W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

The Proposal will be huge of course. But I just noticed that the only other rom-com of the summer (The Ugly Truth) is rated R. What the hell is Sony thinking on that one?

Better Box office pick for $2 in the April-June season, Moon or Whatever Works?

I want to say Moon. I actually was at the theater Saturday and heard some (real, as opposed to moviefreaks) talking about it. I think Whatever Works will still be extremely limited when the end of the season comes, but really small films like this are a guess since you really don't know how many theaters they'll be in during which weeks.

I see The Time Traveler's Wife getting crushed at the box office. There's probably a reason why it was delayed from Christmas into the dregs of August.

I'd say District 9 and Bandslam are better picks for that weekend.

From what I've read recently, this tells me that The Time Traveler's Wife will be a mega hit.

im with Keyser highly sucessful book could be a big hit.

Actually, I was going with the fact that Buscemi thinks it will tank a smy reasoning, but the book thing is pretty good too

As far as BO goes, I think all the movies of 8/14 should be ignored. They'll all fail to varying degrees, and I think G.I. Joe, Julie and Julia, and Funny People will still hold 1-3 that weekend.

Last week I got 1.5/2 right. Pelham was fairly predictable Box Office-wise. No matter if it hit first or third, it'd be close to being a worthwhile pick, i.e. one that won't destroy your slate, thought not a good pick by any stretch of the imagination. I nailed that one. On Imagine that, I said it would be the same decent pick, but to look at other options in its price range. You could give me 1/2, but I'm being optomistic. Here's this week's picks:

6/19 Year One $17/24/11 (STOCK = Don't touch it - barely worth it) I still think it won't go much past $80 M at the high end, I'm thinking more like $60 M. I only see this as a viable option for April-June leagues and even there I went with something else. Other than that, stay away. You are still insane if you shell out $24 for it.
The Proposal $12/12/8 (STOOCK DOWN: barely worth the price - good pick) I'm not as high as I was on this pick, but I'm still leaning to "good" (last week it was "great". I don't think this one will be a Hangover-style slate breaker, but I don't think you can lose with this pick. I look for worst case scenerios that break even and I believe this is one of those.
Whatever Works $5/4/2 (STOCK DOWN: don't touch it - almost worth it) The best case scenerio of this film is to make $15-20 M overall. The worst case is $2 M. I just don't see the upside.

6/26 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $44/43/20 (STOCK =: you're crazy not to take it) Take this film all the way to the bank. If you only take one blockbuster in BO, this has to be it. The first one hit $320 M and that will be the floor for this one. If WOM is good, ceiling is just over $400 M. Best cutoff bargain since you got two weeks of TDK for $19. Just grab it.
My Sister's Keeper $8/8/4 (STOCK = don't touch it - don't touch it) Blah, blah, blah. Should have been straight to DVD. Blah, Cameron Diaz won't save it... Blah.

7/1 Ice Age: DOTD $34/$32 (STOCK = UP worth the price - good pick) It'll be a good pick, may even fight Potter. I'm thinking of grabbing it instead of Harry. I'll know after some research in the next couple of weeks.
Public Enemies $25/$24 (Stock = Don't touch it-Worth the Price) Looks good, but you can find better picks in this price range. It may not even hit $100 M, and even if it does, the best case scenerio right now is that it barely covers its cost. I don't like to work that way.

7/10 Bruno $19/17 (worth the price - great pick) Looks like a $100 M grosser to me. If it does, and it will, its worth it. Just how worth it will depend on WOM. It could hit $140-150 like some other comedies this year, but the closer to the $100-120 M range, the more probable.
I Love You, Beth Cooper $6/8 (don't touch it - decent, though nowhere near good, pick) There's not many decent looking picks in this price range. Let's pray that the reason you're taking this film is because you want to fit The Hangover, Potter, and Transformers 2 on the same slate. There's not really any other reason for it.

That's it for this week, I'll be fitting Potter and Transformers on next time for one week only reunion from a couple of years ago.

Whoops! Forgot to put "6/19 Editon" on there. Maybe that's why....

As usual great work W. I am currently crafting my slate for July-Sep and that helped a lot for what July films to take. Thanks W!

6/26 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $44/43/20 (STOCK =: you're crazy not to take it) Take this film all the way to the bank. If you only take one blockbuster in BO, this has to be it. The first one hit $320 M and that will be the floor for this one. If WOM is good, ceiling is just over $400 M. Best cutoff bargain since you got two weeks of TDK for $19. Just grab it.
My Sister's Keeper $8/8/4 (STOCK = don't touch it - don't touch it) Blah, blah, blah. Should have been straight to DVD. Blah, Cameron Diaz won't save it... Blah.

Just cut and pasting because nothing changed about this weekend... You still need to take Transformers and still need to drop (if possible) My Sister's Keeper. I just wanted to get this weekend done before tomorrow.

I'm hearing My Sister's Keeper might do better than expected. It's supposed to be a great book.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:I'm hearing My Sister's Keeper might do better than expected. It's supposed to be a great book.

I'm in the book industry and we've been selling the bejesus out of it. Scary numbers big.

Will that translate into big screen success? I honestly don't know but I'm starting to lean away from it. The ending might be something that drives people away (in either the book or the movie which they apparently changed).

We've been selling the hell out 'The Time Traveller's Wife' for the last two years too...

Does the book have seventeen different plots going on at once?