SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 7/24 - G-Force, The Ugly Truth, Orphan et al.

Gadzooks, $158 million! Kudos to the Harry Potter folks, as Half-Blood Prince got off to the fastest start in franchise history. Even though the story was, for me, the least exciting of the bunch, I know that it is merely serving as a platform for the epic two-part seventh and final chapter in the series, The Deathly Hallows, which I can now not wait for. And also kudos to those wily players who chose 500 Days of Summer, which outslugged the boy wizard in PTA by nearly a 2 to 1 margin. Huzzah! (Side note: three PTA points for Battle For Terra, down to one stinkin’ theater in its 12th week of release?? WTF?!?)

This is the twelfth week of the summer season, and there have been twelve films to reach “blockbuster” status ($100 million or more). But now one has to wonder: how many more will there be? Now that Harry Potter, in all of its thunderous glory, has entered theaters, is there really anything left to look forward to? IMHO, not really. Oh, there are still a few possibilities for success remaining, and there are always titles that surprise, but I think it’s safe to say that the entrees are over, and we are now moving on to the “coffee-and-dessert” portion of the menu. To wit, the weekend of July 24th, which features the release of three major and three minor films. Any one of them could be break out hits or surprises, or they could very well leave you wondering what happened.

The first sampling from summer’s dessert cart is G-Force, the latest film to be brought to us, courtesy of Walt Disney Pictures, in Digital 3-D. This action/comedy is produced by one of the mavens of the action movie, Jerry Bruckheimer (Top Gun, Con Air, The Rock, Armageddon, National Treasure, etc.), and is being helmed, in his directorial debut, by Hoyt Yeatman, who up till now has been one of Bruckheimer’s biggest contributors in the area of visual effects.

The main characters in this film… are guinea pigs. Yeah, one of the few members of the animal kingdom not to get their own feature film until now. (Who wants to bet that gerbils are next?) But these are not your ordinary household pets – no, these furry rodents are a special, government-trained group of secret agents, consisting of: team leader Darwin (Sam Rockwell), martial-arts expert Juarez (Penelope Cruz), weapons expert Blaster (Tracy Morgan), intel/recon guy Speckles (Nicolas Cage), and a surveillance-doing housefly named Mooch.

The story: the group goes on a mission to stop evil billionaire Leonard Saber (Bill Nighy), who wants to take over the world using household appliances (huh??), but before they can complete their mission, the government shuts them down (phooey), and transfers them to a pet shop (bummer), where they meet fellow caged rodents Hurley (Jon Favreau) and Bucky (Steve Buscemi). Can they escape, find their human contact (The Hangover’s Zach Galifianakis), and save the world? (Hint: It’s Disney, what do you think?)

To call this film “fluff” is an understatement. I’m sure the effects will be fine, and the dialogue and action will be more than sufficient to entertain anyone under the age of 17. For adults, however, it’s not exactly a must-see; I myself toyed with the idea of watching it, but, given that the trailer is rife with scatological humor, I quickly dismissed it.

Even so, for $13 in the July Ultimate leagues ($15 in Box Office), this is not necessarily a bad pick. It’s lowbrow, sure, but it’s also Disney, and if Race to Witch Mountain could muster $65 million in a March release, I have little doubt G-Force can do just as well. It will never top Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince on its OW, but it could easily pull in over $20 million for #2. In all, I predict 7-8 Top 5 Points, a couple of PTA, and a User Rating in the low 6’s. Probably one of the safer bets of the week.

I was, and still am, shocked at how well The Proposal is doing. What looked to me like another “meet the folks” rom-com starring Sandra Bullock (whose continued longevity in the genre amazes me), has become the second-highest-grossing non-animated comedy of the summer. Which begs the question: has it set the table for The Ugly Truth to follow suit, or will July’s only romantic comedy be dead on arrival?

On paper, one would think not. It stars Gerard Butler (300) and Katherine Heigl (27 Dresses), and is directed by Robert Luketic (Legally Blonde, Monster-in-Law), who’s no rookie when it comes to the genre. The story revolves around Abby Richter (Heigl), a morning-show TV producer who is, shall we say, less-than-successful when it comes to relationships. But when the network hires Mike Chadaway (Butler) – who is as chauvinistic as the day is long – to be her correspondent, the gloves come off. At loggerheads from the get-go, eventually a wager is struck: Mike will use his vast quantities of “male” experience to help Abby’s burgeoning relationship with a surgeon named Colin (Eric Winter) successful, or he will quit his job.

Hmm. Reminds me a lot of the 2001 film Someone Like You in reverse, and I wonder if the ending will be the same. I’m loath to think that The Ugly Truth will flop, especially given the success of The Hangover and The Proposal, but something about this film just sets off alarm bells for me. It could be the fact that it’s as formulaic and predictable as hell, it could be the fact that it was originally supposed to come out in April, before it was summarily bumped, and it could be that Heigl, for all her beauty and charm, just isn’t up to Bullock’s level in the game of dueling rom-coms. History may prove me wrong, but I don’t foresee much more than $55 million for this picture.

It will run you $11 in Ultimate leagues ($12 in Box Office), and honestly, I think you’ll get marginally less bang for your buck for The Ugly Truth than you will for G-Force. You’ll get fewer Top 5 points (I predict five, at the most), fewer PTA points (I predict zero), roughly the same User Rating, and less money earned. Plus, I have to believe that more moviegoers are clamoring more heavily for Adam Sandler’s comedy Funny People, which opens one week later, and may cause Truth’s audience to shy away.

It may shock you to learn that Leonardo DiCaprio himself is listed as a producer for our third film of the week, a horror film called Orphan, but it’s true. Based on a story by Alex Mace and helmed by Spanish-born director Jaume Collet-Serra (House of Wax), Orphan tells the tragic tale of John and Kate (Peter Sarsgaard and Vera Farmiga), who are devastated when Kate loses her unborn child. In an effort to cope, they decide to adopt a young girl named Esther (Isabelle Fuhrman) from a local orphanage. However, as the tagline for the film reads, “There’s something wrong with Esther”. Oops. In true horror fashion, as soon as Esther moves in, tragic “accidents” begin to occur, leading John and Kate ("minus eight") to delve into Esther’s mysterious background, to figure out just how disturbed she is.

I’ve read rumors that this film has stirred up some controversy in the adoption community, as it purportedly involves Esther’s past in Eastern Europe, and her unexpected cruelty toward her adoptive mother, which are supposedly just nasty clichés. In any case, I don’t think this controversy will have an effect on its overall performance, and neither will Leo’s involvement (it might have had they put his name in the trailer, but I doubt it).

This film may have a good opening weekend, given that it’s the first horror film to come out since Drag Me to Hell in late May, but most horror films tend to drop like a lead weight after its first three days, so I’ll predict an OW of $13 million, with a maximum output of $30 million. Given its competition, I don’t see it coming in any higher than #4 on its OW (possibly #5 or lower, if Ice Age continues to hold well), which means only two Top 5 points, no PTA, and a middling User Rating, which is not nearly enough to justify spending $7 on it in Ultimate (or $8 in Box Office). For the same amount of dough, try something with more appeal and less competition, like Bandslam or Shorts.

All three of this week’s limited-release films have something to recommend them: a great cast or star, much critical acclaim, a very good IMDb rating, or all of the above. Choosing one above the other, for you players, is going to depend almost entirely on how many theaters they are being released in, so pay close attention in the days leading up to July 24th.

In the Loop ($5 Ult, $2 BO) – This film garnered much praise at the Sundance Film Festival, and is being distributed by IFC films, the same studio that fielded winners like Transamerica and Paranoid Park. The story is a political satire, where government officials of the U.S. and England rush frantically about trying to decide whether to start a war in the Middle East or prevent one. It stars James Gandolfini, David Rasche, Anna Chlumsky and, in a brilliant turn as the P.M., Peter Capaldi.

This film has a whopping “97% Fresh” score on RottenTomatoes (that’s 36 of 37, folks), and here are some snippets from some of the most respected critics in the biz: “Spinal Tap meets Dr. Strangelove.” “A brilliant riposte to Burn After Reading.” “Both insanely funny and a desperate cry for sanity.” “A fast and furious farce that looks and feels authentic.”

I sincerely hope that this film gets a truly “limited” release, like between 5-10 theaters and not up in that no-man’s-land for PTA like 50-200, because if it does, look for this film to take the PTA crown. I’ve already got it on several of my slates, and so should you. It’s already got a 7.9 User Rating on IMDb with nearly 2,000 votes, so you know it’s not going to change much… what are you waiting for?? Oh yeah, the theater counts…

Shrink ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This film has a much less rosy outlook, both game-wise and plotline-wise. Kevin Spacey gets as close to being Lester Burnham again as he has since he won an Oscar for American Beauty. Here he plays Henry Carter, L.A.’s psychiatrist to the stars. Overworked and increasingly despondent, he turns to marijuana for relief while trying to rebuild his own shattered psyche. Mark Webber, Keke Palmer, Saffron Burrows and Robert Loggia co-star.

This one’s a tough call. It’s great to see Spacey doing the kind of role he usually shines in, and it, too, was a Sundance entry, and it DOES currently boast a User Rating of 8.1 (with 150 votes), but… hmm, what was the point I was going to make? I suddenly can’t remember. I’d feel better if I could find more than one review of it: Neil Miller of FilmSchoolRejects.com says, “The performances are solid, but it’s too neat and tidy to be credible in the end… an intimate look into Henry’s troubled mind, but it is dashed together with too many music-video-esque scenes of melodrama.”

Gamble if you dare, fellow players. Shrink could be a golden goose, or the cat that swallowed the canary. Your choice.

The Answer Man ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – By far the least “out there” of the three, this is the story of Arlen Faber (Jeff Daniels), who makes a mint after writing a series of landmark spiritual books, and is dubbed “The Answer Man” by critics and fans. But rather than being a spiritual guru and leader of men, he is actually a reclusive, deeply flawed man who wants to be left alone. Then, one day, a medical injury forces him to seek the aid of a chiropractor (Lauren Graham), and through her, tries to find a way to reconnect with the humanity that he has lost.

This is the debut of director John Hindman (who also wrote the screenplay). It, too, debuted at Sundance (wow, three in one week…), and Neil Miller says, “what Answer Man lacks in uniqueness or pace, it certainly makes up for with wit, and the engaging chemistry of its cast. Incredibly well-written.”

Honestly, this film has “surprise hit” written all over it. It may not give you as many PTA points as The Hurt Locker, but for $3, a handful would still represent money well spent. And if not, well, it also has a very good User Rating (7.3 with 150 votes), so it won’t be a total loss.


My predictions for the weekend of July 24-26, 2009:

1. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - $43 million
2. G-Force - $24 million
3. The Ugly Truth - $19 million
4. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - $16 million
5. Orphan - $13 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I will tackle the very last weekend of July, with six MORE titles scheduled for release on the 31st, including: Funny People, starring Adam Sandler and Seth Rogen as stand-up comedians who bond after one learns that he is dying; Aliens in the Attic, a silly-looking outing from 20th-Century Fox featuring a band of diminutive-but-hostile aliens who are looking to invade Earth, starting with the vacation home of the Pearson family - let the smackdown begin!; and four indie releases (Adam, The Cove, Thirst and Lorna’s Silence).

Later!

I think The Ugly Truth might open a little higher than that. Would probably switch it's number with G-force as TUT has basically no competition while G-Force still has Ice Age 3 and Potter to compete with.

All 3 limited released are opening fairly limited, they each are under 5 theatres. I guess it's up to which one people want to see.

And (500) Days of Summer should get some more PTA points, it looks like it's only going maybe 50 theaters or so. July 31st, it'll be coming to my city, so I can't wait to see it.

I do want to see The Ugly Truth, but Heigl/Butler are no comparison to Bullock/Reynolds. $19M may be a little high, I'm hoping Orphan will be another The Haunting in Connecticut and surprise everybody.

All under 5?? Wow, it's anybody race then...

Orphan is a bust... I can feel it in my bones. Haunting in Conn I had a feeling would do well, but Orphan... The trailers don't look good or scary at all.

I think the trailers look creepy as hell. I dont know why but creepy kids just freak me out

Now we'll see if Harry Potter is destined for $300 million or not. Cross your fingers.

I think Funny People might be another over $100 mil for the summer. Can't be sure, but with Sandler and Apatow (who were college roommates, btw) it is possible.

I agree with Funny People doing $100 million also. Apatow has cut ten minutes from the film so that should help things.

Funny People can do $100 the only other film for the rest of the summer after Funny People that i think might have 100 mill in it is G.I Joe.

I think the only film in August that has a chance at $100 million is Julie and Julia. It's like Mamma Mia, but with cooking.

I think G.I. Joe and Funny People are locks for $100M.

Julie & Julia might. Don't see a lot of marketing for it though, and it comes out in 2 weeks.

I think GI Joe's latest trailer looks pretty good. It will definitely make over $100 Million

I've seen plenty of TV adds for Julie and Julia, and it's still two weeks out. It will only increase in the interim. I think it will do fine. Maybe not $100M, but possibly $75.

I think the new G.I. Joe trailer is terrible. They replaced every Cobra Commander shot with Marlon Wayans cracking jokes that would make Michael Bay proud. Other than that, it's the same trailer.

They should have instead lessened the campiness and added more Cobra Commander (The Original No Face).

I think G.I Joe looks decent i will end up seeing due to the fact that August is a wasteland but it will do 100 mill for sure.

I agree with Shryke about Julie and Juila i think it will make around 65-75 mill.