July 31st Estimates (Funny People, Aliens In The Attic, etc.)

Here are Mase's early Friday numbers:

1.Funny People $8 million Friday/$22 million 3-day
2.G-Force $6.2 million Friday/$20.7 million 3-day
3.Harry Potter $5.5 million Friday/$18 million 3-day
4.The Ugly Truth $4.5 million Friday/$13.6 million 3-day
-Aliens In The Attic $2.8 million Friday/$8.2 million 3-day
-Transformers 2 $1.5 million Friday/$4.8 million 3-day
-The Collector $1.2 million Friday/$3.1 million 3-day

No early estimates on The Hurt Locker or 500 Days Of Summer as of yet.

http://stevemasonsmog.typepad.com/710_espns_smog_steve_maso/2009/07/funny-people-getting-fewer-laughs-than-apatow-classics-with-just-8m-friday-a-likely-22m-3day.html

Good to see ol' Mase is up and predicting again. Are there a few of you out there who feel just lost without him?


ETA:

Mother of mercy. If those numbers that Mase predicted hold up, that means that Dantic and Scripps will BOTH be over $1B, and will finish LESS THAN $1M APART. Holy moly. I said this would be decided by inches, and it looks like I was right. Wow!!

Damn it Funny People! why couldnt you do better.

DHD Numbers breakdown

Funny People #1 / $8.6 million Friday / $25.6M Weekend
G-Force #2 / $5.7M Friday [-40%] / $19.1M weekend / $69M Cume
Harry Potter #3 / $5.2M Friday / $16.6M Weekend / $252.8M Cume
Ugly Truth #4 / $4.4M Friday / $14M weekend / $55.5M Cume
Aliens In The Attic $2.8M Friday from 3,106 venues / $8.5M weekend

ERC BO has 500 Days Of Summer at 2.5

BTW did i tell you that i hate those rodents?

Once or twice.

Aliens In The Attic tanked so hard lol

Sunday BOM estimates and Super/Regulars Leagues preliminary final results:


Regulars Box Office - "Shawshank Redemption"

WINNER: Buscemi - the only slate to cross the $1B mark.


Regulars Ultimate - "Top Gun"

WINNER: Shrykespeare - my last three choices (In the Loop, Adam, The Cove) provided enough PTA points to put me over the top.



ULTIMATE FY ROUND 5

IMs go to mutard7 and Buscemi, the latter of whom jumps from 11-2 thanks to nine PTA points.

Eliminated are NSpan and delfinasu. Brockman loses his IM. The final ousted player is either Mister Informative or becs, who are so close for that last spot that it will come down to UR changes. If they finish in a tie, they both move on.


ULTIMATE HY1 ROUND 5 - FINAL

mutard7 is the winner. Congratulations, sir!



BOX OFFICE FY ROUND 5

Dantic earns and IM. Second place goes to Scripps, who already has one.

As anticipated, Mister Informative, jess_sayin, wesvolk and SWarehouse are eliminated.


BOX OFFICE HY1 ROUND 5 - FINAL

Dantic holds off Scripps for victory. Both players broke $1B, but Dantic's victory comes by just over $6M, or 0.6% difference. Close one! Way to go, sir!

I was expecting Funny People to disappoint but not this bad. Especially since they're predicting a 2% Sunday drop for it.

Harsh drop for G-Force, its second weekend was lower than Beverly Hills Chihuahua's second weekend. Ugly Truth is not looking at $100 million anymore. Transformers 2 will have to get pushed over $400 million and Public Enemies over $100 million. Great for (500) and Orphan and pretty big PTA for The Collector compared to the rest of the Top 10. Not too good for Aliens. It looks like G.I. Joe has the weekend to itself next weekend.

Some very disappointing numbers there. G-Force has a shit hold, Harry Potter continues dropping, Aliens in the Attic opens very soft, and Funny People pretty much blows.

Surprising weekend.

Funny People didn't exactly bomb, but $22M isn't gonna cut it.

G-Force drops harder than Orphan? Unexpected.

Aliens In The Attic with a single digit OW. Not exactly surprising, but still, this can't help FOX.

I don't how The Hangover and The Proposal are still managing 20% drops.

I don't know what's up with my shit luck for picking PTA winners, but Lorna's Silence finished 8th in PTA! Dammit.

The Dardenne Brothers are usually reliable in PTA but when you put them against two Sundance darlings and a movie from the director of Oldboy, seek other options.

BarcaRulz wrote:Some very disappointing numbers there. G-Force has a shit hold, Harry Potter continues dropping, Aliens in the Attic opens very soft, and Funny People pretty much blows.

HP5 also had a $17.7 million third weekend despite having a $32 million 2nd weekend compared to a $29 million 2nd weekend for HP6.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:I don't how The Hangover and The Proposal are still managing 20% drops.

I thought it was decided a long time ago not to be suprised by anything The Hangover and The Proposal did.

And I hear Funny People has a B- CinemaScore. Earlier this summer I thought R-rated comedies would be coming out like crazy in the next few years. Now, I'm not so sure.

However, the current Harry Potter is still at a pace to pass Harry Potter 5. This one has $13 million on it after 19 days of release and it should have no problem getting that remaining $37 million needed to pass it.

Come on, Buscemi... you won the Regulars league! And got an IM in the Ultimate FY! Gloat, will ya?

Oh yeah, that.

I'd like to thank W for encouraging me to take The Hangover, the throngs of moviegoers being dumb enough to see Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen more than once and myself for passing on Terminator Salvation, Land Of The Lost, Year One, Bruno and Funny People.

There, are you happy now?

Yeah, that'll do.

Buscemi wrote:Oh yeah, that.

I'd like to thank W for encouraging me to take The Hangover, the throngs of moviegoers being dumb enough to see Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen more than once and myself for passing on Terminator Salvation, Land Of The Lost, Year One, Bruno and Funny People.

There, are you happy now?

Yeah! Something I did caused someone else to win!

Transformers about to pass $400M still boggles my fucking mind.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:Transformers about to pass $400M still boggles my fucking mind.

Two reasons why it's most likely going to happen:

1.Paramount added in the Puerto Rican grosses (and probably Mexico and the rest of Latin America as well)

2.Audiences are stupid and will go see anything (example: Spider-Man 3, everyone hated it and it was still the biggest film of 2007)

In other news, Ice Age: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs is now the highest grossing animated film of all-time in terms of international numbers. It has grossed $541 million internationally (and it is still going).

That brings up a good point, Busc. If Paramount is adding other countries grosses, and no other films are doing so, how should we use that as far as gameplay? Doesn't seem like an even playing field, as far as our game is concerned.

But there's nothing you can really do about it, its just the way it is. We have to use the numbers they report.

Buscemi wrote:

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:Transformers about to pass $400M still boggles my fucking mind.

Two reasons why it's most likely going to happen:

1.Paramount added in the Puerto Rican grosses (and probably Mexico and the rest of Latin America as well)

2.Audiences are stupid and will go see anything (example: Spider-Man 3, everyone hated it and it was still the biggest film of 2007)

This is something that could only come from a teenager... People aren't stupid, they just don't like what you like. They KNOW what THEY like. Movie nerds like us as well as most critics across the country did not like Transformers (I haven't seen it yet and am reserving judgement, but in general), but WE are not the audience that these summer blockbusters are shooting for. The average joe working in an office or a factory want to escape everyday life or have something to take their kids to. And, there are kids out there that were waiting to see the film. I would argue that the average person didn't think that Spider-Man 3 was too bad and/or they didn't listen to those who went before them. Plus, a film like one in the Spider-Man franchise hits every single age group that frequents theaters. If it were true that they will go see anything, then Speed Racer would have made hundreds of millions.

My brother actually liked both Transformers 2 and Spider-Man 3. And it doesn't more average than him...