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Hold'em or Fold'em? August

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Hold'em or Fold'em? August Empty Hold'em or Fold'em? August

Post by W Thu Aug 06, 2009 1:29 am

I'm giving up on the Bonanza and am just going to throw something different up each week if I have a chance to. Here's my take on some of the bigger films in the August-October leagues. I'll give you should grab and some you should get off your slate as soon as possible. Here we go:

August - October picks

Hold'em (in order)
District 9 Pocket Kings - This is the best pick of the season. Take it on every slate. I have a feeling this will reach blockbuster status. From bus advertising to the great trailer, its advertising is astounding.

Couples Retreat Pocket Queens: This looks hilarious. I think this will be one of those ones that will look better and better the closer and closer you get to it.

Surrogates Pocket Jacks: I have a feeling this one will be a huge film for a medium price. Bruce Willis plus sci-fi plus robots shoud equal a blockbuster and I'm banking on it.

G.I. Joe AK - This will pay off most of the time, but you can't put all of your chips in this basket. I have a feeling it'll hit right at $150 M, but it could easily be as low as $100 M if WOM turns bad.

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs AQ suited: This one doesn't look like an average big budget cartoon. But those big budget cartoons in 3D have never really been what I would call a failure. Coraline is the lowest at $75 M, but its not really the same thing. Bolt is #2 at $114 M, but it doesn't have the Disney name.

I Can Do Bad Pocket Tens: This one will get its numbers, I believe, but not much room for much more than that.

Zombieland Pocket Nines: Looks great, trailer is getting decent buzz from people that I know. Woody looks really funny. This one is a possible breakout.

Time Traveler's Wife Pocket Eights: A hand that can win on its own sometimes, but for the most part, you need a little help. In this case, you need a group of people (middle aged women) to show up that normally do not.
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Fold'em (No particular order):
Paper Heart pocket twos: A film like this always has a small chance to break out, but I don't see this one in that light.

Bandslam 4-5: Probably not playable, but the Twilight trailer will help the gross some.

Taking Woodstock 3-4: Too artsy for the mainstream.

The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard 10-2: It may become a cult hit (10-2 is a horrible hand, but won someone 2 championships and became legendary), but it will do what most cult hits do in the theaters--nothing!

The Informant 5-6: Huh? Why are people high on this one? Do you really think the average person will see this trailer and say, "I gotta see that!"?

Astro Boy 2-7 :What the Hell is an Astro Boy? Sounds like Speed Racer without the hype.

9 8-9: No way this does well. I don't think it looks appealing and neither does the average person.

Fame pocket threes: I don't see what people see in this. It looks like Rent. I don't see what group of people want to see this. Mothers? No. Teens? No. Kids? No. It may be the worst pick this season comparing gross to price.
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Walter Sobchack
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Post by BanksIsDaFuture Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:44 am

I'm starting to believe in The Goods. Trailers are hilarious and R-rated comedies are doing great. Well actually they has only been one so far this summer (The Hangover) and we know how that did. I don't count Funny People because its more of a dramedy and they tried to sell it on the actors alone, not any good gags or story. Bruno - well, Bruno was just too gay. And awful.

I think The Goods can break out to hit $60M-$70M, which for $5 is great.
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Post by Buscemi Thu Aug 06, 2009 12:27 pm

The Goods is another one of those cases in which the studio doesn't know what to do with it. The film has been collecting dust for a while, the actors are mostly cult figures rather than true box office draws (such as Piven and Rhames) and Will Ferrell projects don't seem to do well when he's not on screen. Also, Paramount is wanting to discontinue the Vantage division so you can expect limited ad campaigns for the films that have been delayed for some time (such as this, The Marc Pease Experience and Carriers).

By the way, I saw the (green band) trailer with Bruno and it did the film little justice. All it consisted of was Piven playing a Dane Cook-esque asshole and a lot of anti-Asian humor.
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Post by BanksIsDaFuture Thu Aug 06, 2009 12:38 pm

Um, I see advertising everywhere for this. I'm kinda tired of the Pearl Harbor/Ken Jeong jokes though, seems like the only angle they're selling. Actors don't really matter as long as the shit is funny, see The Hangover.
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Post by W Thu Aug 06, 2009 7:59 pm

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:Um, I see advertising everywhere for this. I'm kinda tired of the Pearl Harbor/Ken Jeong jokes though, seems like the only angle they're selling. Actors don't really matter as long as the shit is funny, see The Hangover.

The Hangover opened well because of the whole "Did you see Mike Tyson singing Phil Collins on that trailer?" thing. It had small drops because of Zach G. I'm telling you, the Goods will be this year's Office Space. $10 M, but good DVD sales for years to come.
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Post by Buscemi Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:26 am

We already got this year's Office Space. It was called Observe and Report.
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