RS Tracking December 12 and Future

notfabio


DAY THE EARTH: High 50's (yes that is almost a 20 million uptick from where it was at for them last week)
NOTHING LIKE THE HOLIDAYS: Sub 5 million
DELGO: Sub 4 million

FUTURE:
BEDTIME: Low 50's (4 day)
SEVEN POUNDS: High Teens (4 day)
TALE OF DESPEREAUX: Low Double Digit Millions
CURIOUS: Low 20's (4 day)
YES MAN: Slightly Hight 20's


Curious case! Bedtime Stories! TDSS!

Most of those were what I was expecting except for TDESS which I though would be languishing in the early 40s. Bedtime Stories will play like a traditional family Xmas movie and have great legs. Expect a 3x multiple at least. Same with Benjamin Button too, I think it will have great holds and probably aim for $85m. If Seven Pounds no.s don't rise soon though I think it's in trouble. Even with Will Smith in it the movie hasn't cracked $20m in tracking. I doubt it will have the legs to reach the $140m+ some are predicting.

Nothing Like The Holidays will make more than $5 million. Hell, it could be this year's This Christmas. I'd say $8-10 million.

Buscemi wrote:Nothing Like The Holidays will make more than $5 million. Hell, it could be this year's This Christmas. I'd say $8-10 million.

I very highly doubt it. Four Christmasses will be the break out Xmas film of the year, this will slip away into oblivion. A shame, a decent cast.

Niche films have been doing well this year. I think Buscemi is right. It won't it 10M because of it's theatre count but it'll will do better then what some are expecting.

MTC tracking from notfabio

DELGO: 2
NOTHING LIKE THE HOLIDAYS: 4
DAY THE EARTH STOOD STILL: 40

DAY is exactly where RS had it before the huge uptick.

I'd personally have to think Nothing is at least somewhat low, Earth probably is a bit as well.

It took forever for Nothing Like the Holidays to get past 0.0% for Opening Weekend on BOM's user poll. I see a big flop for this.

And TDTESS is doing great on BOM's user poll. Like $60-70 million. I guess I'll predict $45 million, with holiday legs.

Bedtime Stories will have way over a 3 multiple from the 3-day. Night at the Museum had an 8.3 multiple. And Pursuit of Happyness had a 5.3 multiple.

Never pay attention to Box Office Mojo tracking numbers. The only movies those people ever watch are comic book movies and the latest guy movies. Half the time the top tracking film there is a holdover or a film that only attracts male audiences.

Buscemi wrote:Never pay attention to Box Office Mojo tracking numbers. The only movies those people ever watch are comic book movies and the latest guy movies. Half the time the top tracking film there is a holdover or a film that only attracts male audiences.

Completely true BOM is bs. Punisher:War Zone had high tracking on BOM and we all know how that panned out.

But it also showed Iron Man opening to $100 million and TDK breaking the opening weekend record. It works if you understand that family movies and chick flicks are lowered on it.

I thought I would give everyone an update that BOM isn't listing. According to their website, Wendy and Lucy is opening in 1 theater in NYC Wednesday and then 1 theater in LA on Friday. 2 theaters for the weekend but it has huuuuge competition with all the limited releases and TDTESS for PTA.

If Steve Mason has any numbers going up anywhere, I hope that we can get a link to it.

Shrykespeare wrote:If Steve Mason has any numbers going up anywhere, I hope that we can get a link to it.

Just checked Steve's Facebook and Twitter pages, and there have been no updates there. His last post on Twitter was a mention about his final update on the FM site with a link to it.

I find that The Box Office Guru is usually more or less correct, he is the closest thing to Mason me thinks. He can be found at either RT or boxofficeguru.com

Boy, I got pussywhipped.

Box Office Report is usually pretty accurate, but he predicted pretty poorly this weekend.