SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 8/7 - G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, Julie & Julia, A Perfect Getaway, et al.

Sigh. It’s the beginning of the end, folks. One can’t help but be a little wistful at this point in the calendar. The best is now behind us, and we move on to the filler months. And while August, September and October are not TOTALLY devoid of quality, there are barely any titles that you can vociferously point to and yell “Surefire hit!” And though it is unlikely to pan out as such, there is a lingering possibility that the three-month period separating the summer season from the winter season will not yield a single blockbuster. Only three films in this time period one year ago were able to cross the magic nine-digit plateau, and only just: The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor ($102 million), Tropic Thunder ($110 million) and Eagle Eye ($101 million). I seriously doubt that there will be that many in 2009.

The first of the three major films scheduled for release on August 7th is G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra. Now, it’s still very early, and I am going to assume that this number will fall a bit, but at the moment, this film currently boasts a score of 83% (5/6 positive reviews) on RottenTomatoes, which, I must admit, I was not expecting, as it looks, from the trailer, to be little more than a middle-grade by-the-numbers actioner with a few recognizable names in the cast, some cool effects, and a familiarity to most moviegoers. Not unlike The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, which was released on this exact weekend last year, this title definitely looks to be the last big bang of the summer season.

Here are some quotes from the aforementioned positive reviews: “A summer movie, through and through.” “Pure escapist fun.” “Not a great movie, but you’ll find that inner child in you that still likes to play pretend.” “A delightfully light, fun and action-packed kick in the ass.” Well, folks, that’s all the encouragement I need to see it.

Now, let me first say that as a kid, I was never really into the whole “action-figure” thing, particularly not military-themed ones, which is what the whole G.I. Joe franchise started out as. Of course, it eventually expanded into comic books and its own Saturday morning cartoon (two of them, in fact), and the “real American heroes” are definitely part of the American sub-culture as much as Spider-Man is, so I guess it was only a matter of time before a full-scale big-screen adaptation took place.

The story itself is set ten years in the future. Director Stephen Sommers (The Mummy) assures newcomers to the franchise that the film will make sense to the uninitiated, as it is very much an “origin” story, telling the beginnings of the nefarious COBRA organization, not to mention how the whole G.I. Joe team was put together. The names of the characters, not to mention the actors who play them, should be very familiar: Gen. Hawk (Dennis Quaid), Duke (Channing Tatum), Scarlett (Rachel Nichols), Snake-Eyes (Ray Park), Ripcord (Marlon Wayans) and Heavy-Duty (Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje). Brendan Fraser is rumored to have a cameo. On the other side you have Destro (Chris Eccleston), The Cobra Commander (Joseph Gordon-Levitt), The Baroness (Sienna Miller), and Zartan (Arnold Vosloo, the Mummy himself).

I don’t know much about the plot itself, but I’m sure it will play out as a typical good guys vs. bad guys film, full of explosions, high-tech gadgets, and one-liners. (If the scene where the Eiffel Tower topples is as cool as it looks in the trailer, it may be one of the most memorable visual scenes of the year.) At a running time of just shy of two hours, this is definitely the last adrenaline rush of summer 2009. And I have a feeling audiences will lap it up.

This film will run you $28 in the new August Ultimate leagues (get in now!) and $29 in the Box Office leagues, and of the two or three films in the August-October season that have a chance to get within spitting distance of $100 million, this one has by far the best chance to do so within the confines of the season. It’s the most expensive property, of course, but it should also generate you at least eleven Top 5 points, a few PTA, a User Rating in the 7’s, and very close to, if not over, $100 million. Some pundits even have it going as high as $130 million. I’d take this one if I were you.

We all know who Julia Child was. She was the extremely tall female chef who revolutionized French cooking in America with her 1961 cookbook Mastering the Art of French Cooking. Millions of homes welcomed her weekly during the run of her many cooking shows, where she prepared terrific dishes with flair, pizzazz, and that oft-imitated aristocratically high-pitched voice.

Not quite as many people know who Julie Powell is. Born in Texas in 1973, she started a blog in 2002 wherein she attempted to cook, in the span of one calendar year, every single one of the 524 recipes in Child’s book. Said blog was eventually made into a book in 2005, and now, acclaimed director Nora Ephron brings us the story of both ladies’ lives, in a film called Julie & Julia.

First impressions: it’s good to see Ephron back in the director’s chair again. The lady who brought us classic rom-coms When Harry Met Sally, Sleepless in Seattle and You’ve Got Mail is long overdue for another breakout hit, and she may have it with this one. (God knows, we’ve been waiting for four years to cleanse our palate of her last outing, Bewitched. Ugh.)

Of course, Julie & Julia is not so much a rom-com as it is a heartwarming, true-to-life story of two women determined to make a name for themselves. And it CERTAINLY doesn’t hurt to have two of the most respect actresses in the business today playing your lead characters. It seems unfathomable that we last saw these two actresses a mere nine months ago playing stern-as-stone nuns in Doubt (both of them earning Oscar noms), but Meryl Streep is donning Child’s sizable apron (and no doubt, will need a few visual tricks for her to grow five inches), and Amy Adams is playing Julie Powell.

To list Streep’s incredible resume here would take several pages; suffice it to say, there is no actress with as many Oscar nominations as she. And Adams is no slouch herself: she’s been nominated for many awards herself (and won a few), and has, at the age of 35, amassed an amazing variety of movie roles: Enchanted!, Junebug, Charlie Wilson’s War, Sunshine Cleaning, Doubt, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian. There seem to be few genres that she won’t throw herself into, much like Streep herself.

I am not one who sees many “chick flicks” in theaters. But I must admit, this one intrigues me a lot. Not only do I have such respect for Streep and Adams (not to mention Stanley Tucci, who plays Child’s husband), but I’ve always been an aficionado of cooking shows, and this story promises to be well-directed, well-acted and enjoyable.

The downside is, it’s only being released in 2,300 theaters, which indicates to me that fantastic numbers may be hard to come by. I would imagine that Streep’s many admirers will flock to see her on its opening weekend, and, if the film is a success, may expand a little further in ensuing weeks. In all, I predict an OW of $22 million, en route to a grand total take of $63 million. Films like this tend to have pretty good legs, and there really isn’t anything this light-hearted and heartwarming on the roster until Tyler Perry’s next film bows in September.

That being said, Julie & Julia isn’t exactly cheap. It’ll run you $15 in Ultimate leagues and $14 in Box Office. I think it’s a very good pickup (though possibly not quite a great one), and I have little doubt that it will have a terrific User Rating. Its RottenTomatoes score is not very promising (20% at the moment), but the allure of Streep and Adams is unmistakable. ‘Nuff said.

Hostel. Vacancy. The Strangers. Funny Games. The Last House on the Left. Turistas. Did any of you out there actually WATCH these films? The themes are the same: a couple (or family, or small group of people) travel to a remote location, where they are summarily kidnapped, captured, or trapped with a couple (or larger group) of REALLY bad people have designs on terrorizing them, and it turns into an all-out struggle for survival. (I actually sat through three of these films, and no, I’m not telling you which ones, as it doesn’t really matter anyway.)

The latest entry into this misbegotten genre is A Perfect Getaway. About the only thing I can find about this film that I like is the fact that it is directed by David Twohy, who was behind the camera for several of my favorite most recent sci-fi/thrillers (The Arrival, Pitch Black). He’s been off the grid since Chronicles of Riddick underwhelmed in 2004, and I don’t see Getaway as much of a return to form for him.

Steve Zahn and Milla Jovovich play lovers (no, really) Cliff and Cydney, who travel by chopper to a very remote area in the Hawaiian islands for a spot of adventure, including hiking, climbing, beautiful scenery… you know, a dream vacation. They hook up with two other couples: Nick and Gina (Hitman’s Timothy Olyphant and Kiele Sanchez), and Kale and Cleo (Chris Hemsworth and Marley Shelton), but the backpacking sojourn takes a dangerous turn when Cliff and Cydney’s new “friends” may not be all they seem to be. Screaming and running ensue.

How can I put this? This film does not interest me. At all. Apart from the genre being pretty well played-out by now, I just got down watching three whole months worth of people getting killed at a remote location on TV’s Harper’s Island, the ending of which was so disappointing I neglected to do my synopsis of the finale on the Boards. And despite the fact that Milla J. is still as hot as a supernova on Friday, this film seems like a late-night DVD rental at best…

…Which is why it is only priced at $5 in both August leagues. Now, you may want to take note: in the Box Office leagues, pretty much everything priced BELOW $5 is a limited-release film. And while I honestly don’t expect its 2,000-screen debut to bear much in the way of fruit, say, $20 million max, I can guarantee that nothing cheaper than this one is going to do better (your other $5 options are Post Grad, Taking Woodstock and Carriers, none of which inspire much confidence). And as for Ultimate? Forget it. One Top 5 point at the most, no PTA, a User Rating around 5.0 and $20 million are not near enough for me to recommend it. Hell, no.

And now, a little bit about the three limited-release films of August 7th:

Paper Heart ($7 Ult, $4 BO) – This film may be the PTA pick of the week. It is a documentary, starring Asian-American actress Charlyne Yi (who also wrote the screenplay, produced, directed, and composed the original music… holy moly!), who embarks on “a quest across America to make a film about the one subject she doesn’t fully understand: love.” Along the way she meets actor Michael Cera (playing himself), who becomes the object of her affections. (And throw Seth Rogen into the mix somewhere.)

On the one hand, this film already has a boatload of accolades: it won the Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award at Sundance this year (and was nominated for the Grand Jury Prize), currently boasts a User Rating on IMDb of 7.4 (340 votes) and has an incredible “100% Fresh” score on RT. On the other hand, it is bowing on 40 screens this Friday. That’s a relatively high number to hope for a PTA champ (though it didn’t hurt The Hurt Locker), but it is something to think about.

Cold Souls ($5 Ult, $2 BO) – Paul Giamatti plays a fictionalized version of himself – an anxious, overwhelmed actor (named “Paul”) who decides to enlist the service of a company to deep-freeze his soul. Complications ensue when his soul gets lost in a soul-trafficking scheme which has taken his soul to St. Petersburg. (God, don’t you just HATE when that happens??) David Strathairn and Emily Watson also co-star.

Written and directed by Sophia Barthes (Happiness), Cold Souls currently boasts an IMDB User Rating of 7.9 (175 votes) and an RT score of 79% Fresh. The best review quote that I have gleaned from RT is as follows: “Giamatti gives one of his best performances, but even with this film’s humor this chilly head-scratcher is hard to recommend as either solid entertainment or deep insight. (Robert Davis, Paste Magazine).”

According to ComingSoon, this title will debut only in New York and Los Angeles this Friday. I don’t know how many screens that will translate to, but I don’t think this film, director and cast has enough appeal to pack in the few theaters that show it. I’d pass on this one.

I Sell the Dead ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – On the other hand, Box Office Mojo has this title opening on exactly ONE screen. Whether that will translate to a PTA of $20,000 or $2,000, however, is unknown. The film debut for Irish director Glenn McQuaid, this film is a period comedy about the rip-roaring subject of – wait for it – grave robbing. Yeah, I’m practically laughing already. It stars Ron Perlman (Hellboy) and Dominic Monaghan (LOTR, Lost), and it is being distributed by IFC, who scored a major hit last month with In The Loop.

Its current IMDb rating is 7.6 (157 votes) and its RT score is 83% (5/6). Critics call it “old-school horror reverie,” “a juicy gothic yarn” and “playfully crafted”. Sounds like a cult-classic in the making, but for your slates? I remain skeptical. For only $3, even if it doesn’t yield any PTA points (which it still might), at least you’ll have a decent Rating to help you in that category. And really, when a movie is that cheap, if it gives you anything at all, that’s good, right?


My predictions for the weekend of August 7-9, 2009:

1. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra - $32 million
2. Julie & Julia - $22 million
3. Funny People - $13 million
4. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - $10 million
5. G-Force - $9 million
6. A Perfect Getaway - $8 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, a whopping seven new films to talk about, as I tackle the films of August 14th. In wide release, we have District 9, The Time Traveler’s Wife, Bandslam and The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard, and in limited release, we have Ponyo, Spread and It Might Get Loud.

Later!

Had to do the trailers in a separate entry, the original post was "too big":




(Sorry about the intro, it's only about :35 long, it's the best I could find)

It's surprising that G.I. Joe actually has reviews in, especially considering the fact that Paramount won't be screening the film to critics until Thursday night.

In short, the positive reviews are probably all from websites and less than reputable sources.

The reviews are from the following sources:

Mark Adams, Daily Mirror (UK) - positive
Paul Fischer, Dark Horizons - positive
Julian Roman, MovieWeb - positive
Todd Gilchrist, SciFi Wire - positive
Jimmy O, JoBlo's Movie Emporium - positive
Drew McWeeny, HitFix - positive
Devin Faraci, CHUD - positive

and

Emmanuel Levy - negative (the only one I've actually heard of)


Hmm.. Maybe you have something there.

Paul Fischer's a real big quote whore. Not Harry Knowles big, but he's still known to give anything a positive review.

And Drew McWeeny worked for Harry Knowles so he's obviously not a good source.

I'm thinking G.I. Joe is gonna hit at least $50M OW, I think this one will be popular. And actually pretty good. JimmyO said this movie is the lighthearted, good fun-having, explosion-fest, summer-epitome film that Transformers 2 wished it could be.

If anyone has any Thursday tracking numbers, please put them here.

My guesses:

1. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra - $32 million
2. Julie & Julia - $22 million
3. Funny People - $13 million
4. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - $10 million
5. G-Force - $9 million
6. A Perfect Getaway - $8 million


BOM's estimates (rounding up or down):

1. G.I. Joe - $56 million
2. Julie & Julia - $20 million
3. G-Force - $10 million
4. Harry Potter - $9 million
5. Funny People - $8 million
7. Perfect Getaway - $6 million


Wow. Not very good. Way low on G.I. Joe, way high on Funny People. Pretty close on J&J, HP6 and G-Force.

Anyone think District 9 can take #1 next week, despite being in 1,000 fewer theaters? Or will G.I. Joe have a tremendous dropoff next week?

With great reviews so far I'm thinking District 9 will indeed make it Number 1 making about 30 mil). GI Joe should see the usual 50-60% drop off (25 mil)

I'll favor District 9 here.

Early Predictions:
1.District 9 $32 million
2.G.I. Joe $25 million
3.Julia and Julia $13 million
4.The Time Traveler's Wife $11.5 million
- Bandslam $6.5 million
- The Goods $4.5 million
- Ponyo $4 million