January 2009 will make over $1Billion Club

Are you Clairvoyant or was your prediction just so on the mark?

After MLK weekend there's a great chance of that. Underworld 3 comes out next weekend, The Big Oscar movies are expanding wider: Rev. Road, Cur. Case, Frost/Nixon. I think Paul Blart will have a good second weekend after the buzz from it's near 40 mil. 4 day weekend, Gran Torino is holding excellently, My Bloody Valentine will have a typical horror drop but Bride Wars & Defiance should also hold very well in the Top 10. Not to mention Cur. Case & Slumdog cementing a spot in the Top 10 as the Oscar nominations roll out.

Certainly looks possible now. Blart should hold well, Dogs will hold VERY well. Underworld, and Taken can both do well over the next couple weeks I think. Plus Slumdog and the other oscar films will be expanding a lot over the next two weeks which should keep the overall BO up.

Only two days left, and $90 million left. I think it will happen.

maybe but i kinda doubt it, dang kid how did you see this coming? It all looked like crap to me, and actually havent seen anything released this month.

I too must give you credit J.I. I didn't think your prediction had a hope but the very fact that it's going to be very close either way... hats off to you!

I must admit I thought that the December movies would have some form of legs, but this $1 billion was all new movies. I was also predicting the wrong movies to break out (Bride Wars and My Bloody Valentine instead of Gran Torino and Paul Blart).

This was a huge month. Now the question is - Will this momentum be carried into February?

I think it will. Coming up we have He's Just Not that Into You, then Friday the 13th, then Medea Goes to Jail, then Jonas Brothers, then Watchmen, then Race to Witch Mountain, then Duplicity, I Love You Man, Knowing, then Monsters. vs. Aliens, then Fast and Furious, and then Hannah Montana.

Maybe the first two weeks will. But the last two weeks of February look very weak (only four films will be out in those two weeks: a new film in the declining Madea series, Maxim's first attempt at making movies, a 3-D concert film and a reboot of a 1994 video game adaptation). Don't be surprised if things start to look like last August.

Well, February releases have $700m to beat to make a record. And as Bousshh said, I just don't see it. There are not enough films, and the ones that are being released just won't make enough to meet that target. Not That Into You, Push and Pink Panther 2 will probably make no more than $170m combined, Shopaholic, Friday 13th and The International no more than $180m, Tyler Perry and Fired Up no more than $70m and then Jonas Bros and Street Fighter will make no more than $30m in that weekend. That only gives you $450m. I just don't see it.

Predicting The February Opening Weekends:

Pink Panther 2 $26 mil
He's Just Not That Into You $20 mil
Coraline $11 mil
Push $9 mil

Friday the 13th $40 million four-day (Jason is an iconic character and the Leatherface and Michael Myers remakes both managed over $30 million openings)
Confessions Of A Shopaholic $25 four-day
The International $14 million four-day (it could manage Taken numbers but the R rating could hurt it)

Madea Goes To Jail $17 million
Fired Up $4 million

Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (or Blandest Title Ever) $30 million
Street Fighter: The Legend Of Chun-Li $12 million

Latest Headline from Deadline Hollywood Daily: "Record $1 Billion January Box Office -- But Don't Tell SAG!"

The article seems to confirm that, yes, January passed that threshold - and says that the media companies are downplaying it as they are about to re-enter negotiations with SAG (instead of their normal announcing it from rooftops).

Well, the point of this posting was to say congratulation on a good prediction.

I have to say that the recession helped out the box office tremendously. People just want to be entertained in times like these.

congrats JI, look like you were right all along

Buscemi wrote:Maybe the first two weeks will. But the last two weeks of February look very weak (only four films will be out in those two weeks: a new film in the declining Madea series, Maxim's first attempt at making movies, a 3-D concert film and a reboot of a 1994 video game adaptation). Don't be surprised if things start to look like last August.

When is the last time we had a Medea movie (other than Meet the Browns)? Medea's Family Reunion? That opened to $30 million. And that 3D concert film will be big, especially since it will be in just under double what Hannah Montana was in.