March 13-15 tracking

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March 13-15 tracking

Post by J.I. on Wed Mar 11, 2009 5:15 am

Sorry JackO, but I wanted to put this up because of the extreme differences in tracking. I've long been saying that MTC being way higher than RS means it will break out, and the other way around is a flop. Well,

RS:
Race to Witch Mountain 36-39
Last House on the Left 9-11
Miss March 3

MTC:
Race to Witch Mountain 25
Last House on the Left 17
Miss March 4

I don't think that RtWM will flop, however. I think it will do better than what tracking implies, but what I'm saying is that tracking implies it to get around $27 million. Last House on the Left looks like it should break $20 million.


Last edited by J.I. on Wed Mar 11, 2009 6:39 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by JackO on Wed Mar 11, 2009 5:47 am

Thanks J.I. I don't mind. Anyways, I am happy that I had already started to revise expectations of Race to Witch Mountain down. I think best case is Gameplan-ish numbers. Oh yeah, and Last House is looking real good right now. It might even win the weekend . . .


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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Wed Mar 11, 2009 5:56 am

Shouldn't this be "MARCH 13-15 numbers"? Just want to avoid the inevitable confusion...

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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by J.I. on Wed Mar 11, 2009 6:40 am

pale drunken Wow that was stupid. I'm stuck in last month.
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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed Mar 11, 2009 8:12 am

Last House on The Left is looking good, I don't know if it can win the weekend though. It all depends on how much Watchmen will drop. I do think there is a dryspell of kid-friendly films right now, so I'm leaning towards RtWM to win the weekend.

Wow, Miss March is going to do worse than Street Fighter? Surprising.
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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by Buscemi on Wed Mar 11, 2009 8:41 am

I think that Miss March will do $2 million tops. Sex Drive was basically the same film with more familiar names and that only opened to $4 million. The film also reminds me of The Rocker, which only opened to $2.5 million and was from the same Fox Atomic label that Fox is trying to forget even existed due to the number of flops that they released.

Also, does anyone even watch The Whitest Kids U Know and did they really need their own movie? You know, in the same way that The Lonely Island didn't need a movie but somehow got one.

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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Wed Mar 11, 2009 9:35 am

The Lonely Island needs to get a 12 movie deal.

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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by becs on Wed Mar 11, 2009 1:54 pm

The Lonely Island has some pretty questionable skits that they've done, but with more production $$ behind them from SNL they have proven themselves big time in my opinion. I hadn't heard about the movie deal but I think it should be fun and if nothing else they basically always think outside the box and are sure to deliver a unique concept (anyone see the "white power" skit where they all get addicted to teeth whitening... hilarious albeit a little long).
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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Wed Mar 11, 2009 11:26 pm

I still don't know why Phoebe in Wonderland didn't appear on BOM's weekend list. According to that film's website, it debuted in roughly a dozen theaters this past weekend (mostly in NY, CA or TX). I even called one of those theaters, and it IS playing, according to the recording I listened to. Maybe it just didn't report. Hopefully there will be some numbers next week. If not, I'll drop it from the list.

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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by Buscemi on Wed Mar 11, 2009 11:46 pm

I believe that the numbers weren't reported because the distributor (ThinkFilm) went bust a few months back and like the Yari Film Group, they are probably not reporting totals since there are no people to gather them.

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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Wed Mar 11, 2009 11:54 pm

Ah. That makes sense. If that is the case, then I'll just drop it.

But didn't you say that The Horsemen had also opened in a few places, even though sources say it won't be opening until THIS week?

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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by Buscemi on Thu Mar 12, 2009 12:11 am

Yes, The Horsemen did open in a few places. For example, check the Wehrenberg Theatres website and you'll see a number of (at least nine) St. Louis theatres running the film right now. It could be only a test run but it is running at the moment.

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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by J.I. on Thu Mar 12, 2009 5:26 am

In other news Coraline is coming back to 3D theaters this weekend (although most are having it share a screen with Jonas its still an improvement.) Race to Witch Mountain will still make it drop some though.
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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by mfrendo on Thu Mar 12, 2009 8:06 am

You just made me happy, J.I.

I LOVED Coraline...saw it twice in fact...
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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by JackO on Thu Mar 12, 2009 10:31 am

Mason's numbers

http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/11/final-tracking-2/

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 13-15
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) - $22.75M
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $22.1M
3. NEW - The Last House on the Left (Universal) - $18.2M
4. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail (Lionsgate) - $5.7M
5. Taken (Fox) - $5.23M
6. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) - $5.13M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $5.07M
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $2.59M
9. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $2.08M
10. Coraline (Focus) - $2.07M

I agree.
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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by NSpan on Thu Mar 12, 2009 10:51 am

JackO wrote:FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 13-15
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) - $22.75M
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $22.1M
wow, i didn't realize it would be so close for Watchmen.. everybody go see it again

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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Thu Mar 12, 2009 11:22 am

JackO wrote:Mason's numbers

http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/11/final-tracking-2/

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 13-15
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) - $22.75M
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $22.1M
3. NEW - The Last House on the Left (Universal) - $18.2M
4. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail (Lionsgate) - $5.7M
5. Taken (Fox) - $5.23M
6. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) - $5.13M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $5.07M
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $2.59M
9. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $2.08M
10. Coraline (Focus) - $2.07M

I agree.

I think RtWM might be a little higher, but these look pretty accurate.
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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by Buscemi on Thu Mar 12, 2009 11:30 am

Race To Witch Mountain will be higher (much higher) and Miss March will be lower (much lower), but everything else looks right.

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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by J.I. on Fri Mar 13, 2009 4:15 am

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) - $22.75M
I think RtWM might be a little higher, but these look pretty accurate.
Way to understate things, Banks.
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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by Swedgin! on Fri Mar 13, 2009 9:32 am

Well now. Last Sunday -- before Watchmen's final opening-weekend numbers were even released -- I posted the following to the "Steve Mason" thread:

No matter its final opening-weekend numbers, if Watchmen manages to exceed $22M in its second weekend, I will be very, very surprised... I shouldn't at all be surprised to see Watchmen drop substantially -- even massively -- in its next several weeks in release... I'm going to lowball it here, and predict that Watchmen will struggle to top $140M, and may actually wind up in the mid-$130s... I'll give that disturbing possibility [that it will suffer a "Hellboy II-esque 70% drop in Watchmen's second weekend, all but condemning the film to the low $100Ms"] one chance in three.
...Then, on Monday, I reiterated:

...I'm still going to forecast a fairly brutal plunge for Watchmen in its second weekend: 67% or thereabouts, comparable to Dungeons & Dragons, X-Men 3, Red Planet, Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within and Cloverfield, five other genre films...that failed to appeal to the mainstream theatrical-release consumer. An American-economy-sized cliff-dive of THAT magnitude, indicating an approximate $18.5M haul in the film's second weekend, would substantially handicap Watchmen's long-term forecast, perhaps stalling the adaptation short of $115M. Again, I give this possibility one chance in three.

...Looks like I could be on the money. All week long, Watchmen's been hemorrhaging audience... And, also like I predicted, it's cratered in foreign markets...

[excerpted from BOM:]

Around the World Roundup: ‘Watchmen’ Washes Out
by Conor Bresnan
March 11, 2009

Watchmen failed to entice an international audience to match its huge marketing blitz, extremely wide release and hype as an intended blockbuster, meeting a similar fate as Speed Racer, Max Payne and Body of Lies. In the recent past, domestic duds like The Golden Compass and Poseidon would usually hit their expected grosses overseas, but that's been a tall order lately.

Leading the weekend with a $26.6 million debut from 44 markets Watchmen was low compared to other superhero movies, which generally have smaller overseas totals than domestic. Back in June, The Incredible Hulk grabbed $30.8 million out of the gate from 38 markets and it ultimately fell short of its domestic haul. Watchmen opened at a difficult point on the calendar when local productions tend to dominate, and it lacked the name recognition of a sequel or famous comic book in most parts of the world to overcome the competition. 300 faced a similar situation two years ago, but benefitted from a staggered release schedule to optimize each territory.

Breaking the weekend down, Watchmen performed best in the United Kingdom, where it led with $4.5 million, but that was much worse than The Incredible Hulk's debut and less than half of 300's. Elsewhere, Watchmen mostly ranked second or third in each market. In France, it logged a disappointing $2.5 million, while, in Germany, it recorded a mere third-place $2 million. It squeezed out a win in South Korea, though with a poor $1.4 million start. Even action-oriented Southeast Asia was indifferent to Watchmen. Singapore was its top draw in that region with just $371,157. Latin America, another region favorable to action pictures, was off as well. Watchmen bagged only $790,771 in Brazil and $732,969 in Mexico. Next up are Greece and Hong Kong this weekend and then only Scandinavia, Japan and a few smaller markets remain on the movie's schedule.

...In Germany, [Gran Torino's] near $1 million start was decent but ranked fifth, while, in Spain, its $2.7 million debut topped fellow openers Bedtime Stories and Watchmen.

...Rising to fourth place with an 11-territory expansion, Marley and Me grossed $8.3 million from 30 markets for a $33 million total. In Germany, the comedy opened ahead of Watchmen and dethroned The Reader with $3 million from 546 screens.

I mean, dude. Watchmen gets killed by Marley & Me? Sure, it's Germany, but, I mean, come on. I've been to Germany. They EAT dogs over there, they don't cry over 'em.


Marley & Sashimi
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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by NSpan on Fri Mar 13, 2009 10:26 am

edit:


Last edited by NSpan on Fri Mar 13, 2009 11:19 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Fri Mar 13, 2009 10:28 am

I don't even like dogs, but damn Swedgin, that picture did not sit well with me Sad
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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by Swedgin! on Fri Mar 13, 2009 7:32 pm

Oh, Bank', so solly to heaw tha'. You twy having wasabi wi' Marley, it make taste goo'! Eat up, eat up, ha' mo' sake, you like, make aww bettew, you see. Swedgin! take goo' care you. You like. You come back soon.


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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Fri Mar 13, 2009 7:44 pm

I saw Watchmen again yesterday. It was 3:55 in the afternoon at a not so popular theater, but the theater was empty. It was me, my brother, and two other people that showed up while the opening credit sequence was running. I was hoping it was just the two of us, because I love having the whole theater. Then I can bitch about everything that was wrong without anyone caring. It's still an 8 out of 10 for me.

I have decided I'm never reading a book before I see the movie based on this experience. It completely ruins my ability to judge the film just based on its own merits. I hate it.


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Re: March 13-15 tracking

Post by Swedgin! on Fri Mar 13, 2009 7:54 pm

Good policy, geez. I recommended that everyone I knew who wanted to see Watchmen, but HADN'T yet read the comic / graphic novel before this year, WAIT until after seeing the film to pick up a copy. Not that anyone listened, but, hey, I tried, right?


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