Christmas Tracking

RS from notfabio

BEDTIME STORIES: High 30's
MARLEY AND ME: Mid 20's
CURIOUS CASE: Low 20's
VALKYRIE: Mid Teens
DOUBT: Between 6-9
SPRIT: Between 5-7

FUTURE

FUTURE:
MY BLOODY VALENTINE: Low 30's 4-day (!) (The breakdowns as far as awareness and desire to see for it make no sense to be that high. It is scoring better than the other titles tracked for teen males)

THE UNBORN: Between 10-13
PAUL BLART: High Single Digits
HOTEL FOR DOGS: Between 6-9
BRIDE WARS: Mid 20's

Those numbers on my bloody valentine seriously make no sense

Bedtime Stories looks low. I would of thought high 40s to low 50s

Low 30's for Blood Valentine?? That can't be right. I saw the preview for the first time this weekend and it looks awful...and when I say awful I mean I'd rather get kicked in the nuts than go see it.

I also saw the preview for the Paul Blart Mall Cop movie and that looks awful too. Which is too bad b/c I think Kevin James is funny. They must be promoting the shit out of it though b/c I saw the preview like 5 times over the weekend.

The Unborn trailer didn't do anything for me either.

I've read some good early word for My Bloody Valentine but if Lionsgate wants a hit, they better release it 3-D only. I've seen the footage in 2-D and it looks like shit. And if they release it both ways and people see the 2-D version, you can expect horrible word of mouth.

Meanwhile, I'm surprised that there is no advance tracking for Notorious. I could see that doing $20 million on opening weekend.

Went and saw 2 movies yesterday:

10:25 a.m. showing of Marly and Me was surprisingly pretty full. This was my fiance's choice for a movie, but it was actually a good one. If you love dogs you'll need to bring a box of tissue.

6:30 p.m. showing of Seven pounds was sold out. I hate sitting in a sold out movie, but I didn't really expect it to be sold out. Great movie though.

On a side note, this theater had the Spirit playing in one of it's smaller theaters while Valkrie was playing in a larger one. That surprised me a little and doesnt bode well for the Spirits chances.

On another side note, I saw the preview for Mosters vs Aliens for the first time and laughed my ass off. That thing is going to be HUGE.

Steve Mason's Christmas Day Estimates and 4 Day Predictions (I'm only posting the Top 5, the rest can be found at Big Hollywood). Those of you who picked Marley and Me must be stoked as it set an all time Christmas day record, those of us who picked Bedtime Stories (and there are a lot of us) are in a little bit of trouble as it's under performing for the amount spent. As for Benjamin Button, it's doing way better than most could have predicted - and I bet there is a chance it could take #1 next week with a smaller % drop, which would hurt the people that thought it'd be a good bankrupt league pick.

"EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED CHRISTMAS DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Marley & Me (Fox) - $14.5M, $4,167 PTA, $14.5M cume
2. NEW – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $11.8M, $3,949 PTA, $11.8M cume
3. NEW – Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $10.3M, $2,798 PTA, $10.3M cume
4. NEW – Valkyrie (MGM/UA) - $8.4M, $3,098 PTA, $8.4M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $5.8M, $1,689 PTA, $32.22M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED 4-DAY CHRISTMAS WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Marley & Me (Fox) - $56.12M, $16,127 PTA, $56.12M cume
2. NEW – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $48.21M, $16,136 PTA, $48.21M cume
3. NEW – Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $46.42M, $12,612 PTA, $46.42M cume
4. NEW – Valkyrie (MGM/UA) - $33.97M, $12,530 PTA, $33.97M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $24.16M, $7,036 PTA, $51.58M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 4-DAY CHRISTMAS PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – 3 locations, $66,000 PTA (predicted)
2. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – 84 locations, $41,754 PTA
3. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – 18 locations, $36,679 PTA
4. NEW – Waltz with Bashir (Sony Classics) – 6 locations, $29,919 PTA
5. NEW – Last Chance Harvey (Overture) – 6 location, $28,833 PTA"

Some good news for us who bet on Bedtime Stories, Deadline Hollywood Daily says "Bedtime Stories had been expected to lead the pack of five films opening today. But watch out for it tomorrow because of the Adam Sandler starrer's short running time and kiddie matinees all holiday weekend." Perhaps it can come back to win the weekend.