What to expect from District 9?

I'm in a June-August Box Office League and I'm intrigued by this movie. But I have no idea what to expect from it. Don't know how many theaters it's playing to, or really what the plot is about. It's all very viral.

Will it do better than Aliens in the Attic, Time Traveler's Wife or The Perfect Getaway?

With all of the titles in that price range and all the titles coming out that weekend, its a decent bet that one of them are going to break out at least a little bit, though there will probably be at least a couple of flops.

In my opinion, any of those you named could break out and become a decent sized hit as could The Goods and Bandslam, though I doubt it (I was told Bandslam had the first full New Moon trailer and those fans are rabid enough to pay $8-12 just for that). When it gets closer to the end of July we should have a better idea of what all of these are capable of.

This will be this year's Cloverfield. That film's main drawing points were the documentary style and J.J. Abrams. This film's main drawing points are the documentary style and Peter Jackson. And since G.I. Joe is likely going to flop and the other big films will be beginning to drop, it will open the door for films like this one.

I can see a $30 million opening weekend and a $65 million finish.

As for the other August 14th releases, I'll project this like this:

Distict 9 $30 million
Bandslam $13-15 million
The Time Traveler's Wife $8-9 million (it reminds me too much of 2006's flop The Fountain)
The Perfect Getaway $6 million
Ponyo $4.5-5 million (this will be a wide release rather than a limited release according to Disney and producer Frank Marshall)
The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard $3-4 million
Taking Woodstock $2-3 million
Pool Boys less than $1 million

im not really sure how this will fare. Its has an interesting concept i dont know how sucessful it will be.

Umm... G.I. Joe isn't going to flop. Not in my opinion anyways, I could change my mind when it gets closer to opening, but it looks like a $120-150 M type of film to me especially where its placed.

Buscemi wrote:
I can see a $30 million opening weekend and a $65 million finish.

This is absurd. Cloverfield had well over a year of very complicated and intruiging viral marketing, whereas this seems to only started and just has a couple of websites and a cool bench ad in LA. All District 9 will be good for is a fairly high IMDb score, probably the highest of the weekend. If Bandslam does have the first New Moon trailer, expect that to win the weekend. The Goods also has a shot depending on whether it'll have any marketing by then (it def has none right now).

But I still think that this weekend is a non starter and I wouldn't take any movie opening then. I think 1-3 will be the same as the weekend before it (GI Joe, Funny People, Julie & Julia).

Banks i agree with you for the most part. I think the only movie that has a shot to be a decently big hit is Time Travelers Wife is because its a largely sucessful book but im still not even sure about that.

The Holdovers will most likely lead the weekend. G.I Joe will be strong because of its placement. Julie and Julia will also be a hit.

The thing with The Time Traveler's Wife: do sci-fi and romance ever fare well together? Not creatively but financially. The two best examples I can think of are Somewhere In Time and The Fountain. Neither film did well at the box office. Another reason why it won't do well is that it got moved back from December to August. When your film is made to win awards but gets pushed back to a crappy month, it usually means it's not a good film. And it's got Julie and Julia to face, which could be 2009's Mamma Mia.

Also, being based on a best selling novel doesn't always mean a big hit. Look at The Kite Runner. That was a major best seller and it did nothing at the box office.

As for G.I. Joe, the test screenings have gone badly and it was rumored at one point that Stephen Sommers had been fired as a result. I feel these reports will be a blow to the film's hype and the film could be released to disinterest similar to Land Of The Lost back in June. Also, District 9 has Peter Jackson's name attached. The guy who gave us Lord Of The Rings. People are going to flock, especially if G.I. Joe disappoints.

I doubt it. G.I. Joe will do well because its G.I. Joe. Nostalgia factor for males from the age of 3 to 70 will pull enough to pass $100 M. LOTL only had a small age group. Stuff is going to blow up and people are gonna get their asses handed to them, so it'll do well, maybe even franchise-well.

Romantic sci-fi.... Ghost? The Lake House? I mean, really, there aren't enough romance-sci-fi films to say what its going to do.

Mummy 3 got trashed and it was kinda bad and that still made over $100M. That's about what i expect of GI Joe

Ghost really wasn't sci-fi oriented. Supernatural tends to skew more towards horror, W.

Buscemi wrote:Ghost really wasn't sci-fi oriented. Supernatural tends to skew more towards horror, W.

Yep, I had a hard time finding a mainstream, sci-fi, romance...

All I know is, it's going to be the last movie I see before my 40th birthday. Hope it doesn't disappoint. Though anything with PJack's name attached hasn't disappointed me yet...

ETA: Woo-hoo! 900 posts!!!

im not buying the into the hype, i dont see it making more than 50M. Gi Joe will take its audience, and the time travellers wife should flop too. Im more interested in The Goods and Taking Woodstock, but if both have had little or no ads, it seems they are destined for dvd

I still see G.I. Joe flopping since early word of mouth is so bad. Though it could still do $100 million, it's looking more likely that it will perform like Speed Racer and Land Of The Lost.

I see GI Joe more like this year's version of Rush Hour 3 or The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor. Perhaps decent grosses, but just utter crap.

I'm still trying hard to see why GI Joe is gonna be so bad. Joseph Gordon Levitt and Chris Eccleston in the same movie about one of my favourite cartoon/comics should not be as bad as it seems. But the trailer does let it down a bit....

silversurfer19 wrote:I'm still trying hard to see why GI Joe is gonna be so bad. Joseph Gordon Levitt and Chris Eccleston in the same movie about one of my favourite cartoon/comics should not be as bad as it seems. But the trailer does let it down a bit....

You seem to have missed out on Channing Tatum, Sienna Miller, and Dennis Quaid, or seeing any of the trailers.

im actually looking forward to it

I just fear that GI Joe will be more Fantastic Four than Iron Man -- and the filmmakers easily could have taken it more in the Iron Man (which in my view is better) direction.

G.I. Joe will be sheer and utter crap. But, will the average (G.I.) Joe like it and feel it was a decent escape from reality ala Transformers? That will be the difference between a decent sized gross and a great gross.

Anyways on topic (this is a District 9 thread after all) I went to Chicago because I got free tickets to Wrigley and have always wanted to see the field. On most of the busses there they have signs that say "This bus is for HUMANS ONLY - District 9". Pretty cool advertising if you ask me. I have a feeling this one is going to be a surprise to pass blockbuster status on trailers and creative advertising alone.

I think District 9 is going to KICK ASS

I have pretty high hopes for District 9 it looks pretty damn awesome. I am also one of the few that wants to see G.I Joe.

I want to see G.I. Joe. I think it will most likely be crap but I still want to see it.

District 9 looks phenomenal. I hope the movie lives up to how great the trailer is.

Donte77 wrote:I want to see G.I. Joe. I think it will most likely be crap but I still want to see it.

District 9 looks phenomenal. I hope the movie lives up to how great the trailer is.

Concur completely. I get more and more worried for GI Joe everytime I see a clip, but I still hold out hope. Just have to persuade the other half to come with me on this one, she thinks it looks awful....

Very hyped for District 9. Was watching a clip from Comic-Con on the news last night (you know how Kiwis obsess if one of their own is successful) and they were interviewing Peter Jackson about it and then we saw a clip too, looks very promising.