-5-extra-for-3d-movies/

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