September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

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September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by W on Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:18 am

Usually I'm pretty conservative in estimating films to come out, but for a change, I decided to throw my rational side out the window and make some bold (some semi-bold and some contradictory) predictions about the current leagues. Some of these will completely suck, but others--hopefully--will have some merit to them. Here are ten of them:

1. Couples Retreat is going to take 2 weekends!

It is quite obvious--unless Zombieland is going to turn into The Hangover--that Couple Retreat will handily take care of its opening weekend. So, why am I predicting it to win a second weekend? Well, both of the big openers that week have some flaws with them. First Where the Wild Things Are is very artsy-fartsy and has some crazy looking puppets that make it look non-mainstream. It will either tank or be an absolute beast. Secondly, while Law Abiding Citizen may look great to the Fantaverse, action films haven't really been bringing in the big bucks. Neither have action films with Gerard Butler or Jamie Foxx. Even if Citizen has modest success (I think it will), Vince Vaughn in Wedding Crasher/Old School mode is going to be tough to beat. Thirdly, though Buscemi likes The Stepfather, I don't.

2. Surrogates is going to hit (or come close to) $100 M.

It's Bruce Willis. It's robots. And its heavily promoted. This is this year's Eagle Eye, I just wish it were priced that way.

3. Fame is going to gross less than $25 M.

I've been saying for months that this is Rent all over again and it's looking like more and more people agree with me. A couple of weeks ago it was all the rage, but it's died down now with a less than stellar marketing campaign and a small target audience.

4. More Than a Game is going to have double digit PTA points.

I've already heard of it being plugged on Sportscenter. It opens in three basketball markets from what I can find--one in New York, one in LA, and one in Cleveland--and adds only six theaters the second week. It's got the NBA and Nike behind it. It goes through its last scheduled expansion just before the NBA season starts. I gotta think this one is going to hang around for a while.

5. Old Dogs is going to have a $50 M 5-day weekend.

Wild Hogs made a $44 million 5-day in March. This one has the same star, same director, and same feeling.

6. Capitalism will not receive a single T5 point.

Documentaries tend not to do well in box office gross. The "Corporations are bad" angle was beaten to death earlier this year and if it were released then it would have done well. Now though, with Democrats in control, who is there to vilify? CEOs? I don't think people will tune in for that.

7. Saw VI will be the first of the Saw franchise to see an up-tick from its predecessor since Saw III.

It's just a feeling I have coupled with the fact that it gets two weekends before the end of October.

8. Pandorum is going to open to $10 M+.

I keep seeing it everywhere. Maybe a large, quick, advertising campaign will work?

9. The Men Who Stare at Goats is going to TANK!

It just looks to weird for the normal person. We'll see what happens when The Informant opens. I may change my mind if that does well.

10. Where the Wild Things Are is going to be a hit!

Well, it either is or it isn't. I guess I'm covering my bases for Couples Retreat. It could be a $100 M hit considering its a loved kids book and its different from the norm.

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W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by Buscemi on Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:39 am

I completely agree with Old Dogs. $50 million opening weekend will be no sweat.

Fame will make more than $25 million. Hell, those are Dance Flick numbers that you're talking about.

Capitalism will get a few Top 5 points. The director's movies always do well in the big markets and that combined with a weak October lineup will help that happen.

I'm still afraid that the multiple delays and poor early word will hurt Where The Wild Things Are. Also it's supposed to be a kids' film but the studio is targeting it to adults. That is not good.

Couples Retreat has Law Abiding Citizen and The Stepfather in its second week. A Saw-esque crime thriller with two big names for the men and a PG-13 horror film from a major studio (Sony, not Summit or any of the indies) for the teenagers. Couples Retreat will probably be 2nd or 3rd in the second week.

And last, Saw V also had two weekends in October and we all know what happened there.

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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by W on Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:41 am

For Saw, it's more a feeling I had plus I needed one more to make 10.

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... W ... is fascinating. No other word for it. - Roger Ebert

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed Sep 16, 2009 12:25 pm

I definitely agree with #2,5,6,9,10...


Fame will do at least $50M methinks, although I believe it can hit $75.

And yes, More Than A Game has ESPN behind it. But so did X-Games 3D... It'll probably win the PTA matchup its OW, but it should top out at 7 or 8.

I don't if Saw will go UP and but it'll at least stay on course with the norm $30M OW and $50-$60 total.

Couples Retreat will be big, but curiousity alone should make Where The Wild Things are win it's OW. The problems begin with its legs...
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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by brockman81 on Wed Sep 16, 2009 6:01 pm

Couples Retreat is everywhere on TV...I saw at least 5 previews last night (not on the same channel either)...AND it looks hilarious...I think it's going to be huge and win 2 weekends like you said W...WTWTA looks incredibly weird...I loved that book when I was a kid, and was pumped when I heard about this movie, but after seeing the trailer I'm just going to wait for DVD.

W, can you please change your avatar?? Am I the only one that thinks it's extremely creepy? Jesus, I can't even look at it!
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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by geezer9687 on Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:17 pm

No brockman, you are in fact, not the only one.

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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by W on Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:42 pm

I thought it was hilariously creepy like the film it represents... That's why I made it. I'm planning on changing it in 18 posts (17 now) assuming I get a new rank at 1900.

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?F$&* it, Dude, let's go bowling." -- Walter Sobchak

... W ... is fascinating. No other word for it. - Roger Ebert

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by brockman81 on Wed Sep 16, 2009 10:56 pm

How about you knock out 17 quick posts of just jibber jabber and get it over with? Thanks!
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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by W on Wed Sep 16, 2009 11:14 pm

I'll see what I can do. (There's one right there)

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... W ... is fascinating. No other word for it. - Roger Ebert

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by brockman81 on Fri Sep 18, 2009 12:36 am

Couples Retreat just got changed to a PG-13 rating. That's good news for anyone who puts in on their slates. Although I'd rather see an R rating for my viewing pleasure.
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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by Buscemi on Fri Sep 18, 2009 12:41 am

I'm surprised that Universal didn't have to cut anything to get a PG-13.

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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by undeadmonkey on Fri Sep 18, 2009 12:54 am

the only one i really dont agree with is Surrogates, Bruce Willis is no Shia Lehoweveryouspellhisname
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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by geezer9687 on Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:52 am

You're right.... he is way, way better

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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by Buscemi on Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:58 am

September 25th estimates:

Fame: 3,000+
Surrogates: 2,700+
Pandorum: 2,400+
Pool Boys: removed from schedule
I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell: 115

I would have posted this in the Box Office page but I figured that it would tie in with this also.


Last edited by Buscemi on Fri Sep 18, 2009 3:02 am; edited 1 time in total

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The film lasts 99 minutes. The terror lasts forever.
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Don't see it alone.
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Re: September Predictions Sure to Go Wrong! (9/18)

Post by W on Fri Sep 18, 2009 2:11 am

Yeah... I don't understand this. Surrogates seems like a 3000+ film to me and I still think Fame is going downhill. Maybe the distributor doesn't realize it?

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... W ... is fascinating. No other word for it. - Roger Ebert

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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