RS Tracking for December 5th and Future

notfabio

PUNISHER: High Single Digits
NOBEL SON & CADILLAC: Under 3

FUTURE:
BEDTIME: Low 50's (4 day)
SEVEN POUNDS: High Teens
TALE OF DESPEREAUX: Still Under 12 million
Day The Earth Stood Still: Low 40's
Yes Man: Mid 20's

I noticed that 7 Pounds stock was falling and didn't know why. Now I do. It actually went down in tracking. Is the Will Smith hot streak over?

Bedtime is looking pretty impressive though.

Not convinced of Seven Pounds's bad tracking. Does anyone remember how Pursuit of Happyness was tracking three weeks prior to its release?

I AM convinced that Sandler is going to break the record for his all-time high film (Big Daddy). It's gonna be humungous.

As for Cadillac and Nobel Son - "Under 3" doesn't help a whole hell of a lot - given that they're being released in under 800 theaters.

MTC said that Nobel Son was tracking at "under 1".

I don't think Bedtime Stories has been marketed well. I haven't seen the trailer in theaters in front of anything.

Pursuit of Happyness was tracking in the teens before its release, Shryke.

Yes Man ain't looking too good.

They played the trailer for Bedtime Stories in the lobby of my local theater about 5 or 6 times yesterday when i saw Transporter 3 and i saw the ad 10-12 times during football on Thursday. They are advertising and it will be huge.

I've seen the trailer with:

Eagle Eye
Max Payne (yes, Max Payne)
Saw V (fuck yes, Saw V)
Madagascar Escape 2 Africa
Quantum Of Solace

and they've probably shown it with the Disney titles so it should be big.

MTC Tracking from notfabio

XTRMV looks like under a dozen locations.

Punisher: 7
Cadillac: 2
Nobel: Under 1

From the LA Times

Jack Foley, president of theatrical distribution for Focus, said that the movie, set before the 1978 assassinations of San Francisco Supervisor Harvey Milk and Mayor George Moscone, was appealing to a broader audience than the company had anticipated and would be playing at 60 more theaters by the coming weekend.

Fox Searchlight's "Slumdog Millionaire," in its third week, pulled down $1.8 million and is doing so well that the company is releasing the movie to 600 theaters on Dec. 19 instead of the 300 it had originally planned.

So Mil seems to be expanding rapidly to somewhere between 90 and 100 theaters by next weekend. Frost/Nixon is set to open at only 3, and should easily take the weekend per theater unless it bombs hard. Slumdog Millionaire isn't going wide until December 19, giving it 2 more weeks of potential PTA earnings. Three points is a lock for this week, but can it overtake Milk and grab 4? We'll have to see how many theaters it adds this weekend. I doubt it will be more than 15. Very good news for them that they are going to double its wide release theater count. It could reach over 20 million before the year is out. And, depending on how well Doubt, Gran Torino and the Reader do, it could go higher than the 17 PTA points I had it pegged for.

I'm going to say that Slumdog will be like The Darjeeling Limited and die in wide release. Against Jim Carrey, Will Smith and to a lesser extent, Matthew Broderick, the average person won't want to see an Anglo-Indian on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?.

Meanwhile has anyone noticed that once Slumdog came out, that Happy-Go-Lucky basically died? I mean, that was supposed to the major UK film in Oscar consideration. I guess people still can't bear to watch Mike Leigh's vision of harsh reality (though this one was a light comedy, ala Life Is Sweet).

Dammit, I'm really surprised that Slumdog Millionaire has been this big. I completely missed that boat on that one. I'll think it'll do fine in wide release, especially with all the Oscar buzz surrounding it.

Tracking on Seven Pounds is not convincing...

geezer9687 wrote:From the LA Times

Jack Foley, president of theatrical distribution for Focus, said that the movie, set before the 1978 assassinations of San Francisco Supervisor Harvey Milk and Mayor George Moscone, was appealing to a broader audience than the company had anticipated and would be playing at 60 more theaters by the coming weekend.

Fox Searchlight's "Slumdog Millionaire," in its third week, pulled down $1.8 million and is doing so well that the company is releasing the movie to 600 theaters on Dec. 19 instead of the 300 it had originally planned.

So Mil seems to be expanding rapidly to somewhere between 90 and 100 theaters by next weekend. Frost/Nixon is set to open at only 3, and should easily take the weekend per theater unless it bombs hard. Slumdog Millionaire isn't going wide until December 19, giving it 2 more weeks of potential PTA earnings. Three points is a lock for this week, but can it overtake Milk and grab 4? We'll have to see how many theaters it adds this weekend. I doubt it will be more than 15. Very good news for them that they are going to double its wide release theater count. It could reach over 20 million before the year is out. And, depending on how well Doubt, Gran Torino and the Reader do, it could go higher than the 17 PTA points I had it pegged for.

I wouldn't put it past Milk to still put up a pretty healthy PTA number. It won't match it's OW, but I think it'll be able to stay above $15,000 in the very least. And boy oh boy, Slumdog! What a treasure.

I read an interesting Slate article (courtesy of the IMDb hit list, I think) that wondered whether 'Milk' would have made a difference on the Prop 8 vote in California if it had come out earlier. And even now, with the results of that referendum the way they are, does the film become something more, something that much more pursuant to today rather than history? It's something to consider.

Some important theater counts for the weekend:
Frost/Nixon: 3, should be a lock for the PTA win
Extreme Movie: 3, will it bomb completely?
Slumdog Millionaire: 78, expanding 29 more theaters, I hope this doesn't damage its PTA too much.
Milk: 99, expanding 63 theaters, can it maintain that high PTA in 3 times as many theaters? Will Slumdog beat it?
Nobel Son: 893, still going to be a bomb
Cadillac Records: 686, don't understand why this couldn't get more theaters than Nobel Son
Punisher: War Zone: 2508, 10 million could be possible, but not much more.
Twilight is also adding 195 theaters, shouldn't see as steep a drop as last week.

Around here, we're getting Cadillac Records but not Nobel Son. Especially interesting since this is an extremely white area.

Does Hunger count in this season?

Hunger does count. It's only opening in one theater, but it only counts for one week. unless the studio decides to keep it going.

geezer9687 wrote:Some important theater counts for the weekend:
Frost/Nixon: 3, should be a lock for the PTA win
Extreme Movie: 3, will it bomb completely?
Slumdog Millionaire: 78, expanding 29 more theaters, I hope this doesn't damage its PTA too much.
Milk: 99, expanding 63 theaters, can it maintain that high PTA in 3 times as many theaters? Will Slumdog beat it?
Nobel Son: 893, still going to be a bomb
Cadillac Records: 686, don't understand why this couldn't get more theaters than Nobel Son
Punisher: War Zone: 2508, 10 million could be possible, but not much more.
Twilight is also adding 195 theaters, shouldn't see as steep a drop as last week.

Out of these movies, we're getting Punisher and Slumdog Millionaire here in Pittsburgh. Of course, we alreasdy have Twilight, and I'm pretty sure none of those additional 195 theaters are here as you couldn't find any theaters not already carrying it on multiple screens. Guess we love our vampires here almost as much as our Steelers. Saw no mention of us getting Extreme Movie either.

Here in Sac, looks like we got Milk, Cadillac Records, Nobel Son, and we got a Christmas Tale, but that may have been there last week...not sure if I checked. Also, about Christmas Tale, it's freaking 2 hr 45 min long!

My town of Terre Haute, Indiana has Nobel Son, but no Cadillac Records. I didn't really expect either, but maybe this bodes well for some people getting knocked out in the Streak Game? Hope not, because I would be included.

DHD


Punisher bombs - Only 4+M expected now!
Frost/Nixon expected to win PTA
Twilight 14M
Bolt 9M
Australia 7M
Qos 6.5 M
Cadillac 4M

Good result for Cadillac. Better than I expected.

In Phoenix (a big honkin' town) we have:

Nobel Son - 18 theaters
Cadillac Records - 6 theaters
Milk - still only one theater
Frost/Nixon - none

Does anyone know if Steve Mason posts his tracking results on another website?

I think all that stuff at the beginning of his recent columns about 'following' him on Twitter might be a clue to that. I'm not sure, though; I don't use Twitter so I'm unfamiliar with its terminology. I also saw a link to him as a blogger on either SlashFilm or RopeOfSilicon the other day.

And in the clearly-giant Northeast Wisconsin market, we have... nothing of those four 'limited' releases. The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas is playing on like, 5 screens though. Ha.

It did just go wide, Mr. I.

Right, that's what I'm saying. We only get the limited stuff once it expands wide enough.

Friday Numbers from the-numbers.com:

1. Four Christmases New Line Comedy $5,748,000 3,335 $1,724 $58,411,000
2. Twilight Summit Entertainment Drama $4,425,000 3,620 $1,222 $129,780,000
3. Bolt Buena Vista Comedy $2,384,000 3,516 $678 $71,969,000
4. Australia 20th Century Fox Drama $2,247,000 2,721 $826 $26,116,000
5. Quantum of Solace Sony Pictures Action $2,132,000 3,423 $623 $147,000,000
6. Punisher: War Zone Lionsgate Action $1,558,000 2,508 $621 $1,558,000
7. Transporter 3 Lionsgate Action $1,531,000 2,626 $583 $22,412,000
8. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa Paramount Pictures Comedy $1,304,000 3,317 $393 $161,879,000
9. Cadillac Records Sony Pictures Drama $1,224,000 686 $1,784 $1,224,000
10. Role Models Universal Comedy $892,000 1,908 $468 $59,935,000
- Nobel Son Freestyle Releasing Thriller/Suspense $120,000 893 $134 $120,000
- Frost/Nixon Universal Drama $49,000 3 $16,333 $49,000