SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 6/24, 6/26 - Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, My Sister's Keeper

On July 4th, 2007, a little film called Transformers debuted. It was loud, jam-packed with action, superb special effects, and enough droll humor to keep moviegoers of all ages engaged. In other words, a Michael Bay film. Or, more specifically, a Michael-Bay-with-a-blank-check-from-the-studios-in-his-back-pocket film. It rolled to an opening (5-day) weekend total of $155 million, en route to a total take of just under $320 million overall, good enough for the third-largest film of that year (right behind the below-average third installments of the Spider-Man and Shrek franchises, respectively).

Two years later, Bay has geared up for the second chapter in the series, entitled Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, and let me just say up-front, if this film doesn’t end up taking the 2009 Box Office Champion crown, I will be very surprised. It really shouldn’t be that difficult, when you think about it. 2007 produced a whopping FOUR films that broke the $300 million barrier (with a fifth, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, falling just short). 2008 only produced three, and 2009 has yet to produce ANY. Yes, Star Trek was and should always be considered a huge hit, but it will top out somewhere in the neighborhood of $250 million; Up, Pixar’s latest masterpiece, will likely pass The Incredibles’ mark of $261 million to become that studio’s second-biggest hit ever (trailing only Finding Nemo's $339 million), but probably will not reach that mark either.

Frankly, there are really only two films left with a shot at that plateau: Revenge of the Fallen and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, which opens three weeks down the road. But whereas Potter will likely finish near the $300 million mark, much like most of the others in the series, Transformers should blow by it in its second or third week.

Why? Well, for starters, there just ISN’T anything coming out, maybe until Avatar this winter, that is simply this BIG. While Wolverine, Star Trek, and Terminator Salvation have all passed muster as enjoyable action flicks, there has been nothing so far with as much slam-bang action as Revenge of the Fallen. And unless you are a Potter enthusiast, heavily anticipating the big-screen adaptation of the penultimate story in that series, there is nothing quite as tantalizing as this. Especially if you are in the 15-25 age range. There’s no Dark Knight waiting in the wings this year, people.

The story: two years after the last installment, Revenge finds Optimus Prime and the rest of the Autobots working alongside the British and American military to combat the remaining Decepticons hiding on Earth. Meanwhile, our young hero Sam Witwicky (Shia LaBeouf) is starting his first year at college, but when he finds a shard of the mysterious power source known as the AllSpark in his suitcase, it fills his mind with images from the Autobots’ homeworld of Cybertron. He entrusts the shard to his girlfriend Mikaela (Megan Fox), but before you know it, Transformers on both sides are popping out of the woodwork to battle for it, amidst whispers that “The Fallen” (Decepticon leader Megatron’s master) will rise again. Also reprising their roles from the first film are Josh Duhamel (Maj. William Lennox), Tyrese Gibson (MSgt. Robert Epps), John Turturro (Agent Seymour Simmons), and Kevin Dunn and Julie White (Sam’s parents).

This is the kind of movie where the plot tends to be more or less irrelevant at worst, easily disposable at best. After all, it IS a Michael Bay movie. And Bay is one of those directors whose flair and style are easily identifiable to those who have seen his films. Action, stunts and special effects are the star more than the actors themselves, and if there just happens to be a cohesive plot between the boom-booms and vroom-vrooms, so much the better.

Early reviews of Revenge of the Fallen have not been positive, but this is precisely the kind of film to which most moviegoers would say “Who cares?!” This film will be a hit – a HUGE hit – no matter what the critics say. Over 165,000 people ranked the first film on IMDb, and it finished with a User Rating of 7.4, so look for something very similar this time around (not to mention the trilogy-capper, which you can expect sometime in 2012).

Obviously, this is the most expensive property in the June leagues, costing $43 in Ultimate and $44 in Box Office. Normally, I would caution players about taking the biggest budget-gulper willy-nilly, but this time, I think it’s definitely the right thing to do. Any film that gives you a multiplier of five or higher (meaning $5 million per dollar spent) is a great pick, and I think Transformers could easily give you a multiplier of eight or nine. In Box Office anyway.

Is it worth it in Ultimate, however? That’s a little more ambiguous. I have little doubt at this time that just like in 2007, Transformers will finish ahead of Harry Potter in total dollars earned, but in the Ultimate game, there are other things to consider, especially things like Top 5 points. You see, even though Transformers will open hugely, perhaps even topping the $155 million 5-day output of its predecessor, there’s no guarantee that it will even win it’s second weekend. As I’m sure you know, July 1st (also a Wednesday) will herald the release of two more well-marketed films, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and Public Enemies. And when you consider that the last time an Ice Age film debuted, it did so with a $68 million three-day weekend… and that was in a MARCH! What will it do encapsulating the weekend that just happens to contain a national holiday?

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, on the other hand, has far smoother sailing ahead of it. The last installment in that series, The Order of the Phoenix, bowed with a very respectable $77 million two summers ago. But Potter fans are aplenty, and I look for Prince to eclipse that mark, because not only is the story darker, but it’s nearing its conclusion – plus, from what I hear, a major character dies. And since the only films that will be rising up to take Potter’s audience in the weeks after its release are a Disney family action “guinea pig” film, a Sandler comedy and whatever the hell G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra is, look for Potter to be a mainstay in the Top 5 for a long time – perhaps even longer than Transformers. It will also, more than likely, have just as many PTA points and an even better User Rating.

And my final word on the subject: how will the two titans do internationally? Same as before: Transformers will make more money in the U.S., but Harry Potter will clobber it overseas. (You’d do well to remember that the five Potter movies are in the Top 13 films of ALL TIME in dollars grossed outside the States.)

And lest I forget, there is a second wide-release film coming this weekend, that being My Sister’s Keeper, a tear-jerking family drama that is being given a Friday start-date. Based on the novel by Jodi Picoult and brought to the big screen by director/actor Nick Cassavetes (who is better remembered for The Notebook then his last attempt, Alpha Dog), Keeper tells the story of Andromeda “Anna” Fitzgerald (played by Little Miss Sunshine's Abigail Breslin), who, it seems, was conceived by her parents (Cameron Diaz and Jason Patric) solely so she could be used as a bone-marrow donor for her leukemia-stricken older sister Kate (Medium’s Sofia Vassilieva). Though she shares a tight bond with her sister, Anna has always quietly accepted the fact that her folks only bought her for the parts – until now, that is, as she hires an attorney (the always-sleazy Alec Baldwin) so she can be emancipated from them.

I’m sure this film will be as uplifting a story as it is tragic, and from the few reviews I’ve read, it’s very well-written and well-acted, particularly by Diaz. I’m not sure whether this story was based on actual events, because it easily could be, as it happens when a child is struck with a debilitating disease, it becomes the center of the family’s universe. You know that there’s only so much anyone, especially Anna, can do to keep her sister alive, but at what point does she have the right to stop?

For what it’s worth, I hope this film does well. I’m just not sure it will. Keeper may have been better served by a fall release, where it could have had more focus, rather than just serving as simple counter-programming to all of the mega-blockbusters. It will run you $9 in the June Ultimate leagues ($8 in Box Office, and though it looks to be released in roughly 2,800 theaters, this one is hit or miss. I don’t foresee an opening weekend of much more than $15 million, which means it won’t bow any higher than #3 (possibly lower, depending on how well The Hangover and Up continue to hold).

My predictions for the weekend of June 26-28, 2009:

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $93 million ($153 million 5-day)
2. The Proposal - $18 million
3. The Hangover - $17 million
4. My Sister’s Keeper - $15 million
5. Up - $14 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I will preview two more major players in the summer landscape, both coming out on Wednesday, July 1: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, the third installment in the 20th Century Fox Animation franchise, where Sid, Manny and Diego discover an underground world underneath the ice where, apparently, dinosaurs survived unnoticed for eons; and Public Enemies, Michael Mann’s latest crime drama chronicling the life of 1930’s gangster John Dillinger (Johnny Depp) and the FBI agent tasked with bringing him in (the very busy Christian Bale).

Later!


ETA: Dedicated to Donte, who shall forever be MY Ed McMahon.

I don't think Tf2 is review-proof, just look at Wolverine. Transformers will have horrible WOM and top just before or right around $300M. HP6 will have tons of repeat viewers and will probably be the highest grossing movie of the year.

And who knows about My Sister's Keeper?

To us medical terminology, Sisters Keeper is a DNR in relation to the game.

You're right that Transformers 2 is not going to be review-proof, but its heavily advertised, and will get enough people in the seats during its first weekend that the drops won't matter for whether it'll be pick worthy or not. That and it getting immunity from large drops in its second weekend since its the weekend of the 4th. Third weekend drops may be huge, but it won't matter by that time.

Transformers isnt really geting horrible WOM. idk what the drops will be like.

The transformers wom seems to be: if you know film at all, or are above the age of 18, you will find it lacking, yet possibly enjoyable. If you don't know film, are under 18, you will love it. Like Crank 2 on a much bigger scale...

Awww.

Hey, wait, do you mean the lovable gruff laughing side-kick of Johnny Carson, the annoying commercial cash for gold or publishers clearing house guy, or the 80 year old dead guy???

That's pretty accurate frendo. That's how I would describe it as well.

Donte77 wrote:Awww.

Hey, wait, do you mean the lovable gruff laughing side-kick of Johnny Carson, the annoying commercial cash for gold or publishers clearing house guy, or the 80 year old dead guy???

You're the Publisher's Clearing House guy.

Well I guess that beats the third choice...

Well, I was going to respond that you were #1, but this kind of comedy writes itself. God, I love the Fantaverse!!

Ha Ha, Yes!

Revenge of the Fallen is grossing over 200M 5 day. Book it. I feel sorry for anyone who missed this boat.

It will fall short of $200 million five-day. The film is simply not considered as good as The Dark Knight.

It doesn't have to be good, to make money. At least in it's opening weekend.

Buscemi wrote:It will fall short of $200 million five-day. The film is simply not considered as good as The Dark Knight.

If it falls short of $200 million with the actuals, which it probably will considering they are predicting under a 15% drop on Sunday, it will still get $199.5 million or so. And you need to realize that people, especially teens/young adults, love this movie. Apparently 91% of moviegoers say it is at least as good as the first one. Facebook statuses are going crazy, I can just feel the word of mouth. This is the most hype this movie has gotten, including before its release.