Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

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Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by Buscemi on Tue Aug 25, 2009 5:52 pm

Here it is, the second edition of my predictions series (now known as Pros and Cons). This time, we cover the dreg month of September. This is usually a month of studio dumps and films with absolutely no prospects. But sometimes, there are September films that do emerge as hits (such as Sweet Home Alabama, Rush Hour, Eagle Eye, Double Jeopardy and Burn After Readng). Here is my analysis of the titles of September 2009.

September 4th

Gamer
Pros: Gerard Butler, lots of ads appearing on television and the Internet
Cons: video game movies don't do very well, the Neveldine/Taylor team has yet to see a film break out
Box Office: 12/30

All About Steve
Pros: Sandra Bullock, Bradley Cooper
Cons: long-delayed, early September is not a good time to open romantic comedies
Box Office: 9/24

Extract
Pros: Jason Bateman, Ben Affleck, Mike Judge
Cons: mostly cult interest at best
Box Office: 8/22

September 9th

9
Pros: big name cast, dark animation has been doing well lately
Cons: may be too weird for some
Box Office: 15 (3-day)/20 (5-day)/45

September 11th

Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself
Pros: Tyler Perry, Madea
Cons: Tyler Perry doesn't do well outside of February
Box Office: 24/52

Sorority Row
Pros: first horror film of the Fall, Summit does a good job promoting genre films
Cons: the Fall horror slate is crowded
Box Office: 20/51

Whiteout
Pros: Kate Beckinsale, based on an acclaimed comic book
Cons: long delayed, being released in a crowded horror slate
Box Office: 11/30

September 18th
Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs
Pros: 3-D, the only bonafide family film of September
Cons: Andy Samberg, film may be considered a bastardization of the book
Box Office: 33/90

Love Happens
Pros: Jennifer Aniston, Aaron Eckhart
Cons: will it get a good ad campaign?
Box Office: 14/40

The Informant
Pros: Matt Damon, looks similar to Burn After Reading
Cons: Steven Soderbergh is hit and miss, could be a little high art for many
Box Office: 9/30

Jennifer's Body
Pros: Megan Fox, Diablo Cody
Cons: Megan Fox, Diablo Cody, horror comedy
Box Office: 4/9

September 25th
Fame
Pros: musicals have been doing well lately, awareness seems to be rather high right now
Cons: will this remake be turned into a High School Musical clone?
Box Office: 28/92

Surrogates
Pros: Bruce Willis, science fiction
Cons: will the target audience ever forgive Jonathan Mostow for Terminator 3?
Box Office: 25/70

Pandorum
Pros: combines sci-fi and horror, has an Alien meets Saw look to it
Cons: the crowded field of Fall horror titles, keeps bouncing around release dates
Box Office: 7/18

The Invention Of Lying
Pros: Ricky Gervais's vast talent
Cons: long delayed, Ricky Gervais didn't bring them in with Ghost Town last year
Box Office: 5/14

And Pool Boys was covered last month. I don't want to cover it again.


Last edited by Buscemi on Wed Aug 26, 2009 12:49 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by W on Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:41 pm

TP films outside of February have nothing to do with Madea-less films and one more dramatic Madea film being there?

I don't think many people care about Cloudy being bastardized or not...

I don't know what JB will do, but I can tell you its more than $9 M with a $4 M opening...

Fame: Mad Dead wrong...

American People: "Who the Hell is Jonathan Mostow?"
Really, you have to be aware that the American people for the most part don't care who directs what unless its a big name. Scorsesse doesn't even increase box office by name alone (he does it by quality from what I can see). Spielburg, Bay, and very few more can push the box office one way or the other.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by Buscemi on Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:55 pm

If you go to the IMDb forums, a lot of people hate what Mostow did with Terminator 3 (I am in the minority, I like Terminator 3). It's just like why people hate Joel Schumacher. I still can't see Surrogates being huge because of what happened with Terminator 3.

And it is known that horror films have bad legs. Bad horror films have really bad legs. So does horror comedy and barely-promoted horror films. Jennifer's Body is yet another example of that.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by geezer9687 on Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:58 pm

I didn't even know who directed Terminator 3.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by W on Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:15 pm

Going to the IMDB forums is like going to a donut connoisseur and asking him about Krispy Kreme. They just aren't average people...

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by NSpan on Wed Aug 26, 2009 12:09 am

Buscemi's Pros and Cons

Pro: Smells nice. Owns lots of movies.

Con: Doesn't always smell nice. Owns lots of movies. I mean lots.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by Buscemi on Wed Aug 26, 2009 12:16 am

I bet you've got a lot more than me, Film Czar Of Austin.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by Buscemi on Wed Aug 26, 2009 8:13 am

Bump.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by silversurfer19 on Wed Aug 26, 2009 8:25 am

I doubt many even know Cloudy was a book. And as W mentions those that do probably don't care too much anyway. I think it looks great and I think it should pass $100m and close in on Bolt type numbers.

How many dvds do you own Boussh. you seem to purchase a lot. And I mean a lot. Mainly because of your cheap dvd stores over there. If they were that price over here no doubt my 1000+ dvd collection would be a lot bigger. I wish there were cheap dvd stores. Cheapest we get over here is like $10 NZD ($15 USD)...

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by Buscemi on Wed Aug 26, 2009 8:33 am

About 660. I often buy my DVD's cheap (used, markdown or in bundles of 3 for $12, 4 for $20 or whatever). The most I had probably paid on a DVD was about $35.

And I imagine people know that Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs was a book. It is a staple of children's libraries across the United States.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by silversurfer19 on Wed Aug 26, 2009 8:47 am

Oh right. Maybe it's a lot bigger in the States then. I'd never heard of it until I saw the trailer, and I've never seen it in any of the children's book stores either.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:16 am

Most of these seem about right. Still think you're letting your personal opinions influence your predictions on Jennifer's Body, $9M total?!?! It'll make more than that OW.

I think The Surrogates might be big, but they need to start some marketing for it.

I'm still on the fence on I Can Do Bad All By Myself. Yes, it has Madea, but she's barely in the trailer and it seems to be really serious. Much like his non-Madea flops. Kinda looks like he throws Madea in for a few minutes to sucker people into the theater, that's basically what happened in Madea Goes To Jail. I'm skippin' it on all slates for now though.
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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by Buscemi on Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:23 am

Banks, did people see Transformers or Transformers 2 because of Megan Fox? No.
Do people ever go see big-budget action movies for the girl? No.
Do people ever see movies starring the girl from a certain action movie? No.

This is especially true when the actress can't act or if the person in question is not known for her acting. Also, the film is being released by the distributor's dead sub-label (Fox Atomic). When this is the case, the distributor would rather dump it and write it off as a loss rather than give it a good ad campaign (the same thing happened with two films this weekend, Fox Atomic's Post Grad and Paramount Vantage's The Marc Pease Experience).

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by silversurfer19 on Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:29 am

Yeah, I think Surrogates has potential to do well. It got the best reception of all the new trailers last night in front of Inglorious Basters (Avatar included), and it seems Bruce is most definitely back. Reminds me a little of Total Recall and can definitely see it hitting $60m+.

I also think Jenifer's Body is very low. Definitely closer to $40m total, while I think Extract will struggle despite my own hopes for it. I imagine 9 will follow in Desperaux's footsteps rather than Coraline and hit the $45m Boussh suggests, while Gamer could really break out.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by Buscemi on Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:34 am

I see Gamer having one good week then dropping. Video game movies are hit or miss at the box office and Death Race (the film that everyone has been comparing it to) grossed $35 million on its $60 million budget. The highest grossing film from the Neveldine/Taylor team grossed $26 million (Crank). And then there are the other films that Gamer looks like (such as Stay Alive and The Condemned).

As for the film, I don't expect very good word of mouth. The film looks like another "been there, seen that" type film and Michael C. Hall looks to be going in a camp direction as the villain. And as I have said before, camp is dead.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by silversurfer19 on Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:36 am

Actually, I've heard nothing but great word of mouth from anyone who has seen the trailer. I think it's legs won't be too bad, and will turn out one of the better video game movies.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by Buscemi on Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:38 am

I said the film, not the trailer. I feel that the film will disappoint audiences in the same way that every video game film since Mortal Kombat has.

I don't expect the concept of a great video game movie to show up until Neill Blomkamp does his Halo adaptation.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:42 am

All your reasoning on Jennifer's Body is sound, but come on? $9M total? I think it'll at least hit $25M-$35M.

And Gamer will probably do the exact same numbers as Death Race, although it doesn't look as cool.
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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by Buscemi on Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:48 am

Look at the numbers of the Fox Atomic releases. The highest grossing titles in the short-lived label were sequels. Everytime they attempted to do a non-sequel with someone that Fox wanted to launch as a star, the film failed miserably. The reasons? One, nobody really wanted to see those actors in their own star vehicles and two, (20th Century) Fox didn't even bother to try to convince them otherwise. If Jennifer's Body does the numbers that you guys are suggesting, it will be far and away the highest-grossing Fox Atomic title ever. I can't see that happening because the studio wouldn't want that to happen. To them, dead things should remain dead. And giving a large-scale ad campaign to a movie from a dead label or company is a liability to the studio, even if the film is really good.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by silversurfer19 on Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:51 am

I actually much prefer the trailer to Gamer over Death Race. I never found any motivation to watch that movie. Also, maybe now is the time video games movies will start being good. We have Prince Of Persia and Spyro coming out soon too....

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by Buscemi on Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:54 am

Spyro? Seriously, Spyro? How is that going to work as a big-budget movie?

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by silversurfer19 on Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:59 am

Seriously. They have the guy who directed Spawn behind the camera (take of that what you will) and Gary Oldman and Elijah Wood on voice duty. Guess we'll have to wait and see on how it progresses.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by Buscemi on Wed Aug 26, 2009 10:01 am

Sounds like a straight-to-video cartoon. Spawn's director has been stuck in straight-to-video land since that movie (he's done Frankenfish and Garfield's Fun Fest since then) and Gary Oldman will do anything for a paycheck nowadays.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by silversurfer19 on Wed Aug 26, 2009 10:05 am

However, Oldman seems to be on a run of successful movies at the moment; Harry Potter, Batman Begins, TDK, The Unborn with A Christmas Carol, Planet 51 and The Book Of Eli still to come.

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Re: Buscemi's Pros and Cons (September Predictions)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed Aug 26, 2009 10:05 am

Megan Fox is already a star.
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