Jan 16th Weekend Estimates.. HOLY SHIZNIT!

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $9.5M, $3,022 PTA, $9.5M cume
2. NEW – Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $9M, $5,495 PTA, $9M cume
3. NEW - My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $7.5M, $2,960 PTA, $7.5M cume
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $6.5M, $2,187, $57.49M cume
5. NEW – Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.7M, $1,437 PTA, $4.7M cume
6. Bride Wars (Fox) - $3.55M, $1,100 PTA, $29.37M cume
7. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $2.9M, $1,621 PTA, $3.24M cume
8. Marley & Me (Fox) - $2.3M, $779 PTA, $128.7M cume
9. The Unborn (Rogue) - $2.2M, $933 PTA, $25.43M cume
10. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $1.7M, $765 PTA, $98.72M cume
11. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $1.65M, $630 PTA, $100.55M cume
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.3M, $2,234 PTA, $38.13M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $36M, $11,450 PTA, $36M cume
2. NEW – Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $29M, $17,705 PTA, $29M cume
3. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $26.65M, $8,967, $77.64M cume
4. NEW – Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $26.32M, $8,046 PTA, $26.32M cume
5. NEW - My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $22.5M, $8,879 PTA, $22.5M cume
6. Bride Wars (Fox) - $14.91, $4,619 PTA, $40.73M cume
7. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $12.47M, $6,970 PTA, $12.81M cume
8. Marley & Me (Fox) - $10.58M, $3,584 PTA, $136.98M cume
9. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $9.3M, $3,551 PTA, $108.2M cume
10. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $7.5M, $3,347 PTA, $104.52M cume
11. The Unborn (Rogue) - $7.92M, $3,357 PTA, $31.15M cume
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $5.59M, $9,605 PTA, $42.42M cume


http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/01/16/mlk-estimates/
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All i can, and will, say is WOW. I never saw this one coming. 2009 is off to a fantastic start. Not a single one of the openers so far has done poorly.

WOW is right! If those numbers hold, Mason was really wrong about Notorious (What a difference a day makes!), which looks to pick up points in both categories. I'm sure someone on this forum was predicting good numbers for Notorious. Although, It's too bad to see Bride Wars will get no points in its second week for Ultimate Players.

I predicted good things for Notorious. Anticipation and a hit soundtrack can help your film.

And once the bad word-of-mouth gets out for My Bloody Valentine, expect the film to drop like a hot rock.

Paul Blart could become the first January movie to hit $100 million since Star Wars re-issue. Notorious grabbed a $17,000 PTA.

Anyone want to join my club?

BarcaRulz wrote:EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $9.5M, $3,022 PTA, $9.5M cume
2. NEW – Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $9M, $5,495 PTA, $9M cume
3. NEW - My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $7.5M, $2,960 PTA, $7.5M cume

All i can, and will, say is WOW. I never saw this one coming. 2009 is off to a fantastic start. Not a single one of the openers so far has done poorly.

I had Paul Blart on my Ultimate slate until mid-week when I dropped it, based partly on the tracking, and because I felt like the movie was suffering from an image problem which would probably hurt the IMDB rating. The trailer looks very funny to me, and I originally saw it as a working man's comedy, like Office Space with pratfalls, but most people seem to think it's a dumb kids movie based on the director's track record and the PG rating. It'll be interesting to see how the IMDB rating plays out since the message boards there seemed to be mainly negative before the movie's release.

I felt like anything could happen this weekend, so I played it safe and opted for more of a sure thing down the road, but I'm glad I kept Paul Blart on my BO slates, and took a $5 BO gamble on My Bloody Valentine.

I'm rooting for Paul Blart in the long run because I started working as a security guard earlier this year (at a college, not a mall) so a lot of the jokes in the trailer ring true and made me laugh out loud. I just hope the movie lives up to the trailer.

Buscemi wrote:I predicted good things for Notorious. Anticipation and a hit soundtrack can help your film.

And once the bad word-of-mouth gets out for My Bloody Valentine, expect the film to drop like a hot rock.

What bad word of mouth? It has a 70% on RT with a 6.2 rating there, highest of all debuts this weekend. Not sure how a movie with ratings like those can get such bad WOM that it'll "drop like a hot rock".

It will drop because of frontloadedness and a 4-day weekend, but good word of mouth is going around.

I should have kept up on my Fox Searchlight streak on my slates. Sheesh, they are on a roll right now.

[quote="johnErle"]

BarcaRulz wrote:I'm rooting for Paul Blart in the long run because I started working as a security guard earlier this year (at a college, not a mall) so a lot of the jokes in the trailer ring true

do you fall out of a lot of ventilation systems?

A slightly different perspective from Deadline Hollywood Daily:

SATURDAY AM: Huge weekend at the movies, up 28% over last year's Martin Luther King holiday. Analysis coming...
Mall Cop (Columbia/Sony) $9.7M Friday, estimated $32M three-day, $40M four-day
Notorious (Fox Searchlight) $8.2M Fri, $22M three-day, $26M four-day
My Boody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) $8.3M Fri, $21M three-day, $24M four-day
Gran Torino (Warner Bros) $6.3M Friday, $22M three-day, $26M four-day
Hotel For Dogs (DreamWorks/Paramount) $4.3M Fri, $18M three-day, $23M four-day

[quote="NSpan"]

johnErle wrote:

BarcaRulz wrote:I'm rooting for Paul Blart in the long run because I started working as a security guard earlier this year (at a college, not a mall) so a lot of the jokes in the trailer ring true

do you fall out of a lot of ventilation systems?

The whole Die Hard spoof is obviously an exaggerated "What If?" scenario (it is a Hollywood movie, after all) but some security guards are cop wannabes who take their jobs way too seriously while the public shows them no respect at all, just like in the trailer, and the most accurate part for me was when James asks himself "What was I trained to do in this situation? ... Nothing!"

Classic!

I regret picking bride wars. but at least most everyone else had it too

undeadmonkey wrote:I regret picking bride wars. but at least most everyone else had it too

shoulda jumped ship the moment Chugs predicted its success

not sure how this is going to translate in the other theaters but both MBV and Notorious had HUGE drop offs from fri-sat like less than half the buisness at my theater

I kinda figured that would happen ths. They seemed to be movies where that would have steep drops.

The 10:50 p.m. showing of MBV 3D was sold out here...

Box Office Mojo's Weekend Estimates:

1. Paul Blart - $33.8M
2. Gran Torino - $22.2M
3. My Bloody Valentine - $21.9M
4. Notorious - $21.5M
5. Hotel For Dogs - $17.7M


PTA:
1. Notorious - $13,126
2. Wrestler - $12,153
3. Paul Blart - $10,751
4. Revolutionary Road - $10,199
5. Slumdog Millionaire - $10,137

How about that.

Slumdog is still getting PTA points!

The Wrestler is a big PTA draw like Gran Torino, now I wonder if it'll do as well in wide expansion - it is drawing more award hype than Gran Torino has.

I hope it does. It really deserves it. I went about 30 miles to see it, and I might see it again when it goes wider.

Can anyone explain how in the hell Paul Blart is the number 1 movie in the country? I don't see the appeal there.

And $19 for only 5 Top 5 points? Thanks alot, Bride Wars.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:Can anyone explain how in the hell Paul Blart is the number 1 movie in the country? I don't see the appeal there.

A lot of people, myself included, wondered the same thing about Transformers a few years back.

Different strokes for different folks, and that's really all there is to understand.

Back on topic, that was a very impressive weekend for Paul Blart. The IMDB rating was pretty low, as I expected, but everything else was as good as you could have hoped for. Unless the second weekend is a massive dropoff, which still might happen, Paul Blart's shaping up as an awesome pick. I wish I'd stuck with it.

Transformers, at least, had a massive nostalgia campaign running at its core... i'm not sure if there are really that many King of Queens fanboys out there

People sneaking into R rated films, or turned away from R rated films... And come on, it doesn't look that bad. Plus the advertising has been so saturated. There is no escaping Paul Blart. Glad I added it to my slates last week.

If Cloverfield couldn't hit 10M then I Doubt that Paul Blart will hit 100M.