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(8/28) September Box Office Possibilities

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(8/28) September Box Office Possibilities Empty (8/28) September Box Office Possibilities

Post by W Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:37 am

FYI: This was wrote between Saturday Night (technically Sunday morning) and now, so if the HSX prices vary a little, that's why.

I hope you liked the breakdown of how I (try to) do things when it comes to box office. Now here is the first real column, which is a preview of September in honor of the start of the Sept-Nov leagues. Here's how everything goes: I'm going to rate each film on the 5 star system, 5 being a must-have and 0 meaning that no one in their right mind would touch it. The numbers are the prices for JUL/AUG/SEPT leagues and the HSX price. The HSX price is basically the average of what a bunch of box office geeks (like us) believe a film is going to make in its first four weeks of release. If you want JUST the opening weekend numbers, divide it by 2.8.

Now that the technical stuff is out of the way... September is a weird time consisting of kids going back to school, but fall not quite here yet. Its known for being a minefield of bad picks with its middling picks even being on the low side. Last year Eagle Eye seemed HUGE and made just a little over $100 M. The year before, Halloween and 3:10 to Yuma were tops for an opener in the mid $50 millions when all was said and done. Its safe to say that all of those $150 M, $200 M, and $300 M picks are well behind--and ahead--of us at this point in the year, so its a different game. Its time to find those one or two films that will break out and do the Emily Rose/Jackass 2 thing and hit in the $70-80 M range. Are there any to be had this year? Lets check them out.

9/4
All About Steve ($8/$10/$9, HSX: $41.80) So far this CENTURY, there have been two September rom-coms that have done well. One was "Just Like Heaven" and the other was "Sweet Home Alabama." What do they have in common? Reese Witherspoon. The past three years we have had two rom-coms, both with Dane Cook in them and we all know how those turn out. But, there's good news. Sandra Bullock hooked up with an actor off of a hot role earlier this year to the tune of approximately $160 M. If you're thinking Sweet Home Alabama numbers ($127 M), don't. If you're thinking "Just Like Heaven" numbers ($48 M), and you don't think you can get better numbers elsewhere, go ahead and grab it. I'm thinking of doing so myself.
Carriers ($4/$5/$4, HSX: $9.16) This was said by multiple Fantanians as being opened in a limited amount of theaters. We all know what that did to Midnight Meat Train last year. If you don't, here's a clue: it only made $83,361.
Gamer ($8/$9/$10, HSX: $50.85) It looks like Death Race, smells like Death Race, but I'm not sure if it tastes exactly like Death Race. I think a bigger lead actor (Gerard Butler) and a more specialized (and at the same time wider) audience could add a bit more gross than Death Race's sub $40 M to this one. Look for the $45-50 M range.
Extract($4/$6/$7, HSX: $37.47) Mike Judge comedy doesn't typically do too well at the box office. I'm looking at you, Office Space ($10.8 M), and I'm looking at you, Idiocracy ($450,000 gross). What makes Extract better than these two? I'm not sure. Awareness seems low in my neck of the woods and its opening limited, so that's another strike against it. I would pass, actually, I did pass.

9/11
9 ($9/$11/$9, HSX: $48.33) Is it a better made, more Oscarish "Corpse Bride"? Well, its got the same producer and the same scriptwriter working on it. Will this fall into the $50 or so million that Corpse Bride did? I don't think so. Corpse Bride seemed more mainstream than this and thus looks like it would make more money. I'm leaning towards lower here, even though it does already have an 8.1 rating, which sometimes means good legs. I didn't touch it.
Sorority Row ($NA/$8/$9, HSX: $34.02) In a year with films like Last House on the Left, The Haunting in Connecticut, and Friday the 13th making some seriously decent bank you'd think that the trend would continue here. Well, I'm not too sure about it. Two weeks before, we will see two films that have decent expectations (FD4 and H2), so there's a possibility that the audience will be tuckered out from their horror. But 18-22 year old girls and horror films tend to mix well at the box office. I'm torn with the box office possibilities for this one, but right now I'm staying away from it.
Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself ($14/$16/$16, HSX: $69.72) You may not know it, but Tyler Perry is one of the busiest (and most successful) guys out there. He does everything--acts, directs, writes, produces, etc--for two films a year not to mention two seperate comedy tv series. His last effort on the big screen where he did all of that (Madea Goes to Jail) made over $90 million. One thing is for sure, his most popular character, Madea, is worth a lot to a film. His Madea films average $65 M while the non-Madea films average only $41 M. So, if you think its going to hit the Madea average, and I do, I'd go for it.
Whiteout($7/$9/$8, HSX: $40.07) This thing looks like The Thing a little bit, don't you think? I honestly have no idea how this will pan out. 30 Days of Night did almost $40 M and it looks a little like it sans vampires. It looks like "30 Days of Jason Vorhees" to me. It has decent marketing, but I'm just not sure that Antartic films tend to do well at any point in the year. I'd look at Gamer or Steve... Maybe even Zombieland if you can get it. They're all around the same price and look like better prospect (not necessarally better films) to me.

9/18
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs($11/$19/$19, HSX: $79.82) If you're looking for this September's "Eagle Eye", here it is. I mean this stricly from "a film that you know is going to do well" perspective. Here are the list of 3D Animated Films that opened in at least 2,000 theaters: Up, MvA, Ice Age, Bolt, Coraline. At least 2,500 theaters nixes Coraline. That leaves nothing but $100 M grossing films. Add IMAX intake, a decent marketing campaign that started in theaters with Monsters vs. Aliens, a couple of funny trailers and you have the most "can't miss" film of the entire month. Though it'll cost you a decent portion of your budget, I don't feel you can go wrong with this one.
The Informant!($NA/$12/$10, HSX: $45.24) This one looks a little too arthousey for the mainstream. It looks like Burn After Reading without Pitt and Clooney. I think I'll be staying away from this one and expect about what HSX is, though maybe as a final gross and not a 4 week one. $45 million for $12 is not a good deal.
Jennifer's Body($7/$11/$10, HSX: $53.96) I'm not sure about this one. On one hand I think it will do decently well ($55-65 M overall) but on the other hand, it looks like a large flop. I'm going with the first prediction myself considering this film has a sex symbol in a sexy role ala Obsessed, which hit a whopping $68 M in the September of Spring (April).
Love Happens($5/$7/$7, HSX: $28.54) This is probably Nights in Rodante trying to be like Sleepless in Seattle. In other words, if a romantic comedy breaks out in the month of September, it will be the one with Sandra Bullock in it, i.e. not this one. It is worth a thought considering the price, though.

9/25
Fame($6/$13/$13, HSX: $41.32) Why is everyone high on Fame? I have no idea. I've heard people say "Musicals are doing well nowadays," which I guess is somewhat true since Mamma Mia! counterprogrammed against The Dark Knight for almost $150 M last year, but does this look like Mamma Mia!? I don't think so. Here's a list of musicals that have came out since 2004 (in order of total gross): Mamma Mia!, Hairspray, Dreamgirls, HSM3, Sweeny Todd, Phantom of the Opera, Rent, Across the Universe, The Producers, De-Lovely, Idlewild, Beyond the Sea. Which one does it most closely resemble? I would say Rent. Rent made less than $30 M and I wouldn't spend how much Fame is on the prospects that it would have to double Rent's box office to be a decent pick.
The Invention of Lying($4/$9/$6, HSX: $44.14) This is my most anticipated film of September (Surrogates would be #2). That said, Gervais' only effort on American soil came last year in the same month with Ghost Town. While the film was pretty enjoyable, it only made $13 M. This one has more stars and looks even more funny. While its prospects seem better, I have a bad feeling that its not going to do better enough (is that good wordage?) to spend this much on it. Strike some of that, in the new leagues it's possible it could help you for $6.
Pandorum($6/$8/$7, HSX: $24.28) This one is DOA. Pretty much no one knows what it is or would even recognize the name if you said it to them. I think the only film that has been moved less than this is "The Accidental Husband". They may be able to save it if they have a good trailer and they still have time to get one out there. So watch out because the premise sounds decent, but remember that if no one knows what it is it has no possibility of doing well at all.
Surrogates($7/$15/$16, HSX: $69.10) It looks a lot like I, Robot, though original. And... Its got Bruce Willis in a sci-fi role. His worst sci-fi film box office wise is 12 Monkeys at $57 Million which translates into almost $80 M in today's dollars. I don't think I need to tell you that that's a good sign. We haven't seen a real Bruce Willis film in two years and I think the audiences will be there for it. So, take it.
Capitalism: A Love Story($NA/$6/$5, HSX: $8.61) Why would people flock to see a "kick them when they're down" film? I don't know. I don't think they will, so lay off this one.

To Sum It Up (based on Box Office potential and price)
YES
Cloudy: ****.5
Surrogates ****.25
-----------------------
THINK ABOUT IT
Jennifer's Body ***
Tyler Perry ***
Steve **.5
Gamer **.5
9 **.5
Sorority **.5
-----------------------
ONLY CONSIDER IF SOMETHING DRASTIC HAPPENS
Whiteout **
Informant **
Love Happens *.5
Invention of Lying *.5
-----------------------
DON'T TOUCH THESE EVER!
Pandorum *
Extract .5
Fame .5
Carriers 0


Last edited by W on Tue Sep 01, 2009 11:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Buscemi Tue Aug 25, 2009 4:58 pm

I'd say don't touch Jennifer's Body. Horror comedies always seem to flop and out of the horror comedies that have been released, this one looks the worst. Even many of the horror diehards aren't touching it.

Though I wouldn't touch Pandorum, I think it will outgross The Invention Of Lying. Pandorum at least has an ad campaign.
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Post by W Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:10 pm

I moved Invention of Lying up one group just because of the drop in price. Really, for $9, I wouldn't even consider it. I'm not sure about Jennifer's Body. But I am sure that someone will go just for the Ms. Fox vs Ms. Seyfried fight just as they went for the Beyonce v. Ali fight. Also, They're marketing it pretty well.
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Post by W Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:21 pm

Also, I don't get much comedy out of it...
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Post by Buscemi Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:56 pm

Jennifer's Body is not another Obsessed. Obsessed did well because it was an urban film. Jennifer's Body is just another horror comedy that will barely make a dent at the box office.
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Post by geezer9687 Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:14 pm

Buscemi wrote:I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX I HATE MEGAN FOX
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Post by W Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:20 pm

I think Obsessed did well because of all of the (allusions) sex in the trailer... I haven't seen it though.
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Post by Buscemi Tue Aug 25, 2009 9:04 pm

Here's another reason why Jennifer's Body won't do well: the competition. It faces a cartoon, a Matt Damon movie, a Jennifer Aniston movie, a Tyler Perry movie and a straight horror film. There is no way that it could manage a Top 5 finish against that.
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Post by W Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:20 pm

Here's a couple of reasons why I think it'll do decent...

1. This kind of dialogue:
Needy Lesnicky: I thought you only murdered boys.
Jennifer Check: I go both ways.

and 2. The eye candy:

(8/28) September Box Office Possibilities MV5BMTMxNzYwMjc1Ml5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwNDI3MDE3Mg@@._V1._SX270_SY400_
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Post by Buscemi Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:36 pm

The dialogue is some of the worst that I have ever heard. Even Akiva Goldsman can write better dialogue than Diablo Cody.

And if people really want to look at Megan Fox for 90 minutes, they will rent the unrated DVD or download it. It's cheaper and it allows them to whack off.
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Post by MisterInformative Sun Aug 30, 2009 2:54 am

Yeah, but bad dialogue doesn't automatically mean failure -- look at Star Wars -- it just gives it a better chance. (Star Wars is a bad example, but I'm all about exaggerating a smidge to prove a point.)

At least Jennifer's Body looks better than any of the other horror movies in September -- Sorority Row, blecch, Whiteout, yawn, Pandorum, WTF?
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Post by Buscemi Sun Aug 30, 2009 2:58 am

Whiteout looks more like a thriller to me, especially if you see the new trailer.

Pandorum looks pretty damn entertaining and it could be a fun mashup of Alien, Saw and Cube.

Sorority Row is a slasher/revenge film and it might be fun to see an undead sorority sister hack up other sorority sisters for ninety minutes.
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Post by MisterInformative Sun Aug 30, 2009 3:02 am

I guess I can see how Whiteout looks interesting to some people, it just doesn't appeal to me at all. It was the same with Julie & Julia. I never doubted that there was an audience for it, I just wasn't part of it.

Another factor that causes my hesitation about Pandorum is that it's distributed by Overture, who's never really had a hit -- Righteous Kill and Traitor are about as close as they've come.

Same thing with Sorority Row, by Summit -- aside from Twilight (and, I guess, Knowing) -- they've basically had a string of stinkers. And how far has Carrie Fisher fallen? Yikes.
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Post by Buscemi Sun Aug 30, 2009 3:18 am

Overture will get a hit with Law Abiding Citizen in October. This looks like a film that will do everything right for them.

And when Summit thinks they've got a hit, they'll release it very wide. I expect Sorority Row to be promoted and released the same way that Knowing was promoted and released.
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Post by delfinasu Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:24 am

W wrote:The HSX price is basically the average of what a bunch of box office geeks (like us) believe a film is going to make in its first four weeks of release. If you want JUST the opening weekend numbers, divide it by 2.8.

It was 2.8... It's 2.7 since... I don't know exactly - months ago...


To Sum It Up (based on Box Office potential and price)
YES
Cloudy: ****.5
Surrogates ****.25
-----------------------
THINK ABOUT IT
Jennifer's Body ***
Tyler Perry ***
Steve **.5
Gamer **.5
9 **.5
Sorority **.5
-----------------------
ONLY CONSIDER IF SOMETHING DRASTIC HAPPENS
Whiteout **
Informant **
Love Happens *.5
Invention of Lying *.5
-----------------------
DON'T TOUCH THESE EVER!
Pandorum *
Extract .5
Fame .5
Carriers 0

In the end, Surrogates wasn't a good choice, as well as Jennifer's Body... BUT how many of us have selected them on their slates...

In rest, a great column! Keep up the good work!

I hope you'll join our Fantaverse Moguls League on HSX - see details: https://thefantaverse.forumotion.net/free-for-all-f5/hsx-users-let-s-do-our-league-t134-15.htm#27935 just waitin' 4 your HSX username and I'll send you an invitation Wink
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