Weekend estimates for December 19th

Anything yet?

This is all i could find so far,

Its the weekend warriors predictions.


1. Yes Man (Warner Bros.) - $24.4 million N/A

2. Seven Pounds (Sony) – $20.7 million N/A

3. The Day the Earth Stood Still (20th Century Fox) – $13.5 million -56%

4. The Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $11.8 million N/A

5. Four Christmases (New Line/WB) – $8.5 million -36%

6. Bolt (Disney) - $5.4 million N/A -28%

7. Twilight (Summit) – $4.8 million -40%

8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $3.9 million +77%

9. Australia (20th Century Fox) – $2.5 million -42%

10. Milk (Focus Features) - $2.5 million -4%

I'll slide my head through the guillotine here and call for Despereaux to nearly double that projection. Somewhere between 50-100% higher.

I'm actually going with less on Slumdog Millionaire. It's expanding into middle and suburban markets, meaning that megaplexes will be running it and most of them will use Yes Man and Seven Pounds to overshadow it.

Bolt's not going to enjoy a nice drop like last week with ToD on the market. I'm going OVER for that one. For the Percentage drop.

Does Steve Mason have anything up yet for this weekend?

Steve Mason hasn't updated his twitter nor has he updated Big Hollywood or /Film yet.

I'm really intrigued about how well The Tale of Despereaux is going to do - I think it can do relatively great, and it's ad campaign has been strong in the last two weeks (from personal experience only). I'm really interested to see its (and seven pounds) tracking. As for those predictions, won't Yes Man take a lot of Four Christmases audience away, leading to a bigger drop?

As for PTA predictions, I'd say the Wrestler is almost a lock for 5, but that depends on if the Class is tracked this week for its Academy Awards run (and I'm sure it won't be another situation like Hunger). Gran Torino, Doubt and the Reader will probably take three spots (the screen count is pretty high on all the wide openings that its unlikely they'll grab any PTA).

Well, Wrestler is a given to win the PTA crown, but after that? Anybody's guess. Torino and Doubt will probably hang on in the Top 5, and Frost/Nixon and Slumdog will duke it out with Seven Pounds and Yes Man.

Since it looks like TDESS is going to have a huge dropoff, it seems likely that the Top 5 will shake out like this:

1-2. Yes Man/Seven Pounds
3. Tale of Despereaux
4. Day the Earth Stood Still
5. Four Christmases or Twilight

Wish Steve was tracking somewhere. Never knew just how much we need him till he's goine..

Too bad it's too late for people to change, but here is Mason's final weekend tracking (source: http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/author/smason/):

FINAL WEEKEND PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF 12/19
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $26.35M
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) - $24.78M
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $15.19M
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $10.11M
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $9.75M
6. Bolt (Disney) - $5.49M
7. Twilight (Summit) - $4.78M
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.64M
9. Milk (Focus) - $2.8M
10. Australia (Fox) - $2.57M
11. Quantum of Solace (Sony) - $2.24M
12. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.84M
13. Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) - $1.69M
*Doubt (Miramax) - $1.06M
*Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $687,000
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) - $602,000
*NEW – The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) - $232,000
*The Reader (Weinstein) - $131,000

It's a good read about the battle of two of the biggest box office draws - Smith (11) Vs. Carrey (12).

Mason's reasons for Yes Man winning?
"1. More playdates 3,434 to 2,758
2. Tone – People are more interested in a couple of laughs than they are in a “heavy” spiritual message, even if it is generally optimistic
3. Warner Bros can do no wrong in 2008
4. Will Smith backlash"

I don't know about that last one.

Also, from the article - the PTA race could end like this:
The Wrestler ($58,000, 2nd Best this year behind Frost/Nixon)
Gran Torino ($36,000)
Doubt ($27,341)
The Reader ($16,000)
Frost/Nixon ($14,600)

Impressive number for Slumdog.

I wouldnt be surprised if the numbers came in a little light this weekend. I'm here in Michigan and we got slammed with snow and it sounds like it's worse around Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana. I would think it would at least affect the Friday numbers.

STEVE MASON'S FRIDAY NUMBERS AND WEEKEND ESTIMATES:

Jim Carrey and his high-concept comedy Yes Man (Warner Bros) will win the pre-Christmas weekend out-performing Will Smith’s more challenging Seven Pounds (Sony), although both films seem to be under-performing industry expectations.. Audiences are saying “Yes” to a breezy, cheerful, undemanding movie experience, although it is not a particularly emphatic “Yes.” In my Final Weekend Tracking column, I predicted $26.35M for Yes Man, and industry tracking certainly supported an opening in the mid-$20M’s. Instead, moviegoers have agreed to the tune of only $6.7M on opening day, and that could translate to a less-than-expected $18.76 or so by Monday morning.

Meanwhile, Will Smith has landed in unfamiliar territory. This strange new land for the World’s Biggest Movie Star is called “Second Place.” Seven Pounds managed to churn up only $5.3M to start the 3-day, and I am projecting a $15.63M opening. This movie, a re-teaming of Smith with his Pursuit of Happyness director Gabriele Muccino, has endured scathing early reviews and some definite “Will Smith is a little full of himself” backlash. The movie has been described as pretentious and downright dumb by some critics, and heart wrenchingly-optimistic and emotionally cathartic by others. The end result is Smith’s weakest opening since 2000’s Ali ($14.7M).

Yes Man is the latest in a year-long winning streak for Warner Bros Not only have they locked up the studio market share race for 2008, this decent-not-great opening may lift Warner Bros to finish the year with more domestic ticket sales than any studio in history. If my opening weekend number for Yes Man holds, I am projecting that the film could bank a possible $48M (conservatively) before the end of the year. Add to that a projected cume of $120M for Four Christmases by the close of business on December 31, and an anticipated $5.4M or so from the limited engagements of Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (70 playdates starting Christmas Day), and Warner Bros would reach an annual domestic sales figure of $1.75 billion, surpassing Sony’s $1.71 billion take in 2006.

The Dark Knight ($530.7M domestic so far) is the lynchpin of Warner Bros’ soon-to-be record-breaking year, but there are 4 other $100M+ grossing films that have helped to push the studio over-the-top. Along with Four Christmases, which will blow by $100M on Sunday, WB has also scored with Sex and the City ($152.6M cume), Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and Journey to the Center of the Earth ($101.7M cume). Sony set the previous record with one $200M+ performer (Da Vinci Code), 3 $100M+ hits (Casino Royale, Talladega Nights and Click) and about $96M of the ultimate $163.5M gross for Pursuit of Happyness, which landed in December 2006.

As for Will Smith, Seven Pounds is likely to break his historic streak of consecutive $100M+ grossing movies, which stands at 8.

2002 – Men in Black II - $52.1M opening - $190.4M cume
2003 – Bad Boys II - $46.5M opening - $138.6M cume
2004 – I, Robot - $52.1M opening - $144.8M cume
2004 – Shark Tale - $47.6M opening - $160.8M cume
2005 – Hitch - $43.1M opening - $179.4M cume
2006 – The Pursuit of Happyness - $26.5M opening - $163.5M cume
2007 – I Am Legend - $77.2M opening - $256.4M cume
2008 – Hancock - $62.6M opening - $227.9M cume

Critical pans be damned, people love Will Smith, but I am betting that the word-of-mouth on Seven Pounds will not be enough to net the 6.4 multiple that would be required to push it past $100M.

Universal’s Tale of Despereaux coaxed an estimated $3.8M in ticket sales to start the weekend and, with huge matinee business on Saturday and Sunday, the all-time umpteenth animated mouse movie should reach an estimated $15.27M good for third place, setting up for some solid holiday week business.

As expected, The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) has fallen apart, down about 67% for the weekend. Keanu Reeves’ spin on Klaatu could only muster $3.1M on its second Friday, and it will finish the frame with about $10.07M for a 10-day cume of $48.55M.

Rounding out the Top 5 is the aforementioned and surprisingly durable Four Christmases. Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon enjoyed another $3.06M in Friday sales, and it will deliver $9.49M or so more of “holiday cheer” for Warner Bros by Monday morning.

Details of the weekend’s specialty releases and lots of analysis is on tap for Saturday morning.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $6.7M, $1,951 PTA, $6.7M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) - $5.3M, $1,922 PTA, $5.3M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $3.8M, $1,224 PTA, $3.8M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $3.1M, $871 PTA, $41.57M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $3.06M, $871 PTA, $95.47M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) - $1.55M, $521 PTA, $154.79M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) - $1.31M, $443 PTA, $92.06M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.24M, $2,120 PTA, $10.23M cume
9. Milk (Focus) - $804,000, $2,257 PTA, $9.48M cume
10. Australia (Fox) - $763,000, $345 PTA, $40.38M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $18.76M, $5,463 PTA, $18.76M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) - $15.63M, $5,669 PTA, $15.63M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $15.27M, $4,921 PTA, $15.27M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $10.07M, $2,830 PTA, $48.55M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $9.49M, $2,701 PTA, $101.9M cume
6. Bolt (Disney) -$5.66M, $1,908 PTA, $96.41M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.86M, $8,268 PTA, $13.85M cume
8. Twilight (Summit) - $4.83M, $1,616 PTA, $158.06M cume
9. Milk (Focus) - $2.93M, $8,237 PTA, $11.61M cume
10. Australia (Fox) - $2.59M, $1,172 PTA, $42.21M cume

waiting for my props...

This is a shockingly weak weekend, compared to last year.

Numbers came in way below Mason's estimates. Snow was defintely a factor on Friday. Hopefully, there are big increases today.

Today was just as bad here, both weather-wise and business-wise.

And the weather isn't getting better tomorrow either. Saw Despereaux tonight but the theater wasn't packed at all.

I'll be wanting a review of that puppy, Geeze.

I'll try and get it to you by the end of the day

sigh....no love

While the amounts are significantly lower than Mason's first prediction, the order came in the same.

Box Office Mojo's weekend studio estimates:

Top 5 (rounded)
1. Yes Man - $18.2M
2. Seven Pounds - $16.0M
3. The Tale of Despereaux - $10.5M
4. The Day The Earth Stood Still - $10.2M
5. Four Christmasses - 7.75M

PTA (rounded)
1. The Wrestler - 52K
2. Gran Torino - 25K
3. Doubt - 19K
4. The Reader - 13K
5. Frost/Nixon - 9K

Brockman you were absolutely right. You are the of predicting that bad weather will make people stay in and not go to the movies. Very good call.

LOL...it's really rocket science...it just came to me on Friday