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(9/4) September-November Pricing List Slate Anchors

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Post by W Tue Sep 01, 2009 11:31 pm

These bad boys will take up a big chunk of change. Well, maybe not this season but most seasons they will. This time you can fit in the four highest priced films into your slate and still have room for The Blind Side. This time the three highest priced films are in the last month of the season as we start in what is basically the middle of nowhere for the cinema year and end at the beginning of a large upswing. Expect a lot of back loading.

Anyways, here are the top ten highest priced films and how to play them in Box Office:

1. New Moon $26 (11/20) HSX: $222.61 - While its a safe bet, you won't get maximum value out of this title because of its cutoff date and price tag. New Moon would have to do remarkably better than its predecessor to completely justify this price. All else equal (drops, I mean) this one will have to hit a $95 M opening for a 5x. However, if you have a lot of cash and don't know where to spend it, you could do worse.

2. 2012 $26 (11/13) HSX: $154.81 - I don't think you'll get full value out of this one either and I'm optimistic about it. With 50% drops 2 weeks in a row, this one would have to have a $75 M opening to hit a 5x. That's assuming medium sized drops and I certainly think small drops are out of the question considering its genre. This is another safe pick with limited upside in its current place.

3. A Christmas Carol $24 (11/6) HSX: $122.85 - People came out to see Jim Carrey as a cartoon elephant. If 2/3 of those people come to see him as a cartoon Scrooge, then you've got it made here. The only thing is that I'm not sure if that's possible. It should, however, be just as viable as New Moon and 2012.

4. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs $19 (9/18) HSX: $83.82 - This could be a must have, but I won't go that far. I will, however, say that it is the most stable of any film in September. 3D cartoons that open very wide and are non-Burtonesque (i.e. all but Coraline) have not dipped below $100 M yet. This one could dip below that point a little and still be a good payoff. I would grab it up.

5. Where the Wild Things Are $19 (10/16) HSX: $119.69 - This one could go for $150 Million. It could also be a Speed Racer-like flop. I'm leaning towards the second one, though it could be anywhere in between. This is the one that drives me nuts trying to predict it.

6. Couples Retreat $18 (10/9) HSX: $85.29 - Here are some numbers of Vaughn in similar roles as his in Couples Retreat: Wedding Crashers: $200 M, The Break Up: $118 M, 4 Christmases $120 M. Even his worst, Fred Claus, grossed $72 M. If you assume that this film will be between Fred Claus and 4 Christmases, you can't really go wrong.

7. Surrogates $16 (9/25) - Bruce Willis is back in his old form with this one. I don't think I need to tell you that action/sci-fi are some pretty good genres for him. I'd snap this one up instantly.

8. I Can Do Bad All By Myself $16 (9/11) - Tyler Perry is one of the things you can count on (like Saw) to hit a specific range of grosses. That was until Madea Goes to Jail when he hit $90 M for the first time ever. This one won't go that high, but I think it'll be the #2 grossing film on his resume. Expect $60-70 M, which is a little lower than a 5x.

9. Saw VI $15 (10/23) HSX: $67.70 - You know the drill. Someone will put someone else in a horror trap and we'll have to try an figure out who's doing it and/or why they're doing it. What you need to know is that each consecutive Saw film after the second one (the one that grossed the most) has went down in gross. Saw V hit under $57 M and this one will probably do under that since it tends to lose audience each year. So, while its profitable to them, it would be safe to say that it won't be too profitable for you.

10. Fame $13 (9/25) HSX: $41.70 - To quote the horse from Ren and Stimpy, "No, sir, I don't like it." People keep telling me this will do well, but can't tell me what audience is going to watch it. People that watched musicals in the 80s is not a large target audience. Pass.

Super Secret Slate Anchor Strategy


Super Secret Strategy #1: You remember how I said that you won't get complete value out of New Moon and 2012? Well, I'll assure you that you're not going to crap out on them either. In the box office super leagues, if all you want to do is survive the next round, go ahead and grab BOTH New Moon and 2012. Then combine them with other high-priced, relatively safe picks like A Christmas Carol and Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs to create a safe slate that will assure you a pass into the next round. Me? I'm going to try and keep my reputation up. :)

Super Secret Strategy #2: You remember how I said that I have no clue what Where the Wild Things Are is going to do? Well, take a relatively safe, late pick and if it looks like the Wild Things are going to explode the box office, trade down and take it. If not, you have New Moon, A Christmas Carol, or 2012 to fall back on.

Super Secret Strategy #3: You remember how I said that this or that won't hit a 5x? Well, at this time of the year you have to curtail your expectations of films. There's basically no chance that you are going to pick a $9 film that's going to go for $250 M+ like The Hangover did. Here, the best you can hope for most times is a 6-7 x film and those are few and far between. So, picking a film that gets a 4-4.5 x with a larger portion of your budget is viable where in the summer/winter it really wasn't.
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Walter Sobchack
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Post by Shrykespeare Wed Sep 02, 2009 6:44 am

Good column, W. Yeah, Wild Things is driving me freakin' nuts too...
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Post by A_Roode Wed Sep 02, 2009 6:55 am

I'm leaning towards the bust side of the equation. The arthouse will like it but the rest of us will look at the trailer say 'WTF is this?' and head on down to the next theatre. Too eccentric for mass appeal.

(No doubt I'll be eating my words, *lol*)
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Post by BarcaRulz Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:00 am

I also can't get a read on it. I've rarely ever found it this hard to get a read on a movies boxoffice. Based on a very popular book, but the trailer is too eccentric. Got some big names, most of them are dressed up as god knows what those creatures are. Has mass appeal, but will it be well received by those masses?

Too many 'buts' IMO for a $19 movie.
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