W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

I would take Aliens over Shorts, now that Shorts has that shitty release date stuck at the end of the summer.

I see Shorts performing similar to Star Wars: The Clone Wars from last year. Same studio, same release date, same genre.

7/24 G-Force $15/14/10 (Stock: = - worth it/good pick) All-star cast. Disney flick. Talking animals. Pretty good bet to hit $80 M if not a little more. I think some parents will see Zack Galifanakis while their kids are watching SpongeBob. Their kids say "Can we go see that?" and after seeing The Bearded One (from that film they saw and laughed their ass off at) they go, "Sure." That scenerio will happen more than once. Anyways, for $15/14 its priced pretty well (a few dollars low probably). I think this one will hit between a 5x-6x multiplier (based on $15). You could do much worse.
The Ugly Truth $12/12/8 (Stock: = worth the price/decent pick) This one is bouncing around the exchange this week from $62 to $72 (meaning it'll make that much in 4 weeks). Honestly, the overall gross for it will probably be between those two numbers, making it a 5-6x multiplier. The R rating could actually hurt the film and it could do a little less. If you wanted to pick one this weekend, I'd go with the talking animals.
Orphan $8/7/4 (Stock: = - Don't touch it) I'm predicting a 3x multiplier here $20-25M. Not a great pick for anything, even bankrupts. Doesn't look scary. Doesn't look mainstream. Doesn't look anything, really. Stay away!

7/31 Funny People $22/22/9 (Stock = UP Worth it/Good Pick) Good WOM could push this into great pick territory, but I think it'll be under $150 M and over $110 M. So, at least a 5x. Sandler, Apatow, Rogen, everyone else usually would equal a giant film, but here, like I said last week, it just doesn't look like their regular schtick. It looks more serious, and I don't know if the public is ready for it.
Aliens in the Attic $7/7/5 (Stock slightly down Almost Worth it, not much more) If you have $7 to spend maybe look into this one because I can't single out a good pick in the $7 or less price range at this point. Otherwise, look elsewhere. This will probably be a 4-5x multiplier.

8/7 G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra $25/25 (Stock = UP decent pick-good pick) This film could have used a really big named actor for it (Dennis Quaid isn't even in the previews). But it'll technically be a blockbuster. How big? Who knows. I'd say it'll probably be between $130-160, which will be a 5-6x.
Julie and Julia $13/12 (stock = financial failure-Decent Pick) I wouldn't touch this film because at this point in time it looks the best it'll do is a 5x, but it could do much worse financally.
The Perfect Getaway $5/5 (stock = flop) Until you see a trailer on the television, don't touch this one.

8/14 District 9 $9/7 (great pick - must have pick) This is going to be a fairly large film with a fairly small price (right now its tracking at around $80 M on HSX). You may NEED this film. Can you really pass up a possible 10x? This thing man surpass $100 M at the rate its going.
Time Traveler's Wife $10/8 (Decent pick) This could fail, or it could do well. All in all, I think its decently priced. I would easily go with D9 instead.
Bandslam $7/6 (decent pick) Summit is trying to get even more out of New Moon by announcing that this will have a special New Moon trailer with it. That could push it over the 5x hump, but probably not. I had to fit this into a slate instead of Beth Cooper and I think I'll be happy with it for that purpose. Any other purpose is probably invalid.
Taking Woodstock $5/4 (don't touch it) Critical success, probably not financial success though.
The Goods $5/4 (don't touch it) Too crowded. Looks funny, though.
Ponyo $3/3 (probably not a good pick) You should consider this on BO slates for two reasons. #1: Its released by Disney with a star cast. #2 Its only $3 and everything else priced this way doesn't look good at all.

Ponyo could be a sleeper!

D9 making $100M?

You can never go wrong with Peter Jackson or R-rated aliens.

Also, Taking Woodstock opens on the 28th. It was pushed back a while ago.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:D9 making $100M?
:lol!:

It was supposed to say "This thing may pass $100 M at the rate its going," but I mistyped. At the beginning of the summer if I would have said, "Which is more possible, District 9 making $100 M or The Hangover making $250 M?" what would you have said?

Just saying its possible. I have no doubt it'll make over $40 M, which is a 5x. So, you can't go wrong with a floor that low (if that's your belief too). I'd put it at at least a 10% chance of $100 M and there's very few films I'd say that about in the next 3 months, most of which are priced twice as high.

7/31 Funny People $22/22/9 (Stock = UP Worth it/Good Pick) HSX has it at $93 M, but it think it'll go a bit higher. Chuck and Larry had an OW of $34 M, had some decent holds, and ended up at $120 M overall. This should be able to get some decent holds, but have a higher OW. Expect $110-130 M.
Aliens in the Attic $7/7/5 (Stock down probably shouldn't take it) I don't think this will be a horrible failure, meaning a great bankrupts pick, but you probably should look into something else if you're thinking about this one. Its hard to tell how kids will react to something, but this doesn't look like one that anyone would be interested in.

8/7 G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra $29/25/25 (Stock = decent pick-good pick) If you want a safe pick, this is probably it. This seems to be a formulatic way to just pass $100 M to me. Will have a higher OW and be less liked than Live Free or Die Hard, which BOMOJO compares it too. I expect the same overall numbers $134 M. Maybe a little less. HSX has it at a 4 week of $135, which would push it over $150 easily, but I'm not sure about that.
Julie and Julia $14/13/12 (stock = DOWN Less than 5x pick) I don't know how the average person is going to take a serious cooking film. It sounds great to me, but I have seen no advertising as of yet and I'm not sure of it. This one keeps bouncing up and down in my head, though so I'm not completely sure what to think. I'll throw $50 M out there, which is higher than No Reservations two years ago right at this time of year.
The Perfect Getaway $5/5/5 (stock = flop) Still seems like a decent sized flop (for our prices). No one knows what it is, so how can it do well?

8/14 District 9 $12/9/7 (Stock UP great pick - must have pick) This is probably the first film you should put on your slates this time around. If its not the first one, make room for it. It's got great advertising and a great trailer. It makes you feel like its an underground thing kind of like when you're at a King's Island/Six Flags roller coaster and they make you feel like you're there by dimming lights, making it look like a warehouse or whatnot, and then show you videos of whatever the ride is based on. They made this thing an experiance rather than just a movie. I feel that the floor for this thing is $80 M (and that's if the thing completely sucks) after that, the sky is the limit.
Time Traveler's Wife $11/10/8 (Stock = Decent pick) Nothing has happened in the past week that says this is going to be a complete success, but $40-50 M can be gotten.
Bandslam $8/7/6 (Stock DOWN - bad pick) Same deal as last time. It looks bad, but its got a New Moon exclusive with it. That will definately push up the gross, but to a point where it makes this a decent option? I'm thinking no.
The Goods $5/4 (Stock = don't touch it) Looks funny. Could be an underground success and it definately has a cast, but it doesn't look mainstream, and I think that'll kill it.
Ponyo $4/3/3 (Stock UP for the price, you could do worse...) I said last week that everything similarly priced looks awful (financially) so, if you have the $3 or $4 left (and only that amound) go ahead and take the would-be princess saver.

8/21 Inglourious Basterds $19/18/13 (find something else) A war film by QT? I''m there, but how many non cinephiles will be? Pitt certainly helps, but his star power isn't always good for $100 M nowadays and QT isn/t either. This one will go $80 and if that's good enough for you, then take it.
Shorts $9/8/8 (maybe...) Its no Spy Kids, but could be worth the price. With the exception of District 9 and maybe a couple of others, August-October looks priced pretty well.
Post Grad $5/5/5 (Don't even think about it!) This one looks bad no matter what you're talking about. Avoid it.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:D9 making $100M?

What do you think now Banks?

well... gwarsh. It looks pretty decent for my predictions. I royally screwed up Funny People by having a change of heart at the last minute. Aliens I nailed as well as Perfect, G.I. Joe, was close on Julie. I kicked District 9 in the nuts, probably nailed the Time Traveler's Wife . Bandslam, Goods, Ponyo I did well with. Post Grad I got right (though it was obvious. And, I think I'll hit IB pretty good and I may have went a little long on Shorts.

All in all, I'm pretty gosh durned happy with my predictions. What is that like 90+%?

You were wrong on Julie and Julia, its legs are amazing. It is going to hit 5x even at its most expensive. Shorts is also a failure.

Overall very good though. If people followed this, they probably wouldn't be disappointed.

Did anyone actually take The Goods, Bandslam or Post Grad

Me and Shryke were locked into Bandslam a long time ago. We took 3 very high priced films and had to have a piece of crap fill in. We chose the wrong piece of crap.

I remember seeing post grad on some slates, they may have changed it though.

The Goods was taken by many as they thought it was a breakout hit. I didn't think so. Just as I don't think Extract will break out.

Overall... thanks.