SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 6/12 - The Taking of Pelham 123, Imagine That

Wow. If you’d have told me three months ago that The Hangover, an R-rated comedy with NO big-name stars, would not only top $40 million in its first week, but surpass Pixar’s latest masterpiece Up in the process, well, I’d’ve said you just got clocked by Mike Tyson. Okay, maybe that’s a bad example… (grin)

Well, at least the warm, tingly sense of schadenfreude that I’ve gotten from the less-than-stellar debut from Will Ferrell latest yell-fest, Land of the Lost, is still there. I’ve been praying for years that he would finally become a relic, a fossil of comedy, and it looks like I’m starting to get my wish. Now, if only Sacha Baron Cohen would follow suit (shudder). But, thankfully, my having to walk on eggshells in talking about Bruno is still a month away. Today, I’m going to talk about two films coming out on the weekend of June 12th, and, if I may say, both show some promise; maybe not so much as a terrific pick for your slates, but at least as a moviegoer.

In 1974, a gritty crime drama hit theaters. It starred Walter Matthau as a grumpy police lieutenant named Victor Garber, whose blissfully uneventful routine is disrupted when a quartet of armed gunmen, led by a man calling himself only “Mr. Blue” (Jaws’ Robert Shaw) hijacks a New York City subway car, a threatens to kill hostages if his monetary demands aren’t met. The movie also starred Martin Balsam, Hector Elizondo and Jerry Stiller (yes, Ben’s dad), and it did very well both critically and financially.

Thirty-five years later, director Tony Scott has opted to remake the film, entitled The Taking of Pelham 1-2-3, and honestly, given the premise of this film, there are few directors out there that I would entrust to do a convincing job. Stepping in Matthau’s role is Denzel Washington himself (who worked with Scott in both Man on Fire and Déjà Vu), only this time, instead of being a cop, he plays an NYC subway dispatcher who has the misfortune of being on the clock when Mr. Blue (played here by John Travolta) hijacks the aforementioned subway car full of passengers. James Gandolfini and John Turturro also co-star.

Obviously, some liberties had to be taken in order to modernize the story into a post-9/11 society, with all of its technological advancements. But if I know Scott, the end result will be a taut, fast-paced thrill ride. Now, just how big a splash it will make at the ticket counters, that’s another matter.

Looking at the calendar, Pelham looks to be fairly well-paced. Apart from Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which opens two weeks hence, Pelham is the only actioner in the entire month of June. Star Trek's tidal wave has finally started to ebb, and since Terminator: Salvation never REALLY got off the ground, audiences are waiting for something to get their adrenaline rushing, and this should do the trick nicely.

Of course, I say that with more than a little trepidation; Denzel’s movies, while almost uniformly entertaining, don’t always translate to high numbers at the box office. Déjà Vu managed only $64 million in a winter release in 2006, and even though American Gansgter was able to make nearly double that amount for Tony’s director brother Ridley in winter 2007, the odds that The Taking of Pelham 1-2-3 will crack that venerable $100 million mark are, I would say, rather long.

I figure it will need at least $30 million to win its weekend, which is definitely possible, given that Up only dropped 35% from its first weekend, and The Hangover is likely to hold strong despite another comedy being released this week (but more on that in a moment). I’ll go out on a limb and says it pulls that $30 million – but only just – and takes the weekend crown by a nose. All in all, I predict nine Top 5 points, four PTA, a very respectable User Rating in the low-to-mid-7’s and roughly $80 million in total gross. For $18 in Ultimate ($17 in Box Office)… jeez, I just don’t know. This one skirts the line between “barely worth it” and “barely not”. I don’t know what more I can tell you, but if you think I’m lowballing my prediction, hey, go for it. You can rest assured that $7 of my hard-earned cash will be part of that OW total.

I’ve been racking my brains for the last two weeks, trying to remember the last non-animated Eddie Murphy film that I actually paid to see in theaters. And you know what? It’s been a LOOOOOONG time, folks. For the younger of you readers, take my word on this: there was NO BIGGER comedian in the 1980’s than Eddie Murphy. One of SNL's biggest success stories, he burst onto the big screen in 1982 in 48 HRS. (a classic), and following it up with other classic comedies and dramedies such as Trading Places, The Golden Child, Coming to America and, of course, the Beverly Hills Cop series. (That’s IT!! The totally unnecessary BHC3 was the last Murphy film I saw, way back in ’94. God, that’s a long time, innit??)

I don’t know what it was that started turning me off to Murphy… perhaps it was that, starting in about 1996, he started doing almost exclusively wacky kiddie comedies, animated features and the occasional really bad vehicle for his flagging stardom. Of course, he scored monstrous success with now-classic animated fare such as Mulan and the entire Shrek series, but Murphy’s live-action comedies just got too brainless and un-funny for me to waste my time. It seemed like every film he put out was just another excuse to dress up in ten separate costumes/make-up jobs, usually complete with trite ethnic stereotypes (The Nutty Professor films, Norbit, Meet Dave, etc.).

Where am I going with this? Well, I have never once doubted that the man has gobs and gobs of talent, and I’m happy that he is still able to do films that he wants to do (probably mostly for the benefit of his eight kids). But my sense of nostalgia is yearning for Murphy to do a role that reminds me of the days when kids were quoting Reggie Hammond and Axel Foley from memory.

I am certainly not deluded enough to think that Imagine That is the answer to my prayers, not at all, since, being a product of Paramount/Nickelodeon, it is most definitely aimed at kids and teens. But it is the first Murphy film in a very long time that has actually made me consider seeing it, and the fact that he’s put his collection of fat-suits and hairpieces away has a great deal to do with that. In this film, Murphy plays Evan, a financial executive whose career seems to have hit the skids.

Evan, in a lifetime of wheeling and dealing, has not had a lot of time to spend with his seven-year-old daughter Olivia (Yara Shahidi), and when he is invited into her imaginary world, he is amazed to find that her child-like fantasies start having real impact on not only his life but in the real world as well. Thomas Haden Church, Martin Sheen, and Bobb’E Thompson (the smart-mouthed kid from Role Models) co-star.

At the time I am writing this, there are only a couple of reviews available for this movie, but I am happy to say that they are both fairly positive. They both say pretty much what I was expecting to hear. “Innocuous but pleasant”. “Imagine That plays to (Murphy’s) strength as a performer, giving him solo bits that do not diminish the ensemble work, and pairs him with a child actor who gives as good as she gets.” And though I fully expect the feel-good, heart-warming, predictable happy ending, I wouldn’t have it any other way. The question is, will audiences?

Though Meet Dave flopped horribly last summer (and rightly so), I believe Imagine That could have enough gumption to do fairly well. The only problem is, it’s running up against some already-proven films (Up and The Hangover), and one week later, will be battling for moviegoers’ attention against not only Harold Ramis' latest directorial effort Year One, but Sandra Bullock’s latest rom-com The Proposal. Add all that up, and I have to conclude that the market is just too saturated with similar properties to do much more than “just okay”.

Even if it opens with, say, $20 million, that may not be good enough to open any higher than #4 (which is a shame). $8 in Ultimate is really too much to pay for only a couple of Top 5 points, probably no PTA, and an anybody’s-guess User Rating. The only category where it might pay dividends is in dollars earned, and I think that if the buzz is good and its competition falls flat, Imagine That could pull out $50 million before all is said and done. So if you want to hitch your wagon to Eddie Murphy’s horse in Box Office, $9 may be a decent investment. May.


My predictions for the weekend of June 12-14, 2009:

1. The Taking of Pelham 123 - $31 million
2. Up - $28 million
3. The Hangover - $25 million
4. Imagine That - $22 million
5. Land of the Lost - $9 million


Well, that will do it for me for this week. Please return next week, when I tackle another pair of films, both comedies, scheduled for release on June 19th: Year One, a stoner-type comedy set in the Stone Age (well, not nearly THAT long ago, but let’s just say it takes place at a time when “getting stoned” meant something completely different); and The Proposal, Sandra Bullock’s latest attempt to remind us that she’s still working, as she dons the role of an overbearing executive who tries to badger her beleaguered assistant (Ryan Reynolds) into marrying her so she can avoid deportation to Canada. Yeah, who’d want to go back there? (ducking snowballs)

Later!


ETA: Thanks, mfrendo. Now let's never speak of this again...

Hey Shryke, fyi, Judd Apatow's latest directorial effort is not Year One, but Funny People, which comes out later in summer. Year One is directed by Harold Ramis.

I've read that Travolta will not be out promoting the movie b/c they are still recovering from losing their son...do you guys think that will have any effect on the movies chances??? I personally don't see the movie taking Up or the Hangover down...

I don't think "The Hangover" will win this weekend because Up will have a smaller drop. But, I think either Up or Pelham will win this weekend. I can reallistically see Pelham coming in third and #1 and #2 from last weekend switching places.

I think Hangover is going to have an absolutely minuscule drop and will come in first or second, with Pelham third. I have not heard buzz around a film like I have about Hangover in so long. I feel like I'm the only person that didn't think it was the funniest thing ever put on film. People are coming out of the wood work to praise it. It is not going to drop hard, but neither will Up. They will duke it out for the top 2 spots again. Pelham just doesn't have the buzz.

Up will have a bigger drop than The Hangover, and it'll probably end up in 3rd.

1. The Hangover - $30 mil
2. Pelham 123 - $26 mil
3. Up - $24 mil
4. Imagine That - $16 mil
5. Land of The Lost - $8 mil


But 1-3 should be close either way.

i think Pelham,Hangover and Up will all finish within 5 mill of each other and it will be a complete crapshoot.

I hate to say it but I really don't see Pelham being a success. I don't think it breaks 30 million. I just have a gut feeling about this one. I was pretty high on it, but with the outstanding word of mouth coming from Hangover and Up, they are going to crush it like a runaway freight train. I love Denzel, but this will certainly be more Deja Vu than American Gangster. Both Up and Hangover will do over 30 million, Hangover will win, and Pelham will make about 20-25.

And if I'm wrong, oh well.

I agree with Geez, I dont see Pelham doing anything above $25M. Though I think that Up will actually take first, but Hangover will be right behind it.

No thread up yet for Pelham/Imagine That tracking... anyone have any news?