SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 2/13: Friday the 13th, The International, Confessions of a Shopaholic

I don’t know if you guys have realized this, but as of this past Sunday, the final link to Fantasy Moguls has been cut. For you see, last weekend marked the end of the November-January season, which was, as most of you remember, the very last season that FM ended up starting before we got the news that it would be their last. Remember when we all had to hastily scramble around to find a new meeting place, cobble together a pricing list and keep the leagues going? It was a lot like trying to keep a campfire going in the middle of a hurricane, wasn’t it?

Special kudos, of course, go to BarcaRulz for his chutzpah and foresight in creating this forum for the rest of us Fantaversians to move to, a feat he accomplished pretty much single-handedly and practically overnight. Special thanks continue to go to our Forum Moderators, W (whose laptop, I understand, suffered an unfortunate mishap which has led to his prolonged absence), silversurfer19, geezer9687 and Buscemi, who have all practically lived here since it went up. You’ll almost never log into this place and not find at least ONE of them keeping watch. And we all feel better for it, don’t we?

So, now that the umbilical cord has finally been cut, and the New Fantaverse is well and truly on its own now, I return to the business at hand: bringing you the skinny on the latest wide releases. This week, I will be tackling the four-day weekend surrounding Valentine’s Day and President’s Day, a weekend that one would think to be a goldmine for romantic comedies and date films, but that has not been the case. Last year, for example, the four-day holiday weekend’s top three films were Jumper, The Spiderwick Chronicles and Step Up 2 the Streets. (That weekend’s only new rom-com, Definitely Maybe, bowed at a very unimpressive fifth place.) The year before that, Ghost Rider and Bridge to Terabithia far exceeded Music and Lyrics and Daddy’s Little Girls. Sensing a pattern?

From this coming weekend’s theater counts, it seems clear that the top spot will either go to Pink Panther 2 or He’s Just Not That Into You, but I sincerely doubt that either of those titles will pull in more than $25 million between February 6-8. And I find it just as hard to believe that Confessions of a Shopaholic (PG) will be able to find success where other films of its ilk haven’t. I mean, chick flicks are one thing, and many movies in that genre (not to mention their lead actresses) have great legs, but a film primarily about a girl who loves to shop? I think guys, in general, will be as excited about seeing this film as they would be accompanying their drooling shoe-sale-hungry girlfriends to the local department store.

Based on the novel by Sophie Kinsella and led by Australian director P.J. Hogan (My Best Friend’s Wedding), Confessions tells the story of Rebecca Bloomwood (Isla Fisher), who moves to New York City to break into the magazine business and indulge her addiction to shopping. And despite being up to her neck in debt, she somehow manages to become a financial advice columnist, a position that allows her to meet and fall for a wealthy businessman (Savage Grace's Hugh Dancy). John Goodman, Joan Cusack, John Lithgow, Kristin Scott Thomas and Lynn Redgrave also co-star (hmm, not bad…) along with Nicole Richie (uh, never mind).

From the trailer, there is definitely a “romantic” side to this film, but not nearly as much as with Confessions’ chief rom-com rival this weekend, He’s Just Not That Into You, which has a much more impressive cast, much more of a boys-vs.-girls-vs.-boys theme, and which will probably open to higher numbers. How high? Hard to say, but despite the lukewarm numbers that films of this nature tend to bring in on Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend, they tend to drop off sharply once the weekend is over.

I would envision not much more than $20 million for Confessions of a Shopaholic for its first three days, perhaps $25 for its first four, which will be good enough for #2 or #3. If it DOES end up having staying power, it may hang around in the Top 5 for a couple more weeks (only two movies with any real wide-spread appeal are coming out the two following weekends), which means it could pull in as much as $50 or $60 million before it’s run is done. Seven or eight Top 5 points could be in store, perhaps two or three PTA, and a User Rating around 7.0. Is it worth the $15 in Ultimate that it will run you? I say not. It’s priced exactly the same as He’s Just Not That Into You, which has the benefit of a one-week head start, along with, as I said, a better cast and a more seasoned director. Neither would I spend $12 on it in Box Office, where it is actually the MORE expensive of the two.

What might give Confessions a run for its money for that #2 spot is The International (R), a film that I compared (rather broadly) to last February’s Vantage Point due to its fast-paced action and political intrigue. However, unlike Vantage Point, this film is saddled with an R rating (I’m guessing due to intense violence, strong language and sexual situations), which could definitely hurt its chances.

In this story, gritty British gun-toting action star Clive Owen plays Interpol agent Louis Salinger, who is determined to bring one of the world’s most powerful financial institutions, The International Bank of Business and Credit, to justice, convinced that they are guilty of such illegal activities as money laundering, arms dealing, and even destabilizing the governments of third-world countries for their own benefit. Joining him is Manhattan A.D.A. Eleanor Whitman (Naomi Watts), and their investigation ends up taking them all over the world, ultimately culminating in becoming targets of the IBBC themselves.

I wonder why Sony/Columbia, when it came to the editing stage, decided not to tweak this film just enough to earn a PG-13 rating, which would have considerably broadened its audience. As it stands, it’s looking at a soft opening, no matter how well-shot or pulse-pounding it may be. Something else to consider: this film will open the Berlin International (no pun intended, I hope) Film Festival on February 5th, so you may do well to pay close attention to any early reviews coming out of Germany prior to its American release.

Maybe it’s just bad luck, but it seems that most of my Top Ten Most Anticipated films of Early 2009 are running into walls. Bride Wars opened to less-than-anticipated numbers, Push is being given minimal distribution on 2/6, and now this. (This had BETTER NOT be the case with Watchmen and Monsters vs. Aliens, that’s for damn skippy.)

I want to recommend this film, I really do, but I can’t. Well, as a filmgoer, I would, but as a game player, no. $19 for Ultimate Leagues is looking way too high right now, and $15 in Box Office isn’t looking that much better. The International might be able to wring out $20-$25 million over the four-day weekend, and could possibly peek its head over the $60 million mark overall, but that may be pushing it. The User Rating should be pretty good, better than most of the January fare, but this is one of those picks that screams “extreme caution”. It might meet your expectations, but it’s doubtful that it will exceed them.

And if there is one film on the February roster that WILL exceed expectations, it’s looking like that film will be Friday the 13th (R), the latest attempt to reboot a long-dormant classic horror franchise, which began all the way back in 1980. The epic saga of the hockey-mask-wearing, machete-carrying silent slasher named Jason Voorhees spawned no less than TEN sequels, over which time he journeyed to Manhattan, took on Freddy Krueger and was resurrected on a space station in the future. But now, we’re going right back to the beginning, it seems, at the hands of Marcus Nispel (Pathfinder), along with producer… Michael Bay?!? Wow, it’s a funny business…

If you’ve seen even ONE of the many many Friday the 13th movies, it’s not much of a secret what this film is going to bring. Gore, mayhem, and the bloody dismemberments of many less-than-intelligent teenagers whose hormones override their good sense and go where “those terrible murders occurred”. You know all those horror movie clichés that we complain about so readily? Well, folks, this is the franchise that STARTED them.

But in spite of all this, Friday the 13th has history on its side. In 2003, when the Texas Chainsaw Massacre franchise was rebooted, it saw a $28 million opening weekend and a total take of $80 million. When Rob Zombie resurrected the Halloween series in 2007, it opened with a very respectable $26 million weekend, though it did drop off tremendously in the following weeks, finishing with only $58 million. (Though that was enough, apparently, to warrant a sequel, which will be out later this year.) And from what I hear, Friday the 13th is tracking quite well. This may be one of the few instances where the R rating actually HELPS a horror flick (and one would expect no less with a Jason movie), and it’s entirely possible that it could slash and slice its way to a four-day total of $40 million.

That this film will win it’s opening weekend is becoming more obvious by the day. Given that only Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail will be going up against it the following week, followed by the Jonas Brothers concert movie the week after that, and given that there are no more real horror offerings for a solid month, this could definitely be one of the best picks of the season. It’s priced at only $13 in Ultimate (yeah, folks, that was on purpose) and $11 in Box Office. It could pull in ten or more Top 5 points, and though its User Rating may be on the low side, that’s more than enough reason to pick it. (PTA may be a problem, given that are a whole host of hopefuls in that category opening the same weekend, like Gomorrah, New York I Love You and Under the Sea 3-D.)

My predictions for the FOUR-day weekend of February 13-16:

1. Friday the 13th - $39 million
2. The International - $23 million
3. Confessions of a Shopaholic - $22 million
4. He's Just Not That Into You - $16 million
5. Pink Panther 2 - $15 million


Props Department: congratulations to codeslinger, who wins the final Regulars Ultimate league under the Fantasy Moguls umbrella, “Scarface: The Regulars”, decimating the field en route to a whopping 16.5-point win. Well done, sir! Congrats also go to our Creator, BarcaRulz, who held on for a $9 million victory over Ron_Burgundy in the November Box Office league “Herculean Efforts”. Way to go!

As of this moment, barely half of the entrants for the 2009 Super Leagues have turned in slates for Round Two, which begins, again, THIS WEEKEND. Please get your slates in ASAP if you haven’t already!

Well, that will do it for this week. Next week, I’ll have a relatively easy job, with only two movies to critique. Well, one-and-a-half, if my perceptions mean anything at all: acclaimed African-American director Tyler Perry brings his wisecracking granny Madea to the big screen for the third time, in Madea Goes to Jail (say hi to Ernest!); and then we have Fired Up!, a lame-looking teen sex comedy about two star football players who decide to ditch sports and join the thongs, erm, I mean throngs of gorgeous girls at cheerleading camp instead.

Later!

Sometimes, I scared that people are afraid to post because I'm on watch. Don't worry, all is good.

And I noticed that you aren't listing any second-week titles on your President's Day weekend predictions? You think they will all flop?

Meanwhile, I see for the February 13th four-day weekend:

Friday the 13th $40 million (the horror buffs will be all over this one and the last time Jason was on-screen, the film opened to $35 million)
Confessions Of A Shopaholic $25 million (I understand your doubts but when you've got Jerry Bruckheimer on your side, you almost always have a hit)
Pink Panther 2 $18 million
The International $14 million (I believe that the combination of the R-rating, Clive Owen not being a really big name, Tom Twkyer not having had much success with English-language films and the fact that the film's been sitting on the shelf for a while will hurt it. Also, Taken has probably satisfied audiences' hunger for a foreign intrigue thriller)
He's Just Not That Into You $13.5 million

You know, you're right, Buscemi! GAAAAHHH! How did I miss that?

Okay, I'm going to have to make changes....

Let's compare me to Mason.

Me:
1. Friday the 13th - $39 million
2. The International - $23 million
3. Confessions of a Shopaholic - $22 million
4. He's Just Not That Into You - $16 million
5. Pink Panther 2 - $15 million

Mason:
1. Friday the 13th - $34.1M
2. Confessions of a Shopaholic - $25M
3. He’s Just Not That Into You - $21.25M
4. Taken - $16.1M
5. Coraline - $14.1M
6. The International - $12.6M

Seems we're fairly close on Friday and Confessions, slightly apart on He's Just Not (I think dualing chick movies may hurt), and miles apart on International. I certainly didn't expect Taken to have the legs it's having or Coraline to have the opening it did. But $12.6 million for The International for FOUR days? Damn, did I miss the boat on that one, and that's two weekends in a row where I severely overestimated a high-priced title.

Good thing we've implemented pricing by committee, isn't it?

I think it's good that you mispriced some things. God knows FM did. It makes the game more fun.

Agreed! I call for more errors in the future!

Just wait till it's your turn to help pricing, bucko. No more excuses

I'm just going to blame any of the really crazy prices on Transformers2. It'll be all his fault, *lol*