SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 4/24 - The Soloist, Fighting, Obsessed

We’re almost there, folks. Only a few scant weeks until the beginning of the summer season. I’m sure most of you have the release dates of your favorites marked on your calendars in a big red circle. Are you most psyched for the mega-action titles like Wolverine, Terminator 4 and Transformers 2? Or are you perhaps more juiced for the slightly-more-dramatic flair embodied in films like Angels & Demons, The Taking of Pelham 1-2-3, Harry Potter 6 and Public Enemies? Perhaps your cups of tea are the big-budget comedies, such as Night at the Museum 2, Year One and Funny People… or maybe, just maybe, you have the most love for the animated fare, such as Up, Ice Age 3 and Land of the Lost. (Yeah, I know that last one isn’t ACTUALLY a cartoon, but it might as well be, given the percentage of CGI in the film and a lead actor that’s only two steps up the ladder from a cartoon character himself.) But whatever your taste is, the summer has something for you.

The week BEFORE the summer season, I think you’ll agree, is not the most desirable of locations. You know for a fact that anything that’s put on that spot will be swallowed up in short order by the Big Dogs, so your only chance for success is to put out something with just enough base appeal to provide a reasonable alternative to the films with nine-digit budgets. Case in point: Baby Mama was able to push out (heh) nearly $60 million from this spot last year, while Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay earned a very respectable $38 million. Are there any diamonds in the rough to be had this year?

I hope you all appreciate the fact that the weekend that I’m about to talk about, the weekend beginning Friday, April 24th, features more titles available to Fantaversians than any single weekend in the history of this game. There are a total of ten (including two that are coming out on Wednesday, April 22), consisting of three wide-release films, six limited-release films and one that falls somewhere in between (that being Earth, which, since it is unlikely to be released in more than 1,000 theaters, I’ll leave for our newly-returned Frenchman to tackle).

A few months ago, a film called The Soloist was scheduled for a release in the midst of Oscar season. But suddenly and without warning, DreamWorks Pictures packed it up and moved it to late spring. I still don’t fully understand why, given that it’s two top billers are an Academy Award-nominated actor (Robert Downey Jr.) coming off the most successful year of his tumultuous career, and an Academy Award-winning actor (Jamie Foxx), who, though he’s been in kind of a holding pattern since his performance in Ray, is still a well-thought-of actor. The best explanation that I can think of was either Universal didn’t have the confidence to have it go toe-to-toe with films like Slumdog Millionaire, Frost/Nixon and Doubt, or they felt that it would be receive a bigger audience later on in the year. Neither decision really bolsters my confidence, I have to tell you.

Based on a true story, The Soloist features Downey Jr. as Steve Lopez, a columnist for the Los Angeles Times, who discovers by accident a homeless man named Nathaniel Ayers (Foxx), who apart from being schizophrenic, was once a musical prodigy who had to drop out of Juilliard because of his condition. Initially eying the story as a chance to boost his flagging career, Lopez eventually becomes friends with Ayers, and tries to draw the genius out of him for one last chance to play in front of a capacity crowd.

Directed by Joe Wright (Atonement), The Soloist is definitely one of those films that uplifts while it tugs at the heartstrings, mixing triumph and tragedy in equal portions. The cast is good, and it may bring in a decent crowd. But is it worth $10 on your Ultimate Slates? It just might be. Given its weak competition, I’d say it will finish absolutely no worse than #3 on its OW (and that’s only if Obsessed does gonzo numbers or 17 Again holds like a monster).

One of the notable qualities about summer is that it tends to have a lot fewer wide-release films. The consequence of this is that films can hang around in the Top 5 for a little bit longer than they would, say, in spring or fall, and The Soloist could end up with as many as seven or eight Top 5 points (but 3-5 are more likely), which would definitely make it worth that ten-spot. And for $8 in Box Office, if you think it can top $30 million in total receipts, go for it.

Rogue Pictures, in case you didn’t know, originally started as a label under Universal-owned Focus Features, specializing in gritty, low-budget drama, horror or comedy films. Some of their past releases include Shaun of the Dead, Unleashed, Fearless, The Hitcher, Hot Fuzz, Doomsday, The Strangers and this year’s The Unborn and Last House on the Left. Last year, Relativity Media acquired Rogue Pictures from Universal, but Universal is still stuck with the task of distributing all of the films that RP had in the can at that point. Up next for them is Fighting, an action film that seems to be very much in the vein of last spring’s Never Back Down, which nearly doubled its reported $20 million budget at the ticket counters.

In Fighting, Channing Tatum (Step Up) plays Shawn MacArthur, a young man who makes his dubious living hawking counterfeit merchandise on the streets of New York. A chance encounter with street-fighting coach Harvey Boarden (Terrence Howard, late of the Iron Man franchise) provides an opportunity for Shawn: the chance to make some big green by using his fighting skills in an underground fighting contest. As the road to riches gets tougher, the city’s criminal element horns in, and Shawn must summon up the will to overcome the obstacles thrown down before him.

It’s nothing you haven’t seen many times before. I doubt the ending is either. Still, there is a market for this sort of film, and always will be, and I think this film will do quite well for its price tag. It’ll only run you $6 in Ultimate leagues, which is not bad for a handful of Top 5, a so-so User Rating and between $25 and $35 million. It’s an even bigger bargain in Box Office, where it’ll only run you a five-spot. This could be a good one to have, folks.

Of course, if early tracking is to be believed, an even better pick would be Obsessed, a sexy film-noir Fatal Attraction-type thriller brought to us by Sony Pictures’ Screen Gems. This film is only $6 in Ultimate and $4 in Box Office, for a film that some sources have debuting with over $20 million in its first three days. I remain skeptical of those numbers, to be honest, but even if it’s only half that, it still may turn into a terrific #7 or #8 pick on your slate.

Directed by Steve Shill (who has directed many TV episodes for various HBO series, including The Sopranos, Rome and Deadwood), Obsessed stars Idris Elba (Daddy’s Little Girls, American Gangster) as Derek, an executive who is happily married to his wife Sharon (Beyonce Knowles). However, an uncomfortable situation arises when a beautiful temp named Lisa Sheridan (Heroes’ Ali Larter) starts working for Derek’s firm, and almost immediately set her sights on him.

I mentioned Fatal Attraction for good reason, and if you’ve seen the trailer, I’m sure you’d agree. Sexual tension, violence, balls-out nutso behavior ensue, leading to what I’m sure will be a brutal confrontation between the wife and the “other woman”. Bruce McGill, Jerry O’Connell and Christine Lahti also co-star.

All I can say about this is: pay attention to the tracking for this film in the days before it opens, folks. If there’s even a grain of truth in how this film is tracking, it’s a title you can’t afford to pass up. Just be wary, because it could easily turn out to be nothing but a mirage. Remember how Deception, starring Ewan McGregor and Hugh Jackman, was supposed to flourish in this exact spot last year? Well, to be blunt, it didn’t. It fizzled like a wet firecracker, not even making $5 million overall. Just be careful that Obsessed isn’t another she-wolf in ewe’s clothing.

My predictions for the weekend of April 24-26, 2009:

1. Obsessed - $15 million
2. The Soloist - $13 million
3. 17 Again - $12 million
4. Fighting - $11 million
5. State of Play - $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week... whoa, nelly. Next week, IT starts. The beginning of three-to-four straight months of adrenaline-filled, action-packed, CGI-up-the-wazoo films known as the summer season. I’ll begin, of course, with three films leading off the month of May: the obligatory Marvel summer superhero monster, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, where we delve into the past of comic-dom’s most mercurial mutant; Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, where Matthew McConaughey plays a misogynist who gets totally Scrooged about his past romantic life; and Battle For Terra, an animated film from the people at Lionsgate about a conflict between the big, bad human race and the peaceful race of aliens who must defend their world from our desperate clutches.

Later!

Normally I'd post my predictions here, but people are going to laugh.

Don't worry about that Boush, people always laugh

But if you are right, then it is you who will have the last laugh.

P.S. We know your feelings about Earth.

All right, here goes nothing.

1.Earth $20 million
2.Obsessed $15 million
3.The Soloist $9 million
4.17 Again $8.5 million
5.Fighting $8 million

Shryke sure hates him some Will Ferrell!


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Let's face it...in 3 years Beyonce and Jay-Z will rule the world.

I think Beyonce will be more like Jennifer Lopez in three years: people are sick of her, her albums start tanking and her films will go straight-to-video (yes, Ms. Lopez's movies are already going straight-to-video).

And I will be the first in line to move to Mars.

Cue Eugene Levy in Waiting For Guffman.

Buscemi wrote:

I think Beyonce will be more like Jennifer Lopez in three years: people are sick of her, her albums start tanking and her films will go straight-to-video (yes, Ms. Lopez's movies are already going straight-to-video).

I certainly hope you're right. I'm already sick of her.

Damn, I wouldn't wish Jennifer Lopez's current career on anyone.

1. Obsessed - $28 mil

2. 17 Again - $19 mil

3. The Soloist - $13 mil

4. Fighting - $10 mil

5. State of Play - $8 mil

28 million for Obsessed is more ridiculous than 20 million for Earth

Obsessed- $17 million
Earth $13 million
The Soloist $11 million
Fighting $7 million

Worst. Weekend. Ever.

1. 17 Again - 20M
2. Obessed - 19M
3. Fighting - 9M
4. The Soloist - 8M
5. State of Play- 5M

Earth - 3M

I would say that 19M and 20M for 17 again in its second weekend are crazier than the earth and obsessed predictions. but I think that you two might not realize that it'll be in its second weekend or just forgot or something

The winning slates in all the super leagues for April-June will be one with Fast and Furious and Obsessed on it.

I agree with that UDM. Those numbers for 17 again are crazier than either of those Earth and Obsessed predictions.

I am inclined to agree with you W.

geezer9687 wrote:I agree with that UDM. Those numbers for 17 again are crazier than either of those Earth and Obsessed predictions.

I am inclined to agree with you W.

I think I'm going to get at least one of the four IMs for that round for the first time. :)

geezer9687 wrote:28 million for Obsessed is more ridiculous than 20 million for Earth

Oh, we shall see, friendo...