SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 3/20: I Love You Man, Duplicity, Knowing

Well, the opening weekend for the most hyped movie of the last six months has come and gone, and while some would say that a better-than-$50-million opening weekend could hardly be called a failure, most would say that it was not the rousing success that most hoped it would be. Just two weeks ago, I said that Watchmen would be the first film of 2009 to top $150 million, but now it looks like it’ll take a lot of legs to get there. (And besides which, Paul Blart: Mall Cop looks like it might get there first, receiving yet another Top 5 point in the movie’s EIGHTH week of release! Ye gods, who the hell could have predicted that?!)

So for those of you playing the March leagues, either you’ve already burned more than one-third of your budget, or you’re hoping that the May blockbusters will pick you up, or you’re hoping that a bunch of mid-range titles will outperform a couple of potential blockbusters in the long run. Well, I’ve got no less than three of those mid-range films to talk about today, and they all come out on the weekend of March 20th.

The first is I Love You, Man (R), an adult comedy from Paramount/DreamWorks starring up-and-coming comedic actor Paul Rudd (Knocked Up, Role Models), as Peter Klaven, a guy who has just proposed to his long-time girlfriend (Rashida Jones). But as they begin to plan their wedding, Peter realizes that he really has no “guy” friends in his life, and therefore has no one to serve as his best man. Determined to find someone to fill the position, he goes out on a series of “man-dates”, hoping to find a best man and best friend at the same time.

Eventually, he encounters Sydney Fife (Jason Segel, who co-starred with Rudd in last year’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall), and the two seem to hit it off. Unfortunately, his fiancé realizes that the closer Peter seems to get to Sydney, the further away he seems to be drifting from her. I Love You, Man is directed by John Hamburg, who is another member of the Judd Apatow encampment, having worked with him on his television show Undeclared. The supporting cast is rounded out by Jaime Pressly, Andy Samberg, J.K. Simmons, Jon Favreau and, starring as himself, Lou Ferrigno. (Just don’t call him “Hulk”, he apparently doesn’t like that. Grin.)

R-rated comedies are often a hard sell, but that doesn’t look to be the case here. Anything with Judd Apatow’s name attached to it seems to at least find modest success, and both Rudd and Segel are coming off surprise hits from last year, so I would honestly be surprised if this film flopped.

I Love You, Man will cost you $16 in both the March Ultimate and Box Office leagues, and if it can top $25 million in its first three days, it has an excellent chance of winning the weekend (unless Race to Witch Mountain just does gonzo numbers). There are quite a few PTA hopefuls also coming out this weekend, such as The Great Buck Howard and Sin Nombre (Sex Positive, it would seem, has been bumped to an unspecified summer date), but it’s possible that a couple or three points could be garnered here. I don’t know if I Love You, Man will flirt with an 8.0 User Rating the way Sarah Marshall did, but it shouldn’t let you down in this category either. I imagine around $70 million for this title before summer hits (or, at least, till Seth Rogen's Observe and Report comes a-calling three weeks later). Go for it.

The next film is Duplicity (PG-13), a film that I have quite been looking forward to, not only for the slick, conniving, Ocean’s Eleven feel that I got from the trailer, but also because it’s being directed by Tony Gilroy, who, if you recall, did quite well his last time out. Michael Clayton, which came out in late 2006, was not only a critical success for George Clooney, but it also copped two Oscar nominations for acting: Tom Wilkinson for Supporting Actor (who lost), and Tilda Swinton for Supporting Actress (who won).

And it just so happens that Wilkinson is back in Duplicity as well, as the CEO of a major pharmaceutical corporation that is currently in the middle of a cold war with a rival corporation (whose CEO is played by Paul Giamatti). The two are currently waging a secret war with each other trying to procure a formula that will, for the company that patents it, effectively put the other out of business. To that end, they each hire their own “expert”, a seasoned pro in the realm of espionage to help them do just that.

Enter former CIA operative Claire Stenwick (Julia Roberts) and former MI6 agent Ray Koval (Clive Owen), who become the go-to people for their respective CEO’s. However, unbeknownst to either bigwig, they are actually working together, trying to score the biggest payoffs for themselves while exploring their burgeoning romantic relationship. The question is, can either of them REALLY put any trust in the other, in a game where double-crosses, treachery and, well, duplicity are the norm?

Well I, for one, don’t need any more convincing. This director, with THIS cast, has more than enough allure to draw me to the theater on its opening weekend. The question is, how many people will be joining me? I’m hoping it’s a lot. From the trailer, it is not an action-thriller like The International, the R-rated Owen vehicle that vastly underperformed a month ago. Seduction and subterfuge seem to be the weapons of choice rather than machine guns, and the PG-13 rating indicate that it’s tame enough to be enjoyed for what it is.

However, I can’t help but be leery about Duplicity’s chances. Despite its rating and cast, and despite the fact that it’s really the only serious adult drama until State of Play on April 17th, I honestly don’t see this film opening much higher than $20 million at the absolute most, and, if Universal doesn’t market it well, it could open at only $12 million or so. (Remember, despite Michael Clayton's kudos, it opened in October and didn’t exactly set the ticket counters on fire either.) It will have a tough time coming in any higher than #3, and will spend no more than one additional week in the Top 5.

Is $13 a good deal in Ultimate? Well, for four or five Top 5 points, a couple of PTA, a fair-to-good User rating and possibly $50 million in receipts, I say no. It’ll run you the same price in Box Office leagues, and should you decide to put this on your roster, I would pay CLOSE attention to tracking in the days leading up to its release. That’s really the best advice I can give you, other than to go see this movie simply because you want to. There’s nothing like a good complicated espionage drama, with a touch of comedy, to really stimulate one’s synapses in the middle of a plethora of films for which a brain is optional. (“Turns out you don’t need one!”)

I, Robot was one of my very favorite films of 2004. I loved the way that Will Smith played the lead character, taking the smart-ass cowboy qualities of his earlier films and infusing them with a great deal of depth and emotion. The story was well told, and I especially appreciated the way the film was given a rather ambiguous ending.

Of course, it wasn’t until much, MUCH later that I found out that the director, Alex Proyas, had been at loggerheads with 20th Century Fox pretty much from start to finish, and was surprised to find out that he hated the final product, given that it went in a completely different direction that he wanted. Proyas also vowed not only to never work with Fox again, but would seriously consider not doing any project unless he was given a certain level of autonomy. Given that he was the man behind the simply brilliant (and, in my opinion, highly undervalued) 1998 film Dark City, I say, let him have it.

And it is not one of the major studios, but rather, Summit Entertainment that will be distributing Proyas’s latest project, Knowing (PG-13), I expect two distinct things. The first is a dark, stirring piece of cinema, with terrific special effects and better-than-average performances from its lead actors. If you’ve seen the footage of the plane and train crashes in the trailer, you’ll know that at least the former is true, but given that the top bill in this film is Nicolas Cage, one never knows what to expect.

I mean, seriously; the man has quite a few enormous box office successes under his belt: Face/Off, The Rock, Ghost Rider and the National Treasure movies spring to mind almost immediately. However, for every hit he puts out, he seems to generate at least two others that range from “dismal failure” to “just breaking even”, such as Windtalkers, Matchstick Men, Lord of War, The Weather Man, The Ant Bully, The Wicker Man, Next and Bangkok Dangerous. And yet, his career goes merrily on, seemingly untouched by the knock that he just doesn’t have what it takes to lead a small-budget film to success anymore.

In this film, Cage plays a college Professor named John Koestler, who gets an intriguing mathematical puzzle handed to him by his son; a sheet of numbers, written by a grade-schooler, that had been buried in a time capsule fifty years earlier. Upon doing some research, he determines that the numbers represent the date and fatality count of every major disaster the Earth has faced over the last half-century, including a few that haven’t happened yet… and the last set of numbers seems to indicate a disaster on a global scale.

Don’t get me wrong, I still like Nicolas Cage, and I’m almost always entertained by his movies (even the bad ones… heck, especially the bad ones), and I expect no less from Knowing. But its box office success seems predicated on a few factors, which brings me to the second thing that I expect from this film – a comparatively small theater count. I mean, this isn’t exactly Twilight we’re talking about here; 2,500 screens is about the max that I would expect, and that’s optimistic.

Good word-of-mouth and a respectable ad campaign (which I’ve certainly witnessed in the last few weeks) could definitely improve Knowing’s chances, and it will need such a boost to top Duplicity in its first weekend (or even Watchmen’s third, for that matter). Best scenario, Top 5 points and PTA are a crap-shoot. The User Rating will be respectable, and my gut tells me that $40 million is the absolute most that this film will do. For $9 in Ultimate ($11 in Box Office), I wonder if it’s worth it. Just like Duplicity, it looks like a terrific film, but a terrific choice for your studio? I have my doubts.

My predictions for the weekend of March 20-22, 2009:

1. I Love You, Man - $27 million
2. Race to Witch Mountain - $23 million
3. Duplicity - $17 million
4. Knowing - $15 million
5. Watchmen - $14 million


Well, that will do it for this week. Next week, I’ll close out March with three more films, set to go on the 27th: 12 Rounds, an actioner from the producer of Die Hard 2 and starring former wrestler John Cena as a New Orleans cop who must jump through a bad guy’s perilous hoops in order to save his girlfriend’s life; The Haunting in Connecticut, a horror film starring Virginia Madsen supposedly based on true events; and Monsters vs. Aliens, the latest DreamWorks animated titan starring Seth Rogen, Reese Witherspoon and Hugh Laurie as several of a platoon of “monsters” who are called into action when an armada of unfriendly aliens attempts to take over the planet. This will be HUGE, folks.

Later!

I actually think that Duplicity will be bigger than I Love You, Man. I Love You, Man is not an Apatow film (it just looks likes one) and the advertising really hasn't been that great (the posters tell you nothing about the film and the trailers seem to contain the curse of Andy Samberg that caused audiences to avoid Hot Rod and Space Chimps). Meanwhile the Duplicity advertising seems to be better and even though Julia Roberts seems like a painful miscasting, the film might draw its audience since there's nothing like it for quite some time.

I give the advantage to Duplicity.

I'll have to respectfully disagree. Duplicity looks like a movie I've seen before...like 20 times. Same old shit, just another movie. Whereas I Love You Man's storyline doesn't look like it's been done before. I think it will surprise some people. It plays to both men and women. I'll be drawn to it for it's R rated comedy(looks similar to Forgetting Sara Marshall and Super Bad) while my fiance will be drawn to it b/c it's about someone gettting married/mushy shit that they'll throw in there. Also, it seems to me like I've seen about 5 different trailers for I Love You Man, while I keep seeing the same one over and over and over and over for Duplicity. I don't think it bodes well for that movie, like they're only showing the good parts in the preview. Julia Roberts is washed up and Clive Owen obviously (The International) can't carry his own movie. Just my opinion, but I'm sticking to it. If I'm wrong feel free to whip me like a red headed stepchild.

I seriously doubt Space Chimps flopped because of samberg

I am getting a serious 'Role Models' vibe out of 'I Love You, Man'. It's got a great cast and not too much R-rated comedy about at the same time. I think it will open first with about 25M on it's way to around 65-70M.

Duplicity on the other hand looks like a stick-to-the-formula-with-a-twist movie. It's trailer is 'meh' at best and i doubt too many people will be convinced by the casting. I think an 18M OW on it's way to roughly 50M.

undeadmonkey wrote:I seriously doubt Space Chimps flopped because of samberg

Sayeth the monkey....

I Love You Man will win the weekend probably, but I personally want to see all three movies.

I'll probably see Duplicity that weekend. Julia Roberts is my mother's favorite actress.

I Love You, Man looks great--it will do well

I don't think 'bromance' has taken the US culture by storm as much as this film would lead us to believe. Plus nothing against Rashida Jones, but she's no Julia Roberts. I mean this is her first big opening. I'll go with experience and credibility rather then youthful exuberance.