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SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 10/16 - Where the Wild Things Are, Law Abiding Citizen, The Stepfather

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SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 10/16 - Where the Wild Things Are, Law Abiding Citizen, The Stepfather Empty SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 10/16 - Where the Wild Things Are, Law Abiding Citizen, The Stepfather

Post by Shrykespeare Tue Oct 13, 2009 2:36 am

Wow. Is Paranormal Activity the next Blair Witch Project or what?! Who would have thought that this little film, driven almost exclusively by Internet marketing, hype and word-of-mouth, could have come out of nowhere and broken the record for highest-grossing weekend of all time by a film showing in less than 200 theaters? (For the record, it made over $7 million in only 160 theaters, for a PTA of around $44,000. That is freakin’ impressive, people. If only its touch-and-go release date had made it possible to be included in the game, my god, the possibilities….)

We are plowing our way through fall, and are now only four weeks away from the start of the winter season, which is usually heralded by the first big-budget November release (in this case, Disney’s 3D and IMAX motion-capture animated adaptation of A Christmas Carol). Little by little, we creep towards 2010, and along the way, we’ll see the usual mixture of late-year dollar grabbers and Oscar bait. But we’re not there yet, so let’s take a look at what’s at hand; specifically, the weekend of October 16th.

One of the best-known children’s books of all time is Where the Wild Things Are, written and illustrated by Maurice Sendak and published in 1963. (I myself remember reading it as a child, but that was back in the Ford Administration, so forgive me for having to use Wikipedia to re-familiarize myself with the plot.) The most distinctive feature of the book was its cover and illustrations, which showcased some very large, scary-looking horned creatures.

In this story (which, unbelievably, consists of only nine lines of actual text), a boy named Max is sent to bed without supper by his mother for misbehaving. In his room, he lets his imagination take him to a faraway place, the land of the “Wild Things”, whose fearsome inhabitants anoint Max their king because of his ability to “stare into their yellow eyes without blinking”. To turn this story into a full-scale big-screen adaptation is an ambitious endeavor, to be sure, given how much more story would have to be added. But if you’re familiar with Spike Jonze’s previous directorial outings (Adaptation, Being John Malkovich), you’ll know that a lack of ambition is not one of his weaknesses.

It took a very long time for Where the Wild Things Are to finally make its way to theaters - nearly 20 years, in fact - mostly because author Sendak (who is now 81) couldn’t “connect” with any of the directors who sought the project. Jonze eventually won the battle, but disagreements with Universal forced him to take the film to Warner Bros., who wanted to do an animated version, but THAT was eventually scrapped. Filming finally started on the live-action version in 2006, with the role of Max going to a young actor named, appropriately, Max Records. (Having Tom Hanks as a co-producer may have greased some wheels, who knows). The film also stars Mark Ruffalo and Catherine Keener, as well as the vocal talents of Forest Whitaker, James Gandolfini, Catherine O’Hara, Chris Cooper and Lauren Ambrose, who lend their voices to slightly-less-scary-looking-than-the-book-cover versions of the “wild things” (who, as an interesting side note, were created by the Jim Henson Creature Shop… any of these monsters remind you of Sweetums?)

SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 10/16 - Where the Wild Things Are, Law Abiding Citizen, The Stepfather Sweetu10

This has been, from my first hearing about this film up until now, one of the hardest ones to get a bead on. All the ingredients for a major hit would seem to be there – well-known and much-beloved story, a lot of critical acclaim, and a decent cast. But like I said, so much story had to be added, and even with Sendak’s blessing, will kids and adults truly appreciate the effort? Will they applaud the use of actual, physical, non-CGI monsters instead of computer-generated ones?

If I have to parallel Wild Things with another recent film, it would have to be Bridge to Terabithia. That film, too, dealt with the wonders of a child’s imagination, as well as triumph, sorrow, loneliness and the bonds of friendship. That film was able to earn $82.2 million in spring 2007, and I think a final figure around that exact number is a comfortable predication for Wild Things. In all, I predict ten Top 5 points, five PTA, a User Rating of at least 7.6, and an OW of $27 million en route to about $80 million total.

As a pick for your slate, well… there are some big films coming out in November (Christmas Carol, 2012, New Moon). You could go with two of those and perhaps one mid-range film like Wild Things. My advice… if you’ve already picked Zombieland or Couples Retreat, I’d save your money for November. On the other hand, if you passed on those two titles, you’re already running behind the pack, so you should probably pick this one now, or you’ll be putting all your eggs in one basket later on. For $17 in Ultimate ($18 in Box Office), you could very well end up with a pre-Thanksgiving turkey, but I doubt it.

Last October, the only films that could ostensibly be labeled action films were Max Payne and RockNRolla, neither of which failed to ignite with audiences. This year, that distinction goes to Law Abiding Citizen, the latest outing from director F. Gary Gray (The Negotiator, The Italian Job). This R-rated thriller looks to borrow, quite adeptly, from the themes of Taken, Death Wish and even the Saw series to given audiences perhaps the last pure adrenaline-stoked thrill ride of the year.

During a particularly brutal home invasion, retired spy Clyde Shelton (the very busy Gerard Butler) is beaten severely and his wife and young daughter are killed. The bad guys are caught, but a D.A. named Nick Rice (Jamie Foxx) gives them immunity from prosecution in order to send a criminal much higher up the food chain to Death Row. Feeling understandably cheated by the entire judicial system, Clyde returns a few years later to avenge his family and wreak havoc on the people who failed him, including lawyers, judges and city officials. Of course, Shelton is, like Taken’s Bryan Mills, VERY good at what he does, so when the killings continue even after Clyde is captured and imprisoned, Rice and the other officials are left to wonder just what it will take to stop him before an “accident” befalls them.

I personally like Gerard Butler. He became almost an icon in 300, one of my favorite films of 2006. Unfortunately, he hasn’t done one film since then that I’ve really enjoyed, and I’m hoping that this will break his current streak of mediocrity. Citizen looks to be a taut, tense, enjoyable thriller, and it will benefit from the fact that it’s only 108 minutes long (nearly thirty minutes fewer than the enjoyable but overlong Negotiator), and Butler seems to be simultaneously channeling Jigsaw, Hannibal Lecter and the Joker to give Shelton his most multilayered character in quite some time.

R-rated action films do have the potential to do well; just look at Inglourious Basterds. Of course, Gray does not have one-third the flair or following than QT does, but even so, I think for its price ($9 in both leagues), Citizen may hold its own. I figure it will need to do at least $20 million to be assured of beating Couples Retreat's second week, but given that it’s only bowing in around 2,700 theaters, I’m not sure it has that in it. I can optimistically only forecast five Top 5 points, a 6.8 User Rating and $50 million for Law Abiding Citizen, which makes it a “pass” for me in Ultimate Leagues. It’s a much better fit for Box Office, IMHO.

Finally, we have The Stepfather, yet another remake of a 1980’s horror flick. The original 1987 version, if you remember, starred Lost’s Terry O’Quinn as a truly disturbed man who marries widows and divorcees with children in the hopes of finding the perfect family… that is, until they fail to succumb to his domineering control-freak personality, after which he kills them and moves on.

Twenty-two years later, Prom Night director Nelson McCormick tries to go 2-for-2 on the reboot front, casting Nip/Tuck's Dylan Walsh as the titular character, Sela Ward as the latest potential victim of his charms, and Gossip Girl's Penn Badgley as the dutiful son who suspects that his new stepdad is not the Ned Flanders clone he appears to be… especially when a neighbor who thinks she saw him on America’s Most Wanted turns up dead shortly thereafter. Yeah, brilliant deduction, Sherlock!

The aforementioned Prom Night did just okay in a spring release last year ($43.8 million), but that was helped by a good release date where horror films weren’t stacked ass-to-elbow. In the last two months, Whiteout ($10 million), Pandorum ($9 million), Jennifer’s Body ($15 million) and Sorority Row ($11 million) have all flamed out spectacularly. Zombieland has been the only horror hit in many a month, but that film’s critical acclaim and comedic elements set it apart from by-the-numbers remakes like this. Plus, I have to believe that even the diluted fanbase of the Saw series, which will get its sixth entry in that series next week, would rather pay to see the latest twisted remnants of Jigsaw’s legacy than the incredibly-average-looking Stepfather.

Given how minute the percentage drops have been for Zombieland and especially Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs (which now has 17 Top 5 points, the most for any film since The Hangover's 18), I’m not entirely sure The Stepfather will even have the mustard to crack the Top 5 at all. I predict $8 million on its OW, $16 million overall (tops), which no other contributing factors in any other categories. I would really not recommend this title unless you’re down to your last $5, in which case, it’s either this, December’s Everybody’s Fine, or an array of limited-release films.


My predictions for the weekend of October 16-18, 2009:

1. Where the Wild Things Are - $27 million
2. Couples Retreat - $18 million
3. Law Abiding Citizen - $16 million
4. Zombieland - $10 million
5. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs - $10 million
6. The Stepfather - $8 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, my plate fills up again with four more brand new titles scheduled for wide release on October 23rd, including: Saw VI, the latest entry in the extremely durable serial-killer franchise; Astro Boy, an futuristic animated film about a scientist who constructs a super-powered automaton to replace the son he lost; Amelia, a historical biopic about Amelia Earhart, the most famous aviatrix of all time, starring double-Oscar-winner Hilary Swank in the title role; and The Vampire’s Assistant, a horredy (yes, that word’s back again) John C. Reilly, Salma Hayek and Josh Hutcherson.

Later!
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Post by Shrykespeare Wed Oct 14, 2009 11:17 am

Law Abiding Citizen just looks so cool. I hope it lives up to my expectation.
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Post by Buscemi Wed Oct 14, 2009 11:52 am

Here's something I noticed though it's probably not substanial: Where The Wild Things Are will not be running on IMAX in the St. Louis market. Instead, the only theatre that runs IMAX feature films in that area (the Ronnies 20) will be playing Paranormal Activity blown-up to IMAX size.

However, most other big cities will be running the film on IMAX (Kansas City has three IMAX theatres playing it).

Edit: my best guess is that Wehrenberg is having a booking dispute with IMAX. This Is It is not listed as running in IMAX either.
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Post by BanksIsDaFuture Thu Oct 15, 2009 9:00 pm

I can't see The Stepfather doing over $5M. No promotion, no real stars, and people will probably opt for Paranormal Activity or wait for Saw VI.
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Post by transformers2 Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:59 am

Shrykespeare wrote:Law Abiding Citizen just looks so cool. I hope it lives up to my expectation.


It has an 8.0 IMDB user rating right now so that could be a good sign.
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Post by Shrykespeare Sun Oct 18, 2009 10:03 pm


My predictions for the weekend of October 16-18, 2009:

1. Where the Wild Things Are - $27 million
2. Couples Retreat - $18 million
3. Law Abiding Citizen - $16 million
4. Zombieland - $10 million
5. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs - $10 million
6. The Stepfather - $8 million


Actual Results (BOM Sunday Estimates)

1. Where the Wild Things Are - $32.74M (5 points)
2. Law Abiding Citizen - $21.25M (4 points)
Paranormal Activity - $20.16M
3. Couples Retreat - $17.95M (3 points)
4. The Stepfather - $12.3M (2 points)
5. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs - $8.1M (1 point)

So, terrific numbers all around. Didn't expect that! And that is now 18 Points for Cloudy, which ties it for 2nd place (with Up and Hangover) for most Top 5 points for a film this year. (The winner: Taken with 22!)


PTA estimates:

Paranormal Activity - $26,530
The Maid - $18,400
1. An Education - $14,000 (5 points)
2. A Serious Man - $10,488 (4 points)
3. Where the Wild Things Are - $8,693 (3 points)
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $7,353 (2 points)
Visual Acoustics - $7,050
5. Couples Retreat - $5,965 (1 point)

New York I Love You - $3,126
Black Dynamite - $2,014

So that is back-to-back wins for An Education, and A Serious Man is now up to 13 PTA points, the most since The Hurt Locker got 15. (#1 for the year: Under The Sea 3D's 24 points.)
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Post by W Sun Oct 18, 2009 11:08 pm

You're just full of all sorts of information today. Smile

What is it with the ultra high user ratings for the past few months? District 9, IB, Zombieland, Paranormal was up there for a while, and now Wild Things has an 8.5 (but not on the top 250 yet). It just seems like most things are 7.0, 7.5, or in the 8s. Is this some kind of "golden age" with more great films than usual or is there some tainting going on with the ratings?
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Post by BanksIsDaFuture Sun Oct 18, 2009 11:39 pm

I just think movies that internet fans really like, they rated super high.

Then again, I think this may go down as one of the greatest fall/winter movie season ever. It's definitely making up for a mostly lackluster summer.
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Post by geezer9687 Mon Oct 19, 2009 12:00 am

It happens a lot, but they usually fall back to earth.
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Post by J-Man Mon Oct 19, 2009 12:52 am

I think IMDB scores will drop over time, but even if they don't it doesn't mean that we're in some kind of movie Golden Age, it just means that IMDB voters don't watch older movies and vote on them, most voters just stick to the big finds. Eventually I bet we'll have a top 250 where the difference between 1 and 250 rating will be really small.

On a side note: Shit! I just realized I forgot to drop Black Dynamite from a slate. I meant to do that on Thursday, so that'll dull my final full year slate.

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Post by mfrendo Mon Oct 19, 2009 1:37 am

With the exception of Paranormal, which was just the Blair Witch redone ten years later in a house (ten years is the usual time period to make something that's a copy SEEM original), the rest were REALLY good movies. The other part is that so much shit comes out now, that when something is really good, people will rate it higher based on lack of competition from everything else they are seeing.
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Post by Shrykespeare Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:26 am

Which fits, given that October is the time of year when the best (quality-wise) stuff is SUPPOSED to come out.
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