In the Mood for Indies : Christmas season

Well, guys, here I go again. The Pen name “Indie Jones” is gone (now I go my my real virtual name... wink), the “Dances with the Arthouse”column is deceased, but I shall still be here, now and then, to help you sort out those tiny arthouse films you are not necessarily aware of. Let me tell, though, that I no longer have a fantastic editor correcting my English errors, so in advance, pardon my French (grin).
I will start by getting a look at all those December films I could not deal with in Dances with the Arthouse. There are quite a few, so excuse me for not developping that much (plus, you guys must all know those ones by now).

The Wrestler (Dec. 17)
Ultimate leagues : $23 – BO leagues : $4
After the painful gestation (and disappointing results, both artistically and financially) of The Fountain, Darren Aronofsky made the most drastic move possible, by stripping down his style to a pure social drama that reminds more of Europan cinema than American. A small, cheap film that offers Mickey Rourke what looks to be his best screen performance since... since... well maybe since ever. The film was awarded the Golden Lion at the prestigious Venice Film Festival, and had the festial rules allowed the winner to cumulate prizes, Mickey Rourke would have also grabbed Best Actor.
This is a film that will collect extatic reviews, great word of mouth, a high IMDb User Rating, and strong PTA numbers, as Fox Searchlight is going to push it for Oscar glory, if only for Mickey Rourke, who’s clearly the runner-up to Sean Penn’s Harvey Milk for Best Actor. Expect the BO to be surprisingly good for such a hard drama, possibly between $15 and $20 million, and the PTA numbers to go along the lines of Slumdog Millionaire.

Waltz with Bashir (Dec. 25)
Ultimate : $16 BO : $2
Now that The Class got pushed back to the end of January, Waltz with Bashir clearly has become the film with the best potential to become a PTA juggernaut. An animated Israeli documentary will probably never go wide, but its festival career, reputation, reviews, and inevitable awards, will make it a constant target for cinephile. It is impossible, given its release date and profile, to avoid the comparison with last year’s Persepolis. The French animated film ended up collecting 21 PTA points and $4.4 million. That was astounding, and of course I’d rather say Waltz with Bashir probably won’t do as good. But it also means that it could.

Last Chance Harvey (Dec. 25)
Ultimate : $6 - BO : $4
I hold nothing against light-hearted romantic comedies with good actors. But seeing a film like Last Chance Harvey, which will undoubtedly be forgotten in a few months (unless the very revealing trailer is completely misleading), be released at the height of the Christmas season, hoping to make it look like it has plenty of award potential, well, I find that disappointing. It kind of reminds me of The Bucket Listfrom last year, which sold us a dramedy with two great actors, but in the end turned out forgettable and really not Oscar-worthy. I was shocked to see the names of Dustin Hoffman and Emma Thompson among the Golden Globe nominees.
Don’t forget, though, that The Bucket List was in fact a great success at the box-office, grabbing several PTA points and $93 million at the box-office (!!). Now, Last Chance Harvey will not grab those numbers, far from it, but the Overture Films release looks nice enough to interest the older moviegoer, and its pricetag is very affordable.

Revolutionary Road (Dec. 26)
Ultimate : $24 BO : $4
Those past few weeks, everyone “in the biz” seems to be convinced this is the Oscar-calibered film that will fail to collect prizes, and ultimately, possibly, disappoint. The Golden Globes nominations just proved that it might not be wise to count Revolutionary Road out after all. Nominated for Best Film, Best director, Best Actor and Best Actress (in the drama category), Revolutionary Road only needed that sort of recognition a few days before its theatrical launch. It adds a bit of gravitas to a film that already has a strong pedigree with Sam Mendes behind the camera and the “legendary” movie couple Kate Winslet / Leonardo DiCaprio in front of it.
$24 in Ultimate might still be a little too expensive, but I don’t think the film will fail. It will provide plenty of PTA points if Paramount Vantage adopts a platform release and solid box-office results thanks to its stellar cast (if the film ultimately gets nominated for Oscars, it could get $30 or 40 million).

The Secret of the Grain (Dec. 26)
Ultimate : $2 - BO : $2
In UK, this one was released under the title "Couscous". It is far from being the most talked-about film in this end-of-the-year season. Yet, last year, in France, it was the most talked-about French film of the period. Three years earlier, the director, Abdel Kechiche, had made a tiny feature (L’Esquive)which won the Best Film Cesar (the French Oscars) at the general surprise. So last year, The Secret of the Grain was quite expected, moreso when it won five (five !!!) prizes at the Venice Film Festival. When it was released in theaters in December 2007, it was a success, attracting 1 million people... and in February won four Cesar Awards, Best Film, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay and Best Young Actress.
If American cinephiles become aware of those facts, I am pretty sure they will want to discover this drama taking place in Marseille. Plus it was recently nominated in the Best Foreign Film category at the Independent Spirit Awards. The competition is fierce, but I think The Secret of the Grain has enough to attract US film buffs and collect a few PTA points once the big shots open wide. For $2 in Ultimate leagues, that’s almost a steal.

Defiance (Dec. 31)
Ultimate : $19 - BO : $6
Paramount Vantage wisely decided to push back Defiance’s release date, from the beginning of December to its end. Edward Zwick’s films are rarely critics darlings, but they still get solid enough reviews to comfort the public in seeing them, generally being an interesting balance between strong themes and Hollywood scales, like in his last two, Blood Diamond and The Last Samurai. This time is no different, as the man tackles the resistance, during WWII, of three Jewish brothers against the Nazis, organizing a big operation of survival and defiance in the forests of Belarus. The three brothers are played by Daniel “007” Craig, Liev Schreiber and Jamie Bell (with these three actors, I don’t even need to know the storyline, I am already in the theater waiting for the film to begin). As always with Zwick, reviews should not be fantastic, but good enough, and the ambition of the film and James Bond will do the rest, to make it a strong film in limited release first, collecting PTA points (ten seem possible), and then expanding to interesting Box-office numbers, possibly earning anything above $40 million if the reception is good and Craig’s attraction power extends beyond 007.

Good (Dec 31)
Ultimate : $3 - BO : $2
Speaking of Nazis, the same weekend will see the release of another drama sharing a common menacing shadow. Only this one takes place at the heart of it, in Germany, at the birth of it all, in the thirties. Viggo Mortensen portrays a litterary professor who sees the book he wrote being praised by the recently elected government and used for propaganda, for a big scheme that will materialize a few years later. This is a much more delicate subject than Defiance, handled by an Austria-born Brasilian director named Vicente Amorim. Jason Isaacs and Mark Strong round out the cast. Shown in Toronto and Rome film festivals, Good has not raised a strong buzz, but it will no doubt attract curiosity, even if only for Mortensen’s presence onscreen, the actor being very popular among arthouse lovers who see him more as the Academy-Award nominated actor from David Cronenberg’s movies than from The Lord of the Rings.
Being distributed by THINKFilm, Good will probably stay a small arthouse film, but it is currently scheduled for a 2 theaters release in Los Angeles and New York, and that is small enough, with such a subject matter and actor, to display strong PTA numbers comes opening weekend. For $3 in Ultimate leagues, that’s a good deal.

Nice to see the column back Chien, and I hadn't had the fortune of knowing very much about The Secret Of The Grain. Looks a very exciting possibility now.

silversurfer19 wrote:Nice to see the column back Chien, and I hadn't had the fortune of knowing very much about The Secret Of The Grain. Looks a very exciting possibility now.

Exactly what I was thinking... That and me thinking that Good may be a good pick was goodly reinforced by someone that is good at picking good PTA films.

Good to see Indie Jones` column is back, im not sure what PTA winners id pick without the Arthouse king (thats u!), I really hope Defiance get 10 PTA, with that and 40 mil and hopefully some top 5 points it should be a good all rounder. I didnt know Good was opening in just 2 cinemas, its basically a lock for PTA, Viggo is always good, but what will top in PTA that weekend?

I was wondering what we should do with this column considering it appears Chien will not be returning. Does anyone feel bold enough to be able to provide any support regarding forthcoming indies until/if Chien ever returns, or do we just close down this column? I find them a vital part of this game, and my PTA scores have most certainly suffered in the columns' absence. Anyone got any ideas?

I don't think we need to be hasty.

Well, it has been almost two months. It's not a problem, I'm sure he has far more important things to do than this site (frankly, I wish I did..), I just really enjoyed this column and would appreciate any help I can get.

Its not that he has more important things to do, its that he has had internet problems*

Source- Shryke

P.S. Not having Chien's column has really made me realize how valuable this one really is. Its tough to guage just how valuable those indie films will be. It actually makes the game more competitive to not have this column around. But I am sure that he will be back.

Even then, I'm not proposing we get rid of Chien's columns, just that someone else looks after them until he returns. I'm starting to feel this may fall on me... Unless anyone else is a clued in on foreign and indie movies, I guess I may propose that I will look after Chien's columns until his return. I'd have to do a little more research that I currently do, but I guess I could find a couple of hours a week. Would anyone else rather bear the burden though? Or does anyone think someone else would be more suited to the position?

I'd offer to write it, but I am really not qualified. Like I mentioned, its really tough for me to know how well indie films will really do, especially weeks out. You kinda need to just wait for theater counts and see how well the major releases are tracking to know whether or not you can grab some PTA somewhere.

Yeah, I know indies are not really your thing Geez, we need someone who watches a lot of indies. I would have thought maybe someone like six, if he was up to giving up his time, while I would also give it a go if there is no-one else at hand as I generally have quite a lot of interest in foreign language movies.

I don't really think you have to actually want to see the films to be able to write about how well they will do in this game. Actually, it might be better to have someone who is completely objective about the films write about their potential, as to not be swayed by their own desire to see a particular film. Case-in-point: Marley and Me. I thought the film had a 50 million dollar cap, because it would have been my last choice of a film that came out during the holiday season. I think what you really need to be effective about indie films is release platforms and reviews.

Good point. I was merely stating that by having a vested interest in the genre a columnist is just more aware of what a film is, rather than just what they have read on BOM or IMDB. Chien was able to provide this, as well as having a good understanding of release patterns. If someone feels they are up to the challenge of addressing these issues, I would welcome it.

He should be back soon, I've been having Facebook conversations with him over the past few days -- and it doesn't seem like he's had any problems on his end.

So this is what a ghost town looks like, eh?

Don't worry, all, Chien will be back. He, like Mr. I, has had a busy work schedule. Plus, he's just moved to a new apartment, and doesn't yet have his Internet hooked up. But rest assured, he, too, will be back very soon.