SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 4/3 - Fast and Furious, Adventureland

Hard to believe we’re already three months into the year, isn’t it? Who could have predicted how topsy-turvy the first three months of 2009 would turn out to be? I mean, if I had predicted four months ago that Watchmen would end up being outgrossed, by a country mile, by both Paul Blart: Mall Cop AND Taken, I imagine the Fantaverse would have used its collective resources to give me the Christine Collins treatment. And they probably would’ve been right to do so. But it’s a funny business we all sit on the periphery of, isn’t it?

And the funniest thing of all is, we’re just getting started, people. Next week, we will be entering the month of April, which, along with January and September, are habitually the weakest months of the year… in terms of quality, anyway. Though after this past January, I’m not taking anything for granted, at least as far as box office prospects go.

I’ve only got two films to talk about today, both of which will be coming out on the weekend of April 3rd. The first is Fast and Furious (PG-13), which is the fourth film in the series following a group of friends and their souped-up automobiles. In 2001, The Fast and the Furious knocked out an impressive $207 million starring the core group of Paul Walker, Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodriguez and Jordana Brewster. Two years later, Walker went it alone in 2 Fast 2 Furious, which motored to $127 million in summer 2003. In June 2006, the reins were handed over to Lucas Black, who was able to lead The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift to $62 million.

On the upside, all four of the original stars are back for this fourth installment, which Wikipedia describes as an “interquel” (?!), taking place somewhere between the second and third chapters. The downside is, instead of a summer release (all three previous F&F films got June releases), this one was chosen to lead off April. I can’t pretend to understand why, though I’m sure someone somewhere has a reason. There are plenty of other low-grade action films to be had in April: Dragonball: Evolution, Crank: High Voltage and Fighting, for instance, and that’s not even including the powerhouses that May will bring. But Fast and Furious is the highest-profile, the highest-budget and has the biggest stars, so it will undoubtedly do the best.

I won’t go that far into the plot, you can probably glean that from the two-minute trailer… fast cars, sexy women, stunts, explosions, pretty much what you’d expect from a movie like this. If Knowing can open at over $20 million, it’s safe to say that Fast and Furious can pull at least $30 million… whether that’s good enough to zoom past the DreamWorks powerhouse Monsters vs. Aliens, however, remains to be seen. And one week later, it will run smack dab into Hannah Montana: The Movie and Observe and Report, which could muck with Fast and Furious's Top 5 count in the long run.

This title will run you $22 in the March Ultimate and $21 in the March Box Office leagues, which is kind of a gamble for a film that will give you anywhere from six to ten Top 5 points, a couple PTA, and a User Rating probably in the mid-sixes. How much this film makes in the end the biggest mystery… it could sputter around $55 million or roar right over the century mark. The possibility is there for a nine-digit figure, something that is not prevalent in April, but we’ll see if it plays out that way.

Also coming out on April 3rd is Adventureland (R), a coming-of-age teen romantic slacker love story (if that makes sense), that should appeal to the same demographic that made Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist a modest hit last fall. Taking place in the summer of 1987, it stars Jesse Eisenberg (The Squid and the Whale) as James Brennan, a recent college graduate who is desperately looking for a job.

Unable to find gainful employment anywhere else, he takes a job at a local amusement park called Adventureland, and thinks that it’s the perfect way to prepare himself for “the real world”. (Um, yeah…) Judging from the trailer, the film seems to be about the misadventures and travails of working that first menial job, complete with horrible customers, drudgery, and a wacky boss (Bill Hader). James also becomes infatuated with a girl named Em (Twilight’s Kristen Stewart) and homes that their burgeoning friendship ends up as something more.

Directed by Greg Mottola (who directed the huge hit Superbad two summer ago), this one has the potential to be a great sleeper hit. Though it is R-rated (for language, drug use and sexual reference), it should pull in a fair amount of the Apatow-comedy aficionados – not to mention a few Twilight fans looking to eye Stewart in something new – and that could help boost its chances, despite the absence of Michael Cera, Seth Rogen and McLovin’.

For $8 in Ultimate leagues ($6 in Box Office), this one could be well worth it. This is the kind of film that usually does quite well in its demographic, and it’s hard to believe that Adventureland will make less than $25 million. It could even go as high as $40 million, and pick up a few Top 5 points and a reasonable User Rating along the way. It certainly has more appeal (on paper anyway), then titles like Dragonball: Evolution or Fighting, which are similarly priced.

My predictions for the weekend of April 3-5, 2009:

1. Fast and Furious - $35 million
2. Monsters vs. Aliens - $33 million
3. Adventureland - $12 million
4. The Haunting in Connecticut - $7 million
5. Knowing - $6 million

Well, that will do it for this week. Next week… ugh, pray for me. I have to deal with: Hannah Montana: The Movie, the latest teen candy-pop film following hot on the heels of the Jonas Brothers debacle (which is now officially #1 on IMDb’s “Worst Movie of All Time” list); Dragonball: Evolution, a low-grade live-action flick based on (I presume) the Japanese animated series; and Observe and Report, the latest Seth Rogen vehicle where he plays a mall cop (think Paul Blart, only slightly thinner and much more pissed off) who uses the menace of a local flasher to stick it to the police force that repeatedly turned him down.

Later!

I still don't believe in Fast and Furious doing well since it may be one of the most meaningless sequels ever. I don't understand the appeal of yet another sequel to this dead franchise that was never good to being with. Also, the careers of the actors involved have been dead for some time.

My guess is a $25 million opening and a series of Watchmen-esque drops leading it to sputter to a $53 million finish.

As for Adventureland, Miramax seems to be dumping this one as it's only opening in 1,000 theatres. Also, I bet that the target audience (the Apatow fans and the Twi-hards) will be disappointed when they realize that it is not a Superbad-esque film or a chance to fawn over whatever guy Kristen Stewart is with. And I really haven't seen much of an advertising campaign for the film (other than a couple of posters and a trailer that seems more Garden State than Superbad).

My guess is a $4.5 million opening and a $15 million finish.

P.S.: Does anyone else think that Adventureland would look better had Jonah Hill been the lead over Jesse Eisenberg?

Only 1,000 theaters? Wow, that makes all the difference, doesn't it?

How is F&F not a sure bet to at least hit $90 M? Like it or not, the F&F franchise has a great record BO wise and with no stars the last one did $62 M. This one will pass $100 M.

I'm not so sure on Adventureland moneywise anymore. Didn't realize Miramax was distributing. They won't put it in enough theaters for top 5 and too much for PTA.

i agree with Shryke i think Fast and Furious will do 30-35 OW and finish with 100-120 Mill.

F&F will probably open anywhere between $20 mill and $30 mill, but I don't know how much it'll drop. It probably should've just stayed on its original June 5th release, and move Land of The Lost to April. That movie looks awful.

When does Mase usually release his numbers? Has he said anything about F&F yet?

Usually between midday and 4pm (Pacific time) on Thursday. I'll post it when I get home from work, unless someone else beats me to it.

I am LOVING this: of the 25-plus players who have entered the Ultimate HY tournament so far, at least one person has chosen all eight of this weekend's films.

Fast and Furious - 12 players
Adventureland - 6 players
Bart Got a Room - 4 players
Gigantic - 4 players
Alien Trespass - 4 players
The Escapist - 3 players
Paris 36 - 1 player
Sugar - 1 player

And there are still 19 players who haven't sent in their rosters yet. If any further proof be needed that the new pricing system WORKS, this is it! No films get left behind!

The new pricing list makes it a lot harder to choose our picks. I've changed my slates at least a bakers dozen (yes, 13) times. It's very frustrating and I've wanted to kick you guys in the nuts for it on many occasions.

I agree, it has been extremely difficult and, although i've sent my april slates in, I'm already second guessing them

Yeah, it took me a week to figure out my Ultimate slates. There's a few movies I'm SURE of and I made that my core of my three slates, then I filled in my smaller films.

Box office I'm still not sure of.I'm so unsure that I only spent $84 and am just going to wait from week to week to see what may/may not surprise.

brockman81 wrote:The new pricing list makes it a lot harder to choose our picks. I've changed my slates at least a bakers dozen (yes, 13) times. It's very frustrating and I've wanted to kick you guys in the nuts for it on many occasions.

Well, I'll take that as a compliment... and will start rummaging around for my iron codpiece, just in case...

i really didnt have that rough of a time making my slates except for deciding on which May Blockbuster i wanted to take. That took some time.

brockman81 wrote:The new pricing list makes it a lot harder to choose our picks. I've changed my slates at least a bakers dozen (yes, 13) times. It's very frustrating and I've wanted to kick you guys in the nuts for it on many occasions.

*lol* Glad we could cause problems this season!

Shrykespeare wrote:
My predictions for the weekend of April 3-5, 2009:

1. Fast and Furious - $35 million
2. Monsters vs. Aliens - $33 million
3. Adventureland - $12 million
4. The Haunting in Connecticut - $7 million
5. Knowing - $6 million

Wow, and I thought $35 million was being generous. Unbelievable. Was just about spot-on with MVA, though. (yay)

A_Roode wrote:

brockman81 wrote:The new pricing list makes it a lot harder to choose our picks. I've changed my slates at least a bakers dozen (yes, 13) times. It's very frustrating and I've wanted to kick you guys in the nuts for it on many occasions.

*lol* Glad we could cause problems this season!

yep i was also on the commitee of the problem starters this season glad we did some good some good work