March 27th Tracking

MTC 3/27
-- notfabio, Mar 23, 14:44
Monsters: 48
Haunt: 17
12 Rounds: 6

RS 3/22 Update
-- notfabio, Mar 22, 22:00
MVSA: Mid 40's
HAUNTING: Between 9-11
12 ROUNDS: Between 6-9

Future:
DRAGONBALL: Mid Single Digits (other services are pretty much at STREET FIGHTER range)

17 AGAIN: Between 16-18

FAST AND FURIOUS: Low 40's

OBSERVE AND REPORT: Mid Teens

HANNAH MONTANA: Between 26-29

Looks like MvA is going to be more Horten Hears a Who then Kung Fu Panda.

I don't know if higher ticket prices are factored in to that. But anyway, its doing great on BOM compared to their 2008 films.

i think those numbers are a bit low for Monsters Vs Aliens...i was thinking closer to Kong Fu Panda numbers then Horton Hears a Who. Tracking has been all over the place this year so I guess only time will tell. Im still going to be an optimist and predict low 60's followed next weekend by Fast and Furious in the low 50's. Hopefully the boxoffice can rebound

MvA should at least hit $50.

ComingSoon has The Haunting in Connecticut coming in #2, but I'll think it'll be more like #4, behind Knowing and I Love You, Man.

I believe it will be Number 2 also. The drops on Knowing and I Love You, Man will be steep.

I Love You, Man will not drop steep. Knowing might, but if it also might hold very well. It is still a wild card. It will be very interesting to see if Knowing drops below 15 million. If It gets much lower than that, consider it on its way out fast. I Love You, Man I think will drop only about 20%. It has terrific WOM and last weekend was the opening round of the NCAA tournament which pulled audiences away. There is also no competition for it, so it was going to have great legs anyway. Monsters vs. Aliens was never going to play like Kung Fu Panda, I don't understand how people came up with that. It was always more Horton. I've said all along 50 million opening, 160 finish and I'm sticking with that, it could be lower though. Haunting in Connecticut will need to make about Haunting In Connecticut needs about 16 million to guarantee that 2 spot. I think these three films will huddle around that 14-15 million range, and it will be very close amongst all 3. Will be a fun weekend to watch.

Knowing increased on Tuesday so I think it will hold strongly this weekend. The Haunting in Conneticut will be big because of the PG-13 rating (it's tracking great on MTC). Monsters vs. Aliens is having great marketing and the 3D is getting more buzz than Real-D ever has, so that's a plus.

EDIT: And nickb, the last three weekends in a row the big opener disappointed because people were predicting too high. And last time, people's predictions were boosted for Race to Witch Mountain after Jonas and Watchmen bombed because "hopefully the box office will rebound." Don't let hope guide your box office predictions.

yes well I am very well aware that both MvA and Fast & Furious could both end up in the mid 40's, I still dont think it hurts to hope for bigger grosses.

Can anyone check Mase's website to see if he has preliminary estimates? I can't get into that site from my workplace.

Nothing yet shryke

I have been predicting $50 million for this all along, but now I feel the need to raise my prediction. First of all, it has been announced that this movie will be in 4,104 theaters, even though the studio was estimating 3,500. Also, around 2000 theaters will be showing the movie in 3D, the likes of which we have never seen. For instance, Bolt was only in about 850 3D theaters. Plus this is in over 100 IMAX 3D locations, and the 3D has been getting more hype than we've seen for a recent 3D movie. The advertising is showing off the visuals, which will definately help, Race to Witch Mountain isn't doing as well as expected, tracking is high, Spring break, good reviews, etc.

$55-60 million opening

1 - Monsters vs. Aliens - $59 mill

2 - Knowing - $14 mill

3 - Haunting in Connecticut - $13 mill

4 - I Love You Man - $11 mill

5 - Duplicity - $6 mill

From Mase:

FINAL BOX OFFICE FORECAST FOR MARCH 27-29
1. NEW - Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $60.64M
2. NEW - The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) - $14.6M
3. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $12M4. Knowing (Summit) - $11.8M
5. Duplicity (Universal) - $9.67M
6. NEW - 12 Rounds (Fox) - $8.1M
7. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) - $7.14M
8. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $2.58M
9. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) - $2.56M
10. Taken (Fox) - $1.94M

http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/26/finaltracking-3/

60million? Way higher than I would have expected. That will probably lead to Kung Fu Panda summer like numbers. I may have picked it in a few more leagues than I already have had I logged on and read that yesterday. Oh well.

No it won't have nearly as good legs because the weekdays won't be anywhere near Kung Fu Panda's.

However, spring break is approaching...

60 Mill is a little high for Monsters but it should do 55.

DHD numbers:http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/wkd-prediction-monsters-vs-aliens-50m/

1. Monsters vs Aliens (DWA/Par) OPENER, Fri $16.5M [4,104], Wkd $57M
2. Haunting in Connecticut (LG) OPENER, Fri $8.5M [2,732], Wkd $20M
3. Knowing (Summit) Week 2, Fri $4.7M (-47%) [3,337], Wkd $14M, Cume $45.5M
4. I Love You Man (Par) Week 2, Fri $4M (-33%) [2,717], Wkd $12M, Cume $36.4M
5. Duplicity (Uni) Week 2, Fri $2.5M (-50%) [2,579], Wkd $7.5M, Cume $26M
6. 12 Rounds (WWE/Fox) OPENER, Fri $2M [2,331], Wkd $5.5M
7. Witch Mountain (Dis) Week 3, Fri $1.5M [3,268], Wkd $5M, Cume $53M
8. Taken (Fox) Week 9, Fri $875K [1,961], Wkd $2.5M, Cume $137M
9. Last House (Rogue/Uni) Week 3, Fri $850K, Wkd $2.5M, Cume $28.3M
10. Watchmen (WB) Week 4, Fri $825K [2,010], Wkd $2.7M, Cume $103.3M

Mason's numbers: http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/27/estimates3-27/

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $16M, $3,899 PTA, $16M cume
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) - $8M, $2,928 PTA, $8M cume
3. Knowing (Summit) - $4.8M, $1,438 PTA, $36.31M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4M, $1,472 PTA, $28.4M cume
5. Duplicity (Universal) - $2.2M, $853 PTA, $20.28M cume
6. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) - $1.9M, $815 PTA, $1.9M cume
7. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) - $1.8M, $551 PTA, $49.45M cume
8. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) - $800,000, $356 PTA, $26.24M cume
9. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $725,000, $361 PTA, $101.26M cume
10. Taken (Fox) - $650,000, $331 PTA, $134.02M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $56M, $13,645 PTA, $56M cume
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) - $19.2M, $7,028 PTA, $19.2M cume
3. Knowing (Summit) - $14.4M, $4,315 PTA, $45.91M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $12.2M, $4,490 PTA, $36.6M cume
5. Duplicity (Universal) - $7.26M, $2,815 PTA, $25.34M cume
6. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) - $6.21M, $1,900 PTA, $53.86M cume
7. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) - $5.32M, $2,282 PTA, $5.32M cume
8. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) - $2.48M, $1,102 PTA, $28.32M cume
9. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $2.46M, $1,226 PTA, $103M cume
10. Taken (Fox) - $2.08M, $1,061 PTA, $136.45M cume

Based on this as well as other data, I can announce who is likely to win the Regulars leagues for January:

Ultimate - "We'll Be Back" - brockman81
Box Office - "Oh Nine and Counting" - geezer9687

The Haunting in Connecticut is doing great. Also MvA is challenging Kung Fu Panda for the bigger opening weekend which is great. I think it will have a big Saturday rise, but I bet that the Kids Choice Awards could stop that just a bit. With Fast and Furious coming next weekend, the big box office is back.

I can see The Haunting In Connecticut dropping similar to Friday the 13th if the numbers are that good on opening weekend. People will realize that the basic plot is a ripoff of The Amityville Horror and stop going to see it.

i am kind of shocked that The Haunting In Connecicut is doing so well it looks like shit and i dont know a single person that wants to see it i am surpised to say the least.

I actually think The Haunting in Connecticut looks pretty decent. It doesn't look nearly as good as some of the other horror films we've seen so far this year, but there's absolutely no way in hell that it could possibly be any worse than The Haunting of Molly Hartley.

DHD: http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/wkd-prediction-monsters-vs-aliens-50m/

1. Monsters vs Aliens (DWA/Par) OPENER, Sat $27.7M [4,104], Wkd $60+M
2. Haunting in Connecticut (LG) OPENER, Sat $9.2M [2,732], Wkd $23M
3. Knowing (Summit) Week 2, Fri $4.7M (-47%) [3,337], Wkd $14M, Cume $45.5M
4. I Love You Man (Par) Week 2, Fri $4M (-33%) [2,717], Wkd $12M, Cume $36.4M
5. Duplicity (Uni) Week 2, Fri $2.3M (-51%) [2,579], Wkd $7.3M, Cume $25.4M
6. 12 Rounds (WWE/Fox) OPENER, Fri $2M [2,331], Wkd $5.5M
7. Witch Mountain (Dis) Week 3, Fri $1.5M [3,268], Wkd $5M, Cume $53M
8. Taken (Fox) Week 9, Fri $875K [1,961], Wkd $2.5M, Cume $137M
9. Last House (Rogue/Uni) Week 3, Fri $850K, Wkd $2.5M, Cume $28.3M
10. Watchmen (WB) Week 4, Fri $825K [2,010], Wkd $2.7M, Cume $103.3M

Wow, a $20+ OW for Haunting in Connecticut. I did not see that coming, but I do believe I picked it as a last resort in some leagues, so I'm happy about that.

And I agree with Boush, HiC will have a HUGE dropoff since Fast & F4rious will be taking almost all of its audience away next weekend.

I just hope my theater finally gets Sunshine Cleaning next week.