W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

A few posts up are the films for this weekend. Let me recap:
Transformers = take it or be annihilated!
My Sisters Keeper = take it and be annihilated!
What a difference one word can make

Here's the rest:

7/1 Ice Age: DOTD $36/34/$32 (STOCK = DOWN almost worth it/worth the price) This will be big, but I think its the kind of film that you can ride to the next round of the super leagues, but won't actually win you a league. If you want to win a league, you need to pull some picks out of your butt this time around.
Public Enemies $24/25/$24 (Stock = Don't touch it-Worth the Price) Box office wise, I don't think this will completely pan out. Its got the makings of a great film and it does have great stars, and it does have a great IMDB rating--but this is strictly BO we're talking here. Westerns (which this basically is) don't usually make a lot of money. There is also practically no marketing for this film. I would spend less on Bruno if you were looking in this price range.

7/10 Bruno $22/19/17 (STOCK = slightly down. worth the price - great pick) This movie will be a good pick. Whether you can fit it into your slate is another matter to be pondered. $22 may or may not be too high, I'm not quite sure at the moment, but I'm sure it'll hit at least a 5x at $19 and $17.
I Love You, Beth Cooper $6/6/8 (STOCK = don't touch it - decent, though nowhere near good, pick) I went to see Year One, saw the preview and it looked almost watchable. Then I saw Year One and I have to say it didn't help my feelings for this film. I wouldn't touch it unless there's a major TV campaign plus tons of buzz in the next couple of weeks. I don't see either happening.

7/17 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $44/40/32 (should probably take it/must have pick) If you don't have this film, you will probably not win... That's pretty simple. I wish I would have listened to myself.
(500) Days of Summer $5/4/5 (don't touch it - good pick) I could see this bombing terribly. I could also see it hitting $50 M and being a 10x multiplier. Who knows? Right now, I say its in the don't touch it catagory.

Can't we get this moved to the advice column...anybody? I didn't even know this was on here...it's certainly helpful and would be much easier to find if we moved it to the advice column. Please?

You'll have to send a PM to Barca because I'm not moving it on my own accord... Don't wanna tick anyone off...

Sorry, I didn't have the internet last week. Remember these are all discussed in purely Box Office.

7/10 Bruno $22/19/17 (STOCK: UP - good pick/great pick) Bruno is not a no brainer, but you could do a lot worse than taking it. A 5x is almost assured, the only thing is whether you'll be able to fit it into your slate when Transformers and Potter can be put on the same slate two months in a row. I've heard this has as much buzz as The Hangover, but it really doesn't and it won't have near the WOM to keep its legs moving. At least think about grabbing Bruno.
I Love You, Beth Cooper $6/6/8 (STOCK: DOWN - don't touch it) I don't love this film as a pick. Hayden Panettiere is not a movie star. This is not American Pie. There is no buzz. Its a sinking ship. Throw it overboard.

7/17 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $44/40/32 (Stock: = - should probably take it/must have pick) This is the last obvious pick for a long time. Probably the last $200 M grossing film for a long while. Take it and don't look back. If it hits $220 (and it will easily) it'll be a 5x in any league.
(500) Days of Summer $5/4/5 (Stock: DOWN - don't touch it unless its limited, probably not even then) Doesn't look good for this one. The only hope this has is limited release plus great word of mouth plus going wide at just the right time. I have a feeling it's too quirky for the average American audience and it has no stars, no explosions, nothing that the average person goes to see a film in the theaters for. Probably financial dud (according to our pricing system).

7/24 G-Force $15/14/10 (Stock: UP - worth it/good pick) This reminds me of another Disney film released about nine months previous to this. It starred talking animals and almost grossed nine figures. I'm talking about Beverly Hills Chihuahua. It was a great Box Office pick, but I think it was somewhere around $8, though I can't remember specifically. If this does the same business (it could do slightly more) it'll be a good pick. To hit my criteria from good to great, it'll have to come closer to $150, which won't happen as of now. If you've got $15 to spare, this one probably won't dissapoint.
The Ugly Truth $12/12/8 (Stock: UP worth the price/decent pick) Don't expect "The Proposal" numbers. Some of its audience will be satisfied with it and not come to this one. This should, however, be good for $60-75 M.
Orphan $8/7/4 (Stock: = - Don't touch it) I know I've said "Don't bet against Horror," but stay away from this one please. At $6 you may be able to justify it in its cutoff league, but I'd go with "They Came From Upstairs" in that case. It just looks like a dud and is tracking like one.

7/31 Funny People $22/22/9 (Worth it/Good Pick) This one seems like a lock for $100 M (or very close to it) but as of now I don't get the feeling that is has a ceiling much higher. Seems a little sad for a Summer Blockbuster.
Aliens in the Attic $7/7/5 (Worth it, not much more) This seems like one of those films that will hit the $30-40 M range for some reason. Lets see if the stock rises or falls before we call it a stud or a dud.

7/17 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $44/40/32 (Stock: UP - must have pick) This is a must have on any slate that wants to win. There's a chance that you could win in Ultimate without it, but that's doubtful and this thread is about Box Office only. Take it or Voldemort will scar you for life... Ok, he'll scar your slates for 3 months...
(500) Days of Summer $5/4/5 (Stock: DOWN - don't touch it) I wouldn't take this in Box Office whatsoever. It seems to be a critical success, but I highly doubt it will be a success in the mainstream.

7/24 G-Force $15/14/10 (Stock: = - worth it/good pick) Beverly Hills Chihua hua was 2/3 the price ( I believe it was $10) and I think this will do about the same but it won't be as good a pick since its priced higher. I don't think you have to worry about the Nic Cage curse since he's animated in this one, also he kind of broke out of that slump with Knowing (which sucked, but was a good financial decision).
The Ugly Truth $12/12/8 (Stock: = worth the price/decent pick) I don't know about this one, it could completely fail, but I doubt it. It just won't break out because of the R rating and because I don't see guys going to this like other R-rated romantic comedies like There's Something About Mary, Knocked Up, etc and it doesn't have the backing of a Sex in the City. $60-70 M for this one.
Orphan $8/7/4 (Stock: = - Don't touch it) With the glut of horror films opening soon, my "bet on horror" advice has ran its course. Please orphan it on all of your slates.

7/31 Funny People $22/22/9 (Stock = UP Worth it/Good Pick) This one WILL hit $100 M, but how far over that will it go? I'm guessing it stays well below $150, though it wouldn't surprise me to get close to that number. It just seems too sad to be HUGE.
Aliens in the Attic $7/7/5 (Stock = Worth it, not much more) Still seems like a $30-40 Millionaire to me. Nickelodeon could push it up $10 million or so or it could completely keel over, but I think this prediction is decently accurate at this point in time...

8/7 G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra $25/25 (decent pick-good pick) This will be a large over 5x film and is the last one of the summer that I think can really break out. It could be one of the top 10 grossing films of the year, who knows? Right now I see it at $150 overall, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit anywhere between Tomb of the Dragon Emperor and Wolverine ($102 M - $179 M).
Julie and Julia $13/12 (financial failure-Decent Pick) Small Mama Mia. Its counterprogrammed with G.I. Joe, so at least part of its success will depend on how high that opens. This has the biggest range of any film out there in my opinion. It could do almost nothing in box office (I haven't seen any advertising for it at all) or it could do $100 M. We'll have to wait and see.
The Perfect Getaway $5/5 (flop) Right now this has flop written all over it. No advertising whatsoever and tons of stuff to choose from in the next couple of weeks... No way am I touching this right now.

Apparently you don't remember the failure of Imagine That, W. Aliens In The Attic is basically Imagine That but with no stars and awful CGI. And no Ronnie from Role Models stealing the few scenes he's in.

From a female's perspective regarding the upcoming chick flicks, my gf is way more excited about Julie and Julia than about The Ugly Truth, which she doesn't even want to see.

My lady has been planning our trip to see 'The Ugly Truth' for months now. I've spent the same amount of time trying to dream up excuses. Unfortunately I launched 'Operation Food Poison' a week to early. Curses!

I think The Ugly Truth would've done well to stay in its original April release date. It's sandwiched between Harry Potter and Funny People, not to mention Julie & Julia. Funny People will take its legs right from under it.

I think J&J is for the older crowd though, I've asked a handful of some of my friends who are girls and none of them know who Julia Childs is. I didn't either actually, until I heard about the movie.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:I think The Ugly Truth would've done well to stay in its original April release date. It's sandwiched between Harry Potter and Funny People, not to mention Julie & Julia. Funny People will take its legs right from under it.

I think J&J is for the older crowd though, I've asked a handful of some of my friends who are girls and none of them know who Julia Childs is. I didn't either actually, until I heard about the movie.

I think Julie and Julia is for an older demographic... 30's and on. I remember seeing Julia Childs on TV and I'm only 5 years older. This is one of those films that I know I'll be seeing, though it doesn't seem like my type of film. I just want to see how Meryl does with it (I don't think I've ever said that before). But... Let's just say I like food. I'm actually going to a place called the Weber Grill tonight.

Aliens in the Attic has a good advertising campaign (so did Imagine That, I know) and right now I don't see Nick failing twice in a row. I know many turds that have been polished up and salvaged financially... Plus $30-40 M isn't really that much for a wide release to make.

The Ugly Truth I believe will be decent financially, though not a real breakout. None of these films am I really saying "Grab THIS!"

Aliens In The Attic isn't Nickelodeon. It's Fox and they have been dumping a lot of films lately. This is obviously no exception. Children will be more interested in seeing Harry Potter and guinea pigs in 3-D rather then Ashley Tisdale meets Crazy Frog.

Lol that was a pretty good description of Aliens in the Attic Boush.

Buscemi wrote:Aliens In The Attic isn't Nickelodeon. It's Fox and they have been dumping a lot of films lately. This is obviously no exception. Children will be more interested in seeing Harry Potter and guinea pigs in 3-D rather then Ashley Tisdale meets Crazy Frog.

All I know is its on every cartoon channel right after we learn that Spongebob will get round pants on Friday (today)... Its cheap, I never said to take it, and its not a stretch of any imagination for it to hit $30 M...

If I were a betting man, I'd bet more heavily on Shorts than Aliens, even with Matrix Doris Roberts.

Shrykespeare wrote:If I were a betting man, I'd bet more heavily on Shorts than Aliens, even with Matrix Doris Roberts.

I'm not really betting on either of them...