Ice age and Public enemies tracking

well since no one else started it

First numbers from the weekend warrior

1. Ice age 48.5 77/5day 170 total
2. Transformers 46.8
3. Public Enemies 28.6 45/5day 90-100 total
4. Hangover 11.9
5. Proposal 11.0

doesnt that seem alittle low to you guys

Yeah, it really does for Ice Age at least. Probably Transformers as well.

It all seems a little low.

Up has been out long enough for Ice Age to make a strong debut. The second Ice Age opened in march with about 68million. Thats one of the stongest animated starts outside of Shrek, Nemo, the Incredibles, and The Simpsons. The 4th of July is on a friday so even it takes a hit, it still has Saturday and Sunday to recover. I think a 5 Day approaching 90million could happen for this. And a final gross of 170 mill seems low with nothing aimed at younger kids until G Force. 225mill total seems more likely.

Since there isnt any tracking out for Public Enemies its hard to say what will happen. Im inclined to think that this could open around 35million for 3day and a 50 million 5 day. But the reviews for this are pretty mixed, and unlike Ice Age and Transformers this is one where the reviews might actually matter. But it is the first thing aimed at adults since Pelham. So im going stick with my probably too high guess.


Transformers 2 has yet to show signs of a huge drop off coming, we can be more sure as the week moves on. So if it keeps up its monster pace it should see a drop of around 55% to about 50 million. The drop would be much higher had it been a 3 day opening but it early launch should soften the weekend to weekend decline.


The Proposal didnt hold all that well but given that it was in the face of Transformers it should hold much better this weekend.

The Hangover should also hold a lot better this weekend and it needs to before Bruno steals some thunder next weekend.

My Predictions

1. Ice Age 65.5 (90.4 5 day)
2. Transformers 49.8
3. Public Enemies 34.2 (51.3 5 day)
4. The Proposal 12.9
5. The Hangover 11.5

Im usually too high but I like to be optimistic

That could put Transformers between 290 and 300 by the end of its second weekend. Anyone still not seeing it reaching 400 with those kinds of numbers?

Keyser Soze wrote:That could put Transformers between 290 and 300 by the end of its second weekend. Anyone still not seeing it reaching 400 with those kinds of numbers?

It's entirely possible. At the end of its second weekend, Wolverine had made $130M and seems to have topped out at $177M.

Using the same %'s, that would have Transformers top out at 408.

Well, we'll see how many people are still going to see Transformers once HP6 comes out.

I think Ice age and Public Enemies are going to cause that number to come down. Its going to lose quite a few repeat viewings.

Oh, it's Johnny Depp and extinct talking animals that will keep people from seeing Transformers a second time...Here I was thinking seeing it the first time would keep them from seeing it a second time.

Well, That will keep me from seeing it a second time.... but I'm talking about the majority public who seemed to actually like the movie.

True enough...I mean, I can't fully judge because I won't see it as I turned off the first one before the 45 minute mark, but just basing on what i've heard. There was actually this pretty funny reveiw of it on yahoo where this guy lists his top 10 Transformers2 questions, and I could've only read that and it would keep me from seeing it even if i was interested...The words Robot Heaven are all I need to hear to boycott a movie.

Even if people liked it, I think it was hard to sit through more than once.

It's only been out for a week but Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen already has a DVD release date. The scheduled date is November 10th.

DHD estimates

wed
iceage 14
transformers 11
public enemies 8

3 day
Ice age 45 just behind transformers. 60/5day
public enemies 30 45/5day

Keyser Soze wrote:That could put Transformers between 290 and 300 by the end of its second weekend. Anyone still not seeing it reaching 400 with those kinds of numbers?

Dude, they added Puerto Rican numbers to the Wednesday box office to get the 5-day over $200 million. All this has to do is get to $390 million and Paramount will push it over.

Also good but not great for the openers.